What's with all the AR-15 lead times?

There's a lot of talk about this online. Some say that it's just lots of tax returns are buying up ARs and parts, others think it's more grim. A lot of rumors and you know what that can do.

They're selling that fast. Check out bcm when they get new bolt carrier groups in the don't last more then a day or two at most. Some shops have low overhead so there is a longer wait but in general ARs and parts are flying off the shelves.

It's gonna hurt

It's gonna hurt when the bubble burst and the suppliers will be trying to dump them on a market that has already did the hysteria buying and have no more money to spend. But for those of use who bought them cheap will be best to sit on them for a long time. It's a vicious cycle and all ways repeats it's self.

It's because...

Obama is taking away all our guns.
No, wait a minute. That was January. Didn't happen. Sorry.

There are huge increases in the metals commodity markets.
No, sorry. We said that back in February. Never mind.

They are eliminating importation of all foreign made guns and part.
No, wait, that never happened.

It's gasoline prices. The cost of transportation is driving everything up.
Yes, that's it. This is April. That's the April boogey man.


There's your answer. Definitely it's the price of gas at the pump.
That's why you need to buy now, at inflated prices, and wait forever for delivery.

Why is it always the jerks at the gun store repeating all these lies?
You think it's because they want to sell us something?

I dont think the average gunny is that dumb. What you are seeing here are the collective results of millions of gun owners. I have been to the local gun store in my area, and they are busy every time. All comers. Look at the national government stats for the last 2-3 years, We've been on a record setting buying pace. There are now years in the record books that have montlhy sales on par with what was before a monthly spike due to the typical Christmas and hunting season rush......

This is voting of the most basic kind, it required thought and applying precious and limited resources. I dont think a few items on that list could generate this kind of traffic, IMO.

There's enough reporting of this to indicate it's a real "shortage" situation. How long it will last is anyone's guess. The true cause is anyone's guess. I think it's probably widespread anxiety over the economic and social situation the US is in, but that's conjecture.

I am willing to bet that all major suppliers are maintaining low inventory stocks coupled with high demand equals long lead times and higher prices JMHO

I can't speak for everyone and everywhere but I don't believe its a case of low inventory. Our sales are way up as are many of the local gun shops I visit.

The cause I haven't a clue. Though tax returns seem to be a common theme at the moment.

Just buy one off the rack and customize from there. There are a few metric tons of them around here. Im surprised I still have color vision.

The bubble DID burst, what you see is the backwash of having put out a huge amount of AR's two years ago, and now, the market went soft. Reputations got hurt, the recession DID settle in, and things cooled off enough the makers had a breather and aren't going to get trapped in high stocking levels, discounting, and suppliers in backlogs. They discovered you CAN wait it out for a disposable cash discretionary income item, because fickle customers keep cancelling orders to jump on something else just because it's available.

It's a reaction to all the Children of the Mall who have to have the latest fashion in guns, and they aren't going to tie their future prospects to a shipping container of hope that might fall overboard. Bluntly, the American consumer abuses retailers, demanding it NOW, having no product or brand loyalty, and constantly hammering stores for discounts and fire sale pricing. Retailers get a little jaded after jumping through hoops to get the One Gun To Rule Them All, just for a phone call cancelling the order. They picked up an S&W down the road.

Self disciplined consumers who know what they want, plan ahead, and get in line are successfully buying guns every day. Businesses are dealing with serious buyers with real money committed to what they have to offer. It's the fad shooter jumping on the bandwagon finding no room, or even knowing where it's taking them.

Don't you know? Its the ATF buying them to walk over to the drug cartels.