How Long Before The Next Trendy Round Surfaces?

.40S&W has seen a decline versus its previous sales but based on what I see on the ground at ranges it's still being shot WAY more than .45ACP. .380 got an uptick due to pocket pistols like the LCP but pretty much everything else has been losing ground to 9mm.

That aside if I was every going to personally design a pistol round I'd go smaller rather than bigger. Something like a shortened .30 Carbine or a 7.65 French Longue. You wouldn't be able to get it quite up to 9mm Luger power levels but the French cartridge already exceeded 9mm Mak levels, and you could probably get 20-ish rounds in what would be a 17-round 9mm Luger mag, or make a single stack gun even more slim than the 9mm's that are out now.

A modernized 38 spl or 357 mag with a much shorter case, with new short cylinder and frame revolvers to go with them.

Both were made as long as they are in part to prevent these higher pressure rounds from being used in weaker revolvers.

Being able to drop the lengths of the cases, cylinders, and frames down to someing 9×19 size would make much shorter guns for ccw.

Plan2Live said:

.40 S&W and .357 Sig saw their heyday come and go. 45 GAP had a decent law enforcement following for a while but that seems to be waning as well.

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LOL! The idea that .40 has seen its heyday come and go while 45 GAP is "waning as well" is hilarious. .40 remains orders of magnitude more common than 45 GAP. Maybe you didn't mean to suggest that 45 GAP is somehow more prevalent than 40, but that's how it read to me.

As for the rest, the next big shift will come, if at all, from a re-evaluation of the "binary" (either good-enough or not-good-enough) analysis that is popular these days. It's a silly model, IMO, but once you adopt it, something that barely meets the thresholds is the rational answer.

BlueHeelerFl said:

A modernized 38 spl or 357 mag with a much shorter case, with new short cylinder and frame revolvers to go with them.

Both were made as long as they are in part to prevent these higher pressure rounds from being used in weaker revolvers.

Being able to drop the lengths of the cases, cylinders, and frames down to someing 9×19 size would make much shorter guns for ccw.

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I could get next to that.

ATLDave said:

LOL! The idea that .40 has seen its heyday come and go while 45 GAP is "waning as well" is hilarious

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no chit... Pretty sure less than 10 agencies in the USA ever even issued GAP.. While Major Power factor alone means 40SW is shot hundreds of thousands of rounds a weekend.

As for the next "big round"? It will be some sort of little girl round. Look at 6.5 in rifles.

mgmorden said:

.40S&W has seen a decline versus its previous sales but based on what I see on the ground at ranges it's still being shot WAY more than .45ACP.

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IIRC, when Lucky Gunner published ammunition sales figures, .both 40 S&W and .45 ACP declined, but .40 S&W declined much faster and it crossed over just as they stopped sharing that data. At that time .45 ACP was about 10% of 9mm sales and .40 S&W was something like 8%. I don't see any change in the trends since then, aside from the revival of the .380. The sales of .45 GAP did not even register at the scale. It sold less than .357 SIG.

P.S. One interesting note is, the sales of .45 ACP guns is nowhere near as bad as sales of .45 ACP ammunition. People still buy those, but do not shoot them.

Plan2Live said:

So how long before the next magic cartridge becomes all the rage and what do you suppose that round will be?

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It's already here and it's called 10 mm. Police agencies dropping .40 S&W released the 10 mm round to stay on its own in the marketplace.

Plan2Live said:

So how long before the next magic cartridge becomes all the rage and what do you suppose that round will be?

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I don't know the when or the what but I'm looking forward to the hatred and discontent it will cause.

Seems most of the calibers I shoot are "passe", and loosing popularity

40, 357 Sig, 10mm, 9X25

mgmorden said:

.40S&W has seen a decline versus its previous sales but based on what I see on the ground at ranges it's still being shot WAY more than .45ACP.

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Perhaps at your range. At mine I find far more 9mm and .45. Heck, I see more 10mm than .40.

Which is good, because I don't load .40.

New magic cartridge? I think it's gonna be those light for caliber solids that look like screwdrivers, folks seem to like them and I could see them going trendy if the price comes down.

I would love to see the short .38 like BlueHeeler mentioned above. I think that has a justification for it and I would be really interested especially, if one could make it from existing cases and load with current bullets. Doesn't take a lot of room to put a few grains of Bullseye or the like into it.

BlueHeelerFl said:

A modernized 38 spl or 357 mag with a much shorter case, with new short cylinder and frame revolvers to go with them.

Both were made as long as they are in part to prevent these higher pressure rounds from being used in weaker revolvers.

Being able to drop the lengths of the cases, cylinders, and frames down to someing 9×19 size would make much shorter guns for ccw.

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You mean like the 9mm Federal?

BlueHeelerFl said:

Being able to drop the lengths of the cases, cylinders, and frames down to someing 9×19 size would make much shorter guns for ccw.

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Is a new cartridge necessary though? Look how short the cylinder is on this:

https://www.nighthawkcustom.com/legacy/sky-hawk-9mm

It is here. But it's no six-five.
Introducing...

The Seven Millimeter Raptor Magnum!

Flat meplats be-damned!
The new mono-metal hinged trident shape of the Super Speed Seven bullets opens wider than a starved pelican when the grunion run!
Precut petals Open On Anticipation Of Impact©, revealing thousands of small shark teeth forged directly into the skives.
One hundred percent organic metal, these are nature's best wound channel opener ever devised!

Magnum speeds from Service sizes!
A large capacity case necked down from a Fifty Action Express gives plenty of displacment for Hot Rod performance!

Ultimate in capacity!
The twenty eight caliber rounds triple stack in the magazine for a total of thirty six shots of "Stop what you are doing!".

Supremely reliable!
With a mean chamber pressure of a cool hundred thousand kilopascals, there is plenty of remaining gas to operate a firearms action, or launch a small brass satellite into low Earth orbit.

Special grips help stave off the effects of premature arthritis, enabling use for tens of rounds a week!


Wait.
Hold it.

Didn't....? Yeah, there was a new field pistol. Some unobtainium Italian looking thing...
This!

https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2017/11/22/fk-brno-field-pistol/

Pretty neat, but my trendy new round makes anyone a hundred yard, sun M.O.A. pistol shooter. No experience necessary.
And all it needs is a drop in Nineteen Eleven barrel and mags, no special pistola.

zaitcev said:

Is a new cartridge necessary though? Look how short the cylinder is on this:

https://www.nighthawkcustom.com/legacy/sky-hawk-9mm

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A short cylinder like that would require some way to keep the shooter from flame cutting your thumb off.

I think it’s going to be quite awhile. With the political ranting and bluster about gun control going on right now, bringing a new cartridge to market has got to be a scary proposition for any manufacturer.

What ever happened to that 327Federal Magnum? I never hear of it anymore.

I could not tell you about sales, but sure have seen a whole lot of post about the 32., especially since Underwood and Leheigh came out with their versions.

What no love for 327 mag where you can get one more round (20%) more capacity.

mgmorden said:

That aside if I was every going to personally design a pistol round I'd go smaller rather than bigger. Something like a shortened .30 Carbine or a 7.65 French Longue.

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Been done in search for a new Eurocop load. Two companies, three rounds depending on velocity and trick bullets. Seems no better received than the 1970s 9mm Police.

BlueHeelerFl said:

A modernized 38 spl or 357 mag with a much shorter case, with new short cylinder and frame revolvers to go with them.

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The wacky staff at Gun World magazine did a feature on a .357 Short, no doubt anticipating short cylinder revolvers to match. There would be the 9mm Federal problem with old guns. Already too many .32 ACPs shot in .32 S&Ws.
Maybe if it were made a .364 (9.2mm Makarov), .367 (9.3mm), or .375 (9.5 mm).

S&W made some .38 Super revolvers. On L frame so no size saving, but it is a route.


I anticipate a .22 LR Surefire. When those powerful military and police calibers are banned, maybe you can still get a license for a .22. Improved rimfire priming methods and materials will give centerfire ignition reliability. Heavy plated bullets will ensure good feeding.

beeenbag said:

A short cylinder like that would require some way to keep the shooter from flame cutting your thumb off.

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It's a revolver, so just use the thumb cross-over (support hand's thumb behind the hammer).

SHOT Show 2020 starts Jan 20, so I would expect teasers on the new wonder rounds to start mid December.

11mm.