"Got .22 Long Rifle Ammo ?"

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Seems like there's plenty out there, just hard to get at under 12 cents a bullet, 10 cents is my top end, this ammo should be going for 5-7 cents a bullet. If my wife didn't shoot a hundred rounds or more when we go to the range, I'd just put the 22 on the shelf for a while.
 
I went to the range today. 12 lanes, a few folks waiting, and only one guy with a kid and a .22. I fear for the future.
 
photoguy190 said:
I keep seeing people say the manufactures need to raise prices to real world prices. I don't see why they would want to do this. They are currently selling as much as they can produce. If they raise prices they will sell less.
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That doesn't mean they would make less profit.

If you are selling out at maximum production capacity, basic economics indicates that you should raise the price.
 
I was looking a few days ago, and as far as I could tell, nobody had any .22LR at all. One place I went into had put some out about an hour before I got there, and of course, it was gone about 15 minutes before I walked in.

If I want .44 mag, it's all over. If I want some .38spl, it's out there too. Even some 9mm, I can get. I don't need any of those, I need some .22. Oh well, maybe if I have a decent next month, I'll buy some on gunbroker. If you shop carefully, you can find it for close to .10 a round. Last time I bought some, I think I paid .03 a round. It wasn't all that long ago.

Guys, if you have a ton of it, control yourselves and stop buying it for a while! It will make the whole shortage thing disappear pretty quickly.
 
There's just a WHOLE LOT more people buying (22) ammo than just a few years ago.
And the people that only bought a box or two on the way to the range in years past, are now are buying all they can find.
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Ding! Ding! Ding! Winner!
 
In industry, there is a system for restocking inventory called Kan-Ban. The short of it is that you keep your inventory relatively small; only what you actually need in the foreseeable future and appropriate to the time it would take to replenish that inventory. If something is readily available, you keep a very small inventory, while if things are difficult to replenish a larger inventory is warranted. You only replenish when your inventory falls below a certain level, where you have enough stock left to cover the time it normally takes to replenish your supplies.

I think that most shooters, whether occasional or frequent have a sort of intuitive kan-ban system running in their heads regarding ammunition. They buy when they start getting low. Due to the gun control madness, some people decided to horde. The increased demand couldn't be accommodated by the existing supply. When what should have been temporary scarcity became apparent the shooting world, everyone adjusted their Kan-Ban resupply levels. Instead of keeping buying a brick or two and only replenishing when they drop below 200 rounds, they are now looking to resupply when they fall under 1500 rounds. Everyone is in replenish mode and will be for a while.
 
At production of 1,000,000 plus rounds a day, things should have caught up by now. There's more to this than simple gouging.

Even if it was just demand, I would surely think that the manufacturers would have geared up production to meet that demand long ago to cash in on this "shortage".

In the small town that I live in, there is a manufacturer of military ammo cases from 20MM on up, and they went on to do major expansions as soon as the demand was up and appeared that it may stay up for an extended time. I know the president of the company and he said that the additional tooling are actually paid for relatively quick. 22LR should be no different.
 
Who really owns all the ammo manufacturing facilities? Are they in bed together... and are we at the receiving end of their intentions?
 
Hoarders and Scalpers

Guys, some of us may not realize it (and some do), that if you look up the definitions of hoarding and / or scalping, your picture is right there.:evil:

"We have met the enemy, and he is us !":eek: - Pogo

Let the chips fall in a pile, and if you (we) get some on us, you know what that makes us.:uhoh:
 
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Okay... I'm a hoarder. But I bought mine years ago when everyone else could have done the same at a fair price. It's not my fault most folks didn't. I'm not buying at today's insane prices and I don't buy today to scalp or gouge anyone. I will, however, dump the .22 LR I bought years ago at today's crazy prices. Why shouldn't I?
 
I guess I'd have to ask, why would you sell them unless you were out to scalp or gouge? I personally would be happy I had a good supply and would not stoop to that level.

I still say that even with the lowlife gougers, something just smells bad here. In just six months, at 1,000,000 per day, that's 360,000 - 500 packs of shells, and that's just one manufacturer.

I personally will not ever buy from a store that has resorted to what I feel is gouging and have little respect for the people I know who consistently screw people on everything from cars to firewood.
 
Hoarder ? Scalper ?

Mike1234567 said:
Okay... I'm a hoarder. But I bought mine years ago when everyone else could have done the same at a fair price. It's not my fault most folks didn't. I'm not buying at today's insane prices and I don't buy today to scalp or gouge anyone. I will, however, dump the .22 LR I bought years ago at today's crazy prices. Why shouldn't I?
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I disagree with you. From what you said, you are not a hoarder, simply because you bought several rounds, back years ago, before the drastic spike in prices. You could buy as many rounds as you wished, at a reasonable price. That's your privilege. You had the money, and you could buy whatever you wanted. You had no pre-knowledge of price increases.

Nor, do I believe you to be a scalper, if you sell at a reasonable price, even making a profit.

I do believe you might be a scalper, if you sold at a VERY high price. But, on the other hand, you are the owner. "Let your conscience be your guide.":)
 
Duckdog said:
At production of 1,000,000 plus rounds a day, things should have caught up by now. There's more to this than simple gouging.

Even if it was just demand, I would surely think that the manufacturers would have geared up production to meet that demand long ago to cash in on this "shortage".

In the small town that I live in, there is a manufacturer of military ammo cases from 20MM on up, and they went on to do major expansions as soon as the demand was up and appeared that it may stay up for an extended time. I know the president of the company and he said that the additional tooling are actually paid for relatively quick. 22LR should be no different.
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Manufacturers are running at 100%. It takes an investment of millions of dollars to expand. They will not make the investment unless future demand is guaranteed. Panic buying in past decades has lead to reduced demand in years after the panic. People will tap into their hoards instead of buying it. Resellers will eventually be left holding the bag. This may last a year or more from now and then just crash with a flooded market.
 
Mike1234567 said:
Okay... I'm a hoarder. But I bought mine years ago when everyone else could have done the same at a fair price. It's not my fault most folks didn't. I'm not buying at today's insane prices and I don't buy today to scalp or gouge anyone. I will, however, dump the .22 LR I bought years ago at today's crazy prices. Why shouldn't I?
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Why do you keep asking Mike??? Do it or don't.....makes no difference.
 
Where's the .22, and can I afford it ?

Duckdog said:
I guess I'd have to ask, why would you sell them unless you were out to scalp or gouge? I personally would be happy I had a good supply and would not stoop to that level.

I still say that even with the lowlife gougers, something just smells bad here. In just six months, at 1,000,000 per day, that's 360,000 - 500 packs of shells, and that's just one manufacturer.

I personally will not ever buy from a store that has resorted to what I feel is gouging and have little respect for the people I know who consistently screw people on everything from cars to firewood.
Click to expand...
My sentiments, exactly. Gouging and scalping are, at least offensive, and demand a response. Don't buy if you feel taken advantage of, or they disregard your concerns.
 
Duckdog said:
I guess I'd have to ask, why would you sell them unless you were out to scalp or gouge? I personally would be happy I had a good supply and would not stoop to that level.

I still say that even with the lowlife gougers, something just smells bad here. In just six months, at 1,000,000 per day, that's 360,000 - 500 packs of shells, and that's just one manufacturer.

I personally will not ever buy from a store that has resorted to what I feel is gouging and have little respect for the people I know who consistently screw people on everything from cars to firewood.
Click to expand...

Why? Because I won't sell my .22 LR I invested in 6-8 years ago to you for 5 cents/rd? It's not my fault that it's now selling for up to 17 cents. Why should I sell mine, that I invested in and stored for 6-8 years, for less than I can buy it for? Decent investments double in value every five years or so. My .22 LR didn't quite meet that gain. So you're expecting me to sell at a loss? Why? Again, the shortage isn't my fault and I'm not buying today to resell.

Why would I sell? Two reasons...

1. I've decided that I don't really need .22 LR in my area.

2. I lost my job nearly three years ago due to medical issues. I need the money.
 
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.22 Ammo

Mike1234567 said:
Why? Because I won't sell my .22 LR I invested in 6-8 years ago to you for 5 cents/rd? It's not my fault that it's now selling for up to 17 cents. Why should I sell mine, that I invested in and stored for 6-8 years, for less than I can buy it for? Decent investments double in value every five years or so. My .22 LR didn't quite meet that gain. So you're expecting me to sell at a loss? Why? Again, the shortage isn't my fault and I'm not buying today to resell.

Why would I sell? Two reasons...

1. I've decided that I don't really need .22 LR in my area.

2. I lost my job nearly three years ago due to medical issues. I need the money.
Click to expand...
You don't need a reason, but you have one. Go for it ! It's yours. Use it well.:)
 
[Manufacturers are running at 100%. It takes an investment of millions of dollars to expand. They will not make the investment unless future demand is guaranteed. Panic buying in past decades has lead to reduced demand in years after the panic. People will tap into their hoards instead of buying it. Resellers will eventually be left holding the bag. This may last a year or more from now and then just crash with a flooded market. /QUOTE]

I have to disagree. There have been more gun sales than ever, which will keep an increased demand on the ammo, with 22LR being one of the most sought after. What business wouldn't try to cash in on even short term gains if they could? Machine shops and heat treating facilities do this all the time just to get a piece of the action. Look at the ship building industry. they'll expand and ramp up for a 5 year 10 ship contract, knowing it is a done deal when the last ship takes to the water.

Base your numbers on that 1,000,000 per day figure. Say they can increase an additional 500,000 per day and make .02 per round. Based on that 180 day figure for 6 months, they would gross $1.8 million in that period. Even of the machining cost an additional $1 million, and I would not think it would, that would still leave $800,000.00. I think they'd depreciate that machining out at least 10 years, so deducting the full amount in the first 6 months would be overkill. Now say you paid 6 workers $20.00 including benefits, (2 per shift), your talking about $125,000.00. That still leaves a cool $675,000.00 for that period. I'm sure there would be material expenses, but even if it sucked up half the profit to this point, there'd still be $337,000.00 left.

There's money to be made here and for some reason no one is trying to suck it up except gougers. It just doesn't make sense to me and I'll continue to believe something is amiss.
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I think we need an Economics 101 lesson, with an emphasis on supply and demand. Maybe hit the term "market price" hard while we are at it.

I also think people need to stop low road personal insults and name calling just because they are pissed off about not having as much ammo as they would like.

And if you are just going to throw a hissy fit and point fingers and call names, direct it where it belongs, at the politicians who tried to go on an infringement-spree.
 
Take no offense, but if you think the way to control demand is to raise prices and make more money for the short while you can or until people stop buying, you are entitled to that opinion. You will control demand, as well as the supply in the end. The other way to look at it, is to keep the prices relatively static and increase production, wherein you keep customers buying your product for hopefully, the long term. This not only retains and builds customer base, but also increases profit. This is sound economics.

No one was having a "tissy fit",but rather speaking the truth when calling someone a gouger. Would it be better if they were referred to as extreme capitalists? No problem. And, it is correct that the politicians caused this, but they are only part of the problem in propagating it further.

If someone wants to sell their property for whatever price they wish, have at it. I, for one, will not buy from them if they are charging more than I feel is fair.
 
Duckdog said:
[Manufacturers are running at 100%. It takes an investment of millions of dollars to expand. They will not make the investment unless future demand is guaranteed. Panic buying in past decades has lead to reduced demand in years after the panic. People will tap into their hoards instead of buying it. Resellers will eventually be left holding the bag. This may last a year or more from now and then just crash with a flooded market. /QUOTE]

I have to disagree. There have been more gun sales than ever, which will keep an increased demand on the ammo, with 22LR being one of the most sought after. What business wouldn't try to cash in on even short term gains if they could? Machine shops and heat treating facilities do this all the time just to get a piece of the action. Look at the ship building industry. they'll expand and ramp up for a 5 year 10 ship contract, knowing it is a done deal when the last ship takes to the water.

Base your numbers on that 1,000,000 per day figure. Say they can increase an additional 500,000 per day and make .02 per round. Based on that 180 day figure for 6 months, they would gross $1.8 million in that period. Even of the machining cost an additional $1 million, and I would not think it would, that would still leave $800,000.00. I think they'd depreciate that machining out at least 10 years, so deducting the full amount in the first 6 months would be overkill. Now say you paid 6 workers $20.00 including benefits, (2 per shift), your talking about $125,000.00. That still leaves a cool $675,000.00 for that period. I'm sure there would be material expenses, but even if it sucked up half the profit to this point, there'd still be $337,000.00 left.

There's money to be made here and for some reason no one is trying to suck it up except gougers. It just doesn't make sense to me and I'll continue to believe something is amiss.
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You missed the critical issue. They cannot expand capacity without new facilities. If it takes 35+ million dollars and 18 months to bring a new facility online, future demand to keep that facility at capacity must be guaranteed. The machines, production lines and space to increase capacity are not immediately available.

Rimfire manufacturing is very different and more complex than centerfire manufacturing.
Click to expand...
 
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