A common term we hear today is recency bias. You know, you hear of a disease that you have never heard of before and it has symptoms x, y, and z. And suddenly you notice those same symptoms. Not unusual and somewhat human nature. I'm certainly not an expert researcher but I do try to be objective and not jump to conclusions. But I find that I am subject to Outcome Bias.
I've got several threads on a Queen Anne pistol I bought a couple of years ago. I did a little research before I bought it but I really had no idea of what I was buying.
What I was hoping for was a flintlock that was made during the revolutionary war period. So far the research narrows the date of manufacture between 1776 and 1814. But the research isn't complete. It would be super cool to have a firearm that existed in the United States before it was the United States. Although I initially thought it was a trade gun made in England for sale to the colonies, I later learned it was made of the higher quality for sale to the domestic (British) market. It did have some pretty intacate engraving.
So that's neat, could it be a silver mounted pistol?
The pistol does have some pretty intricate silver inlay in the grip. I searched for photographs of similar pistols described as silver mounted and some appeared to have the barrel and receiver silver plated. So off I go on an almost microscopic search to see if after 230 years there might be a trace of silver plate deep in a protected area of the engraving. And lo and behold I found two miniscule places showing the slightest hint of silver in an engraved mark on the side of the hammer adjacent to where the hammer enters the top of the receiver. I thought wow this is turning out to be a better buy then I expected.
Since then I've learned two things. The pistol was made and marketed as silver mounted and the technique for silver plating wasn't invented until 15 years AFTER the company went out of business!
The lesson here is that I went looking for traces of silver and found it where it didn't exist because of my Outcome Bias.
I've got several threads on a Queen Anne pistol I bought a couple of years ago. I did a little research before I bought it but I really had no idea of what I was buying.
What I was hoping for was a flintlock that was made during the revolutionary war period. So far the research narrows the date of manufacture between 1776 and 1814. But the research isn't complete. It would be super cool to have a firearm that existed in the United States before it was the United States. Although I initially thought it was a trade gun made in England for sale to the colonies, I later learned it was made of the higher quality for sale to the domestic (British) market. It did have some pretty intacate engraving.
So that's neat, could it be a silver mounted pistol?
The pistol does have some pretty intricate silver inlay in the grip. I searched for photographs of similar pistols described as silver mounted and some appeared to have the barrel and receiver silver plated. So off I go on an almost microscopic search to see if after 230 years there might be a trace of silver plate deep in a protected area of the engraving. And lo and behold I found two miniscule places showing the slightest hint of silver in an engraved mark on the side of the hammer adjacent to where the hammer enters the top of the receiver. I thought wow this is turning out to be a better buy then I expected.
Since then I've learned two things. The pistol was made and marketed as silver mounted and the technique for silver plating wasn't invented until 15 years AFTER the company went out of business!
The lesson here is that I went looking for traces of silver and found it where it didn't exist because of my Outcome Bias.