.22lr MEGATHREAD

[PowerShot]

Oh, I see there is a thread elsewhere with more information on this, especially the letter from Midway at the bottom:

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=773381

One excerpt:

If everyone would just take a breath and only buy what they need to shoot that month, the industry would catch up. But as soon as you tell someone they can’t have something, they have to have it. Guys that maybe fired 500 rounds a summer are sitting on 10,000 rounds and still buying whenever they see it. Until the demand settles, this crazy supply situation will continue.

… though this amounts to blaming the buyer's motives again. Motive doesn't matter.

If people want to fill their swimming pools with Mini Mags it's nobody else's business just an opportunity for CCI et al to both make money and make people happy.

Fixed production and fixed price means scarcity; CCI makes less money and customers don't get what they are willing to pay for, for whatever reason (nobody's business).

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

All right, who cares about S&H raising the price above some personal, arbitrary "max price per round"?

I mean, honestly here!

If you can't find it locally, bite the bullet and buy a brick or two online so you will have some and be done with it! How much is your gas and personal time worth to you that you'd much rather get all worked up running about and not finding what you need/want?

It's not as if people HAVE to continue buying at higher than desired prices. Just buy that brick or two to hold you over while you continue shopping locally. A one time expenditure is well worth the savings in time, gas, and aggravation.

 

[alexander45]

My friend just picked up 3 300 round boxes of standard cci for $15 a box so at o 5 cents a round, last time I found some I payed 8 cents a round which is about my limit on what I'm willing to cough up and only that much for cci preferably mini mag at that price point

 

[hot chili powder]

Cheap 22LR

Picked up box of 100 Win 22lr for $6.39, one box limit @ local Fleet/Farm store. They had boxes of 222 Win 22lr @ $11 and change but were gone when I got there:banghead:

 

[Encoreman]

You know I have read lots of threads on the lack of ammo and maybe I am dumb, but why on earth wouldn't at least 1 of the ammo companies decide to expand and start making some more ammo, not necessarily 22lr. because I understand the profit margin is small on this. Since this last ammo shortage has happened I have found 1 wally world with any 22 ammo and that is looking in 4 states. 1 lgs has limited amount of 50 count boxes for $4 limit 1 just for keeping some customers happy. One would think that 1 of the CEO's or pres of an ammo company would think to expand. Just my $0.02

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

You know I have read lots of threads on the lack of ammo and maybe I am dumb, but why on earth wouldn't at least 1 of the ammo companies decide to expand and start making some more ammo, not necessarily 22lr. because I understand the profit margin is small on this. Since this last ammo shortage has happened I have found 1 wally world with any 22 ammo and that is looking in 4 states. 1 lgs has limited amount of 50 count boxes for $4 limit 1 just for keeping some customers happy. One would think that 1 of the CEO's or pres of an ammo company would think to expand. Just my $0.02

You need to go back and read some more on this.

It's a good question that's been vetted before. Ammunition factories can ramp up production immediately to the full capacity of their production equipment by working more shifts and supplying more raw materials. This was done as soon as demand exceeded their normal production capacities.

However, building more production capacity involves a huge expenditure of resources for which the long term investment must be carefully researched and approached. Building more production capacity for what amounts to a temporary (even if only by a few years) market demand may mean that by the time it's actually brought online the market demand will return to pre-panic levels.

This means that the tens of millions of dollars expended in building new production capacity will not be recouped because the market demand will have dropped.

Should that happen, then those facilities will lay unused...and even unused, they require maintenance and preservation, which costs money, and payment for buildings and land...yet more money.

So the new facilities may become not only a financial loss, but a financial drain as well.

The question of increased productivity capacity must ALWAYS be in proportion with the long term market demands...which are not always easy to predict. If there is a new, sustained long term market demand at a higher level than previously (as opposed to a short term surge demand), then increased production capacity may be warranted. If not, then it's not a sustainable proposition.

 

[PowerShot]

However, building more production capacity involves a huge expenditure of resources for which the long term investment must be carefully researched and approached. Building more production capacity for what amounts to a temporary (even if only by a few years) market demand may mean that by the time it's actually brought online the market demand will return to pre-panic levels.

This means that the tens of millions of dollars expended in building new production capacity will not be recouped because the market demand will have dropped.

Should that happen, then those facilities will lay unused...and even unused, they require maintenance and preservation, which costs money, and payment for buildings and land...yet more money.

So the new facilities may become not only a financial loss, but a financial drain as well.

The question of increased productivity capacity must ALWAYS be in proportion with the long term market demands...

This is impossible and an appeal for central-planning committees. Long-term market demands are unknowable,
research can only provide a guess and you can't commit both feet to it either way.

It also makes it sound as if the decisions ammunition-makers face are different from every other industry.
They aren't. These routine decisions about production are called "running a business".

The "10s of millions" to expand production can be funded by PRODUCERS raising prices during a surge in demand.

(This is different from non-productive RESELLERS raising the prices during a demand surge, which can be called
"gouging". But if PRODUCERS raise the prices, I have no complaint. They are putting the value on their productive
work and I have no basis to argue, though I can choose to buy or not buy).

The PRODUCER price increase would do two things:

1) Automatically ration the product, so it goes to those who put a higher priority on it (willing to pay more).
Prices would float higher, to a level where those willing to pay it vs. those turned off would more closely match
production. But the ammunition would be on the shelves and people could decide if it was worth it to them
or not. Their call. Impersonal, fair, automatic rationing.

2) Provide money to fund increased production (make more people happy and make more money).

Instead of PRODUCERS raising prices to what people are willing to pay of their own
free choice -- for whatever reason, who cares -- and getting the new money to fund expansion
or adaptability, they let non-productive RESELLERS raise the prices and get big profits.

So PRODUCERS don't get the profits to needed to increase production and don't get the price discovery
information needed to properly price their product.

The result is inevitable: chronic shortage. Year after year after year.

With profits going to non-producers, new money for new expansion becomes a bigger issue than if they let the
market function: "Where would we possibly get the 10s of millions needed to increase production …?" Duh.

The idea that ammunition-makers must accurately know demand many years in advance is hopeless. They can't.
It's an excuse for Soviet style mismanagement contrary to market freedom, with its self-correcting feedback loops
that, in other industries, produces a world of plenty at low prices.

These guys are thinking and operating like the "boutique" shops down on main street, where one or two ladies
decide they want to make pretty glass ornaments. They have a lovely shop. So pretty.
Its fun to go in every day and putter around the shop and chat.

But when they get popular and they can't make them fast enough, well, they just keep doing the same thing.
Because they don't want to do it any other way. They COULD raise prices; this would cool off demand, but
their profits would expand and they could use the extra money to expand productions. Another shop across
town?

A boutique operation says, "Well, that's getting to be a lot to handle. Maybe not as much
fun. Let's just keep doing the same thing. I predict that in five years everyone will have all the
ornaments they could ever want anyway".

Many ammunition manufacturers are acting like "boutique operations", imagining they can
know what demand will be years in the future to justify not responding to actual demand
information.

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

This is impossible and an appeal for central-planning committees. Long-term market demands are unknowable,
research can only provide a guess and you can't commit both feet to it either way.

No, it's not impossible. Companies do this all the time by continually analyzing market response over time. Thus it's not a "guess", but informed decision based on trend analysis.

It also makes it sound as if the decisions ammunition-makers face are different from every other industry.
They aren't. These routine decisions about production are called "running a business".

I never said, nor implied, that the decisions the ammunition manufacturers are, somehow, different than any other industry.

The "10s of millions" to expand production can be funded by PRODUCERS raising prices during a surge in demand.

(This is different from non-productive RESELLERS raising the prices during a demand surge, which can be called
"gouging". But if PRODUCERS raise the prices, I have no complaint. They are putting the value on their productive
work and I have no basis to argue, though I can choose to buy or not buy).

Your arguments on this notwithstanding, this is not how the market for established consumer goods reacts in this country and complaints about how it DOESN'T work this way are a waste of time. The fact is that prices of consumer goods are rarely increased by the manufacturer based on short-term shortages due to demand exceeding supply in this country. Retail establishments may or may not raise prices, but likewise rarely ever do in our economy.

This is a fact of life here.

So producers will NOT be raising prices in order to subsidize the expansion of production capacity. And even if they did, they would still have to deal with the fiscal realities of what to do with these facilities if the market settles back down to pre-panic consumer levels. It still costs a great deal of money to properly take care of unused facilities, which would be a continual drain on their profit margins.

The idea that ammunition-makers must accurately know demand many years in advance is hopeless. They can't.
It's an excuse for Soviet style mismanagement contrary to market freedom, with its self-correcting feedback loops
that, in other industries, produces a world of plenty at low prices.

Wrong. The market actually functions on such speculation all the time...in fact, it's vital to the existence of both the businesses and the economy. Overestimate demand in the long term and you end up overspending on production capacity and goods, all of which cost money to either maintain or recover from. This results in a net loss in profits. Underestimate demand and other complications arise, such as loss of customer base due to dissatisfaction or to other manufacturers who would otherwise not be getting the business. This also results in a net loss in profits.

And the investment field is HUGELY based on speculations, short and long term. When a company meets demand and speculated production/profits, their market value increases. In otherwords, consumer and investor confidence is high and therefore share prices increase. When a company fails to meet projected goals, consumer and investor confidence falls and share prices decrease. This directly affects the real worth of the company.

These guys are thinking and operating like the "boutique" shops down on main street, where one or two ladies
decide they want to make pretty glass ornaments. They have a lovely shop. So pretty.
Its fun to go in every day and putter around the shop and chat.

But when they get popular and they can't make them fast enough, well, they just keep doing the same thing.
Because they don't want to do it any other way. They COULD raise prices; this would cool off demand, but
their profits would expand and they could use the extra money to expand productions. Another shop across
town?

A boutique operation says, "Well, that's getting to be a lot to handle. Maybe not as much
fun. Let's just keep doing the same thing. I predict that in five years everyone will have all the
ornaments they could ever want anyway".

Many ammunition manufacturers are acting like "boutique operations", imagining they can
know what demand will be years in the future to justify not responding to actual demand
information.

No, they're not going to raise prices in response to market demands like you think they should. Like it or not, that's not the way it works in this country and wishing it otherwise won't change that. So this is a non-productive argument.

And they're not continuing to "just keep doing the same thing". They've long since ramped up production to the maximum that their production lines are capable of producing and the market analysis has evidently shown signs of some nominal long term increase in consumer demand because some companies HAVE committed to expansion. So your argument here is null.

Comments in blue.

 

[jrdolall]

We have discussed the issue of building new facilities many times. Why do people think they have the answer to the ammo crisis? If anybody knows the answer it is the people at CCI, Federal, Remington etc and they sure aren't going to be telling their consumers.
When the price of beef is high why don't ranchers just raise more beef?
When the price of corn is high why don't farmers just grow more corn?
When the price of trucks is high why don't auto manufacturers build more trucks? Because they are selling everything they can sell at top dollar it doesn't always make sense to increase capacity and drive the price down. It isn't cheap to get new land for crops or cattle, buy extra equipment, borrow more from Farm Credit, and then supply extra product and help drive down the price of your commodity. I know because I am in a business that does this every year.

Businesses MUST look at things for the long run and cannot, in the case of durable goods, go out and spend millions on what they believe to be a short term situation. Two years, or 5 years, is not "long term" where a manufacturer is concerned. As far as raising prices to stop the shortage, I think they have raised prices. Maybe not the 50% some people are advocating but they have raised them at the manufacturing level.

I still don't see a shortage of 22 ammo. I see a shortage of readily available, inexpensive 22 ammo. If you want 22 ammo you can have all you want to buy delivered to your house by tomorrow. www.ammosupplywarehouse.com has no limit on Armscor 22 right now. I just added 10 bricks to my Cart, added UPS Ground shipping, and they are ready to sell it to me. It will come in at $.10 a round delivered to my door. They offer next day shipping as well, but at a much higher price. 5,000 rounds of 22 ammo available in about 30 seconds of shopping.
Please stop whining about shortages and gougers and manufacturers and start acknowledging that the game has changed. I, like most here, hope that it is a temporary change but the market will ultimately determine how this plays out. WE are the market

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

I still don't see a shortage of 22 ammo. I see a shortage of readily available, inexpensive 22 ammo. If you want 22 ammo you can have all you want to buy delivered to your house by tomorrow. www.ammosupplywarehouse.com has no limit on Armscor 22 right now. I just added 10 bricks to my Cart, added UPS Ground shipping, and they are ready to sell it to me. It will come in at $.10 a round delivered to my door. They offer next day shipping as well, but at a much higher price. 5,000 rounds of 22 ammo available in about 30 seconds of shopping.
Please stop whining about shortages and gougers and manufacturers and start acknowledging that the game has changed. I, like most here, hope that it is a temporary change but the market will ultimately determine how this plays out. WE are the market

Bingo!

Additionally, match grade .22LR has been readily available this whole time, virtually unchanged in pricing.

If people NEED .22, pony up and buy what's needed. It's still cheaper per round than anything else on the market. If people just WANT .22, then simply buy it whenever they happen to find it at a price they like.

 

[roadchoad]

So, when water, gas, food, and medicine triple in price, or the only options are 93 octane, Perrier, pate, and name brand pharmaceuticals, you guys will pay without complaint?

 

[Grayrock]

Thanks to this thread Palmetto State just sent me a brick- actually, a pyramid!

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

So, when water, gas, food, and medicine triple in price, or the only options are 93 octane, Perrier, pate, and name brand pharmaceuticals, you guys will pay without complaint?

Who said anything about not complaining? Complaining is human nature!

And for the record...prices have more than tripled on a great many things over the years and I've always managed.

 

[roadchoad]

They haven't tripled in the same period as .22 has. I wasn't around in the 70s when the oil crisis happened, but I imagine it was a similar scenario, and wreaked havoc on transportation. The entire auto industry shifted its production after that. Point is, if this happened with another commodity, one in more common use and need, the consequences could be dire. Could you imagine seeing food scalpers? How well would that pan out?

I wonder if the shooting sports aren't going to go the way of personal aviation. Regulated to the point that it becomes too expensive for all but a few.

 

[jrdolall]

I don't want to give the impression that I am happy about the situation or that it hasn't caused me any problems. I like to walk in Walmart or the LGS and pick up a couple of bricks at a good price just like everyone else.
I was alive in the 70s. I remember gas at $.57 a gallon and diesel was even lower. I never had to deal with the long lines but I do remember panic when gas went to $.70 a gallon. We thought we would never be able to drive. Coke (Mt Dew for me) was a dime. You had to make sure you had plenty of gas and bread and other staples because there were NO convenience stores and everything was closed all day Sunday. Many were closed on Saturday.
The game has changed.

 

[alexander45]

You know I have read lots of threads on the lack of ammo and maybe I am dumb, but why on earth wouldn't at least 1 of the ammo companies decide to expand and start making some more ammo,*

Easy if one company put up a new line it would probably be c enough to break the cycle of hording and be enough to fill the new demand (I'm quite positive there are enough new shooters to justify a continuous much higher output) working at a regular pace.
But if two companies get the same idea neither will have enough market share to be able to pay off the new equipment.
We really only need one new line.
But what company I s going to take the risk of losing their back side.

also a new line takes time to set up so they may already be gearing up but I would expect it to take over a year to build the equipment and set up the new line

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

They haven't tripled in the same period as .22 has. I wasn't around in the 70s when the oil crisis happened, but I imagine it was a similar scenario, and wreaked havoc on transportation. The entire auto industry shifted its production after that. Point is, if this happened with another commodity, one in more common use and need, the consequences could be dire. Could you imagine seeing food scalpers? How well would that pan out?

I wonder if the shooting sports aren't going to go the way of personal aviation. Regulated to the point that it becomes too expensive for all but a few.

It's not really fair to compare it to other commodities, though. Gas about tripled early 2000's, not long before I got out. But that doesn't compare with .22 prices because, unlike gas, I don't need huge quantities of .22 ammunition to get by in my day-to-day life. And what I MIGHT "need" in .22 ammunition can be easily satisfied by just a few purchases which would last me months, if not longer.

I NEED gas to get back and forth to work, home, school, and any number of other activities. .22? I can simply leave my firearms in the closet and not worry about it.

 

[jrdolall]

Just a minute ago I looked at wikiarms.com and saw where one company has 127 cases of 22 LR ammo for sale at $.10 per round. That is 635,000 rounds of ammo for sale by an internet company that probably didn't even exist before 2010 or so. All of those rounds would have been on the shelves at Walmart or Cabela's.
The internet has changed the way we shop,, Amazon, E-Bay, etc so why are we surprised that it is changing the way we purchase ammo? It changed the way we purchase guns didn't it? I bought my first (and so far only) gun off the internet in 2011. Before that I bought them all locally. I bought my first ammo online in about 2011 as well. Maybe a little earlier but I don't recall.
A year ago it was almost impossible to find 9mm on the shelves. Two years ago you had to pay $1 for a round of cheap 223. 22 is the ammo that is still not loaded up on the shelves but IT IS available if you just do a little bit of work. You have to have a credit card. You have to sign up for email alerts. You have to be ready to buy it RIGHT NOW (and sometimes even that is not fast enough). I refuse to apologize for being willing to do a little work to get what I want.

 

[nipprdog]

http://www.midwayusa.com/product/125740/winchester-ammunition-shooters-pack-22-long-rifle-and-9mm-luger-box-of-1150-1000-rounds-22-long-rifle-and-150-rounds-9mm-luger?cm_vc=ProductFinding

 

[gbw]

I've never shot much .22 so the shortage hasn't affected me, but this thread's been interesting.

It seems many of the responses want us to believe that actual consumption of .22 ammo, i.e. people who shoot it or buy it with the intent to shoot it, magically jumped 2 years ago to a rate so high that it's caused much of the shortage.

Maybe, but I don't believe it. The tragedy didn't create a huge new class of .22 shooters, and it didn't re-ignite .22 shooting fever in gobs of existing shooters. Actually none that I've seen. Nope, too big a coincidence and makes no sense otherwise, except those trying to sell the idea.

Instead, I see pawn shops and other opportunists at gun shows, awash in .22 ammo they gobbled up at retail (per Wal-Mart clerks), trying to re-sell it at 3 times the price or more. I read of those stashing away huge piles they'll never use, for reasons not clear. At least one claimed just because he can. I see companies of wobbly ethics suddenly triple their prices.

Nothing illegal about any of this of course. Capitalism leaves room at the margin for parasites. Those who profit but don't add value, who take advantage regardless of the inconvenience they cause. And in fairness they aren't the entire cause of the shortage, but I'd bet they're the largest cause.

But often they don't profit in the end, another virtue of capitalism. People have memories.

Legal, sure. Right, not so much.

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

I've never shot much .22 so the shortage hasn't affected me, but this thread's been interesting.

It seems many of the responses want us to believe that actual consumption of .22 ammo, i.e. people who shoot it or buy it with the intent to shoot it, magically jumped 2 years ago to a rate so high that it's caused much of the shortage.

Maybe, but I don't believe it. The tragedy didn't create a huge new class of .22 shooters, and it didn't re-ignite .22 shooting fever in gobs of existing shooters. Actually none that I've seen. Nope, too big a coincidence and makes no sense otherwise, except those trying to sell the idea.

Instead, I see pawn shops and other opportunists at gun shows, awash in .22 ammo they gobbled up at retail (per Wal-Mart clerks), trying to re-sell it at 3 times the price or more. I read of those stashing away huge piles they'll never use, for reasons not clear. At least one claimed just because he can. I see companies of wobbly ethics suddenly triple their prices.

Nothing illegal about any of this of course. Capitalism leaves room at the margin for parasites. Those who profit but don't add value, who take advantage regardless of the inconvenience they cause. And in fairness they aren't the entire cause of the shortage, but I'd bet they're the largest cause.

But often they don't profit in the end, another virtue of capitalism. People have memories.

Legal, sure. Right, not so much.

It's not that the tregedy created a huge new class of .22 shooters, though more new people evidently have picked up shooting. It's that so many of the existing shooters saw the imminent threat of radical gun control laws looming on the horizon after the guncontrol croud crawled out of the woodwork and the Obama administration started pushing heavily for it.

Gun owners all over the country responded in a huge panic buying of all the ammo they could get their hands on.

 

[Warp]

It seems many of the responses want us to believe that actual consumption of .22 ammo, i.e. people who shoot it or buy it with the intent to shoot it, magically jumped 2 years ago to a rate so high that it's caused much of the shortage.

That is not what anybody wants you to believe. Your post would be what we call a "straw man".

 

[basicblur]

It seems many of the responses want us to believe that actual consumption of .22 ammo, i.e. people who shoot it or buy it with the intent to shoot it, magically jumped 2 years ago to a rate so high that it's caused much of the shortage.

Maybe, but I don't believe it.

Well I am one of those people - I'm a long time shooter, but until the recent availability (and wide choices) of AR style 22's, I wasn't interested in 22. I now own & shoot more 22 than any other caliber / guns I own. I've also picked up a few 22 pistols (1911 style, etc), and have started moving "down the line" as I now own a few bolt action 22 Savages.

I think some folks' thinking in here is shaped by the fact that they may be single shot, squirrel shooters etc? There's a whole new class of 22 shooters that has exploded over the last few years - many folks are probably following my pattern, as well as many new shooters starting out with 22's.
I can name 5 or 6 of my friends that now shoot a LOT more than they used to - all have bought AR style 22's, just as I have.

I've always kept enough ammo on had to avoid all the panics / shortages, but since I just got into 22, I was blindsided by the 22 ammo shortage.

Not believing the tales employees of a certain big box store were telling me (we haven't seen any 22 in X amount of time), I had to go to work to find out how the store worked - after cracking the code (and beating the flippers at their own game) I have purchased all the 22 I and a number of my friends will need for some time, but it did not come without a fight.

The Force is strong with some of the apparent insider connections between flippers and store employees. I caught one employee on 3 different occasions telling folks they had no ammo, only to see her sell the very same ammo to some of her buddies not 5 minutes later. We've caught folks stashing ammo under counters - one manager told me they often found "misplaced" cases of ammo in the baby department, etc. - all apparently misplaced until someone was ready to purchase.

You can search some of my older posts (some closed since some big box employee whined) to find out more details of my exploits if you so desire.

I think this is more a case of The Perfect Storm:
1. There are numerous long time shooters that have just gotten into 22 big-time (22 AR / 1911 practice is cheap)!
2. Flippers - no doubt folks like myself have helped give rise to some of the flippers, since we tend to burn a lot of 22.
3. New shooters (especially AR folks) starting out with a 22.
4. Ammo companies not willing to take a chance on new 22 production investment until they figure out the new normal.
5. There are a lot of new ammo businesses / retailers popping up over the last few years - no doubt they're draining some of the supply that normally may have gone to your favorite retailer.

I'd be willing to bet the majority of the shortage is caused by new to 22 shooters like myself. Flippers would be a good candidate for the #2 cause, but us folks at the top of the list have probably fueled the boom in flippers.

 

[22-rimfire]

I think in part the 22LR shortage was caused by the manufacturers packaging in the loose bulk packs. In the past, people would buy a couple 50 ct boxes and have it lying around for their occasional shooting. A brick was a significant amount of 22 ammo. Now they have a couple 500 round bulk packs lying around for their occasional shooting. Multiply that by millions of shooters with manufacturing capacity essentially at the pre-panic levels, you have a shortage and the manufacturers do not seem to be in any hurry to increase production (not that I blame them).

 

[jrdolall]

I have never been inside an ammo manufacturing plant but I wonder if adding capacity, other than an entirely new plant, wouldn't force them to shut down some of the existing lines? If they are running at max capacity and selling every round as soon as it gets into a box then it would be even less likely that they would be willing to give up production for even a short time. I know that many of the plants I have been involved with have added lines or equipment and it meant being down for several days as they did the construction and installation.
Maybe the internet has changed things so much that we will NEVER see easy availability again. Maybe all those guys on the web with a warehouse and a website are pulling a decent percentage of the ammo produced. I mean, even Midway wasn't in the ammo business until a few years ago. Cabela's can probably sell everything they get in stock without having to ship product to the stores. Just plug in a number on the website and watch it all disappear in five minutes rather than ship it out to stores.