Have we hit bottom?

Unless we know what it costs to make one, how can we know where the bottom is? Any guess without that info is pure speculation.

You can’t make a profit on volume if you have to sell it for less than cost. Can’t stay in business, either.

AlexanderA said:

Prices of AR's are going to go up as the election heats up and their legality becomes an issue. Stock up on them now. If you can't afford complete guns, buy stripped lower receivers.

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My crystal ball says the same thing, the demand is going to sharply rise as the next election nears, and probably after it as well.

As the political pendulum swings back again to the political party that shall not be named but starts with a D, and it most certainly will at some point. We will see the rise in consumer cost of AR's, and just as inevitably as the political swing happening, the non named party will most certainly push for more regulations and restrictions on them, if not outright bans. So as mention by a previous poster here, the political climate will force a rise in price for a temporary moment until they are banned, at which point they may not even be legally transferable after that. Hard to say not knowing, but I would bet my savings that it will follow in those general directions.

I'm considering donating one of my ARs to my Rotary Club for a fund-raiser lottery.
I have two others that I like better, after all.

.455_Hunter said:

How many people are going to buy an AR-15 style rifle?

There is a large percentage of the population who, because of legal restrictions or personal beliefs, will NEVER own one.

The balance of the population that COULD own one and WANT to own probably already have one, or two, or three...

That leaves the COULD own, but don't yet and want to buy now. That is not a large number in the current climate.

Business models developed during a "panic" are seldom successful long term.

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Agree. ..and My state has banned them, so I wont be buying one anytime soon.

forty_caliber said:

The law of supply and demand will eventually turn this around.

There has been a historic high demand for this item. Companies have work to meet that demand to the point that just about anyone that wants one has one or more thus driving the price down.

If / when sales begin to diminish or the profit margin falls too far the same companies will decrease the supply or offer only higher end models with a better profit margin thus driving prices up again.

The manufactures want to stay in business. Eventually the marketplace will reach an equilibrium but the days of the $300 AR are numbered.

All of the economics 101 stuff aside. I have ask myself, is a cheap rifle with a bunch of plastic parts is something that I want at any price? For me personally, I have always tried to obtain only the best for my safe even if it means doing without for a while. Craftsmanship, reliability, and quality being key factors in the decision. It was these qualities along with historical significance that attracted me to this in the first place.

.40

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What plastic parts are you worried about in an AR-15? Other than polymer receivers, I’m not aware of much in an AR-15 that is made of plastic other than furniture and 99% of AR-15 furniture is plastic of some sort.

marksman13 said:

What plastic parts are you worried about in an AR-15? Other than polymer receivers, I’m not aware of much in an AR-15 that is made of plastic other than furniture and 99% of AR-15 furniture is plastic of some sort.

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Exactly 4 parts on an AR15 are plastic. The grip, the forend, the stock, and the little plastic tip on the buffer. None of which are particularly fragile.

someguy2800 said:

Exactly 4 parts on an AR15 are plastic. The grip, the forend, the stock, and the little plastic tip on the buffer. None of which are particularly fragile.

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Yeah. That’s kinda my point.

marksman13 said:

Yeah. That’s kinda my point.

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Yep I’m agreeing with you

illinoisburt said:

Stock and forearm might be polymer. There are plenty of metal options for those if you don't like plastic. Can even get wood if wanted

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Correct. None of my forends are polymer. You can get all metal grips and buffers as well if you so desire to waste your money.

Frankly, so long as the quality remains acceptable I'd like to see working ARs get down to the $200 range or less. Let them become the .22lr of the center fire world.

That said though anything firearms related is highly politically sensitive as we all know. The 2020 elections are upcoming and who knows what will happen then?

If Trump wins we may well see $200 ARs. If he loses I wouldn't be surprised to see PSA ARs hit $2,000 as they struggle to keep up with demand!

Given how few people in the United States actually own a firearm of any type I think those of us who are firearms enthusiasts should stock up on ARs.

There may come a time when we will be glad we did.

PSA had $29 lowers around the 4th. I don’t see how a business could beat that by much in this Country. When folks are getting out of the market it’s because they can’t sell the product they make and pay employees, vendors and taxes.

jmorris said:

PSA had $29 lowers around the 4th. I don’t see how a business could beat that by much in this Country. When folks are getting out of the market it’s because they can’t sell the product they make and pay employees, vendors and taxes.

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I bought a few lowers at $29 to stockpile “just in case”. Don’t see how parts could get much cheaper, but I also thought that a year ago.

greyling22 said:

And new shooters turn 18 every day and buy guns.

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We are also dying off every day.. I certainly have more discretionary income to blow on AR's than I did as a 18yr old (or 21 old in some states).

OP:
I do think we are at rock bottom.. just look at all the AR centric places that have closed shop. If your waiting to save another 10 bucks the clock is ticking 2020 is right around the corner.

An AR15 that you buy for home defense or target shooting & just use it like it comes in mfg standards is a
common sense investment.
BUT,,, if you buy one then another & another & so on then start adding nonsense attachments to them
which really don't improve your chances in a shootout. Then you have fallen into the sinkhole of
dollars that never ends, plus you will never get your money back for it until the next election looks
bad for us gun owners & then you can triple your investment.
But like the illinoisburt is asking, is this how low can it go? If the election goes our way, the AR will be
sold by the bucket full.

ACES&8S said:

Then you have fallen into the sinkhole of
dollars that never ends, plus you will never get your money back for it until the next election looks
bad for us gun owners & then you can triple your investment.

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Or you will be left holding worthless pieces of iron and aluminum that isn't worth scrap prices..

Alaskan Ironworker said:

I still dont have one, but im AR curious. Everytime I find a good deal it seems im broke. Im waiting til they cost $200 lol. I havent much use for a 5.56, but I could easily pull the trigger on a .450 bushmaster, .458 socom, or 50 beowulf. These big bore ar’s dont seem like they have gotten any cheaper the last few years. Like roughly $800 and up where I live. Anyone think these will drop in price?

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Since we are talking less expensive ARs, Bear Creek has these for what I would call a great price. Buffalo Outdoors did some reviews on them too and they are not junk...just less expensive.

https://www.bearcreekarsenal.com/bc...er-mid-length-gas-system-1-24-twist-w-15-mlok

earlthegoat2 said:

Since we are talking less expensive ARs, Bear Creek has these for what I would call a great price. Buffalo Outdoors did some reviews on them too and they are not junk...just less expensive.

https://www.bearcreekarsenal.com/bc...er-mid-length-gas-system-1-24-twist-w-15-mlok

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Exactly! Paired that exact upper with a complete PSA lower, added a FAB Defense recoil reducing stock and I have a 450 for $370 minus mount and scope. And it’s a shooter. No kidding. 3 shots touching at 100 yards with factory 250gr FTX.

Checking the local,Ks., Armslist shows the low end for AR like rifles to be below 500-600 for PSA versions. It creeps up for Ruger,Windham and SW and then gets higher for the fancier types. Many of the less expensive ones are listed at shops so there's tax and such..

If AR15s go any lower makers will have to buy from China to stay competitive.

PSA had complete rifles for $280.

I received a complete upper from PSA today, had just enough time to pin it before family commitments tore me away. Price was $269.99 for what I’d bet is the identical upper I bought last year for my wife at $359.99 and the lower priced one came with Magpul MBUS to boot.

That’s $90 cheaper plus a $90 set of sights added in or an $180 price drop in 16 months. Same barrel length, material, profile, chambering, BCG, upper, flash hider, and I’m pretty sure handguard. Even subtracting the sights there’s a 25% drop in price which belabors the point that margins were healthy or associated costs have decreased. As PSA continues to expand it is most likely because they are profitable.

Hard to imagine they can get much cheaper.
I do not think they are very profitable at this point. I think some people are selling them close to cost when you add the cost of paying their employees and maintaining their equipment. And what is close to cost for them would be below cost for someone not as well established.

I think the established people already setup are the ones that can even afford to exist selling them at cost, and just the cost of setting up a new company selling the same product would require charging more than their already existing competitors to create a profitable business with a decent product.

One thing that may become less available over time is exactly how many varieties of quality aftermarket parts you can purchase to turn any gun into exactly what you want. You have to sell a lot of inexpensive machined parts to pay the salary of each person making tens of thousands of dollars every year and still have enough profit for the risk and liabilities of running a business to be worth it. The best time in the market for AR aftermarket parts, especially the machined metal ones was actually probably 3-5 years ago, and the variety and number of producers is already shrinking, though it was so massive that even smaller it is huge.
The profit margin has dropped enough that innovation seems to have stalled as well and seeing truly unique components that do something new or better less common.
R&D combined with skilled machining and prototyping required a much higher cost. Today you have to ask too much of the price of a complete firearm for just a single aftermarket component to make innovation and invention worth it. So it is just copies of what people were doing some years ago when enough money was involved to come up with improvements or truly unique components.