2nd Amendment: Worse after Heller b/c of SCOTUS?

[usmarine0352_2005]

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Ironically, Heller will be the tipping point for our 2nd Amendment rights, not the finish line.

Will individuals rights win out, will government rights win out, or will it be a mixture of both.

It really left open almost all avenues about 2nd Amendment rights to further court cases. That includes, incorporation, machine guns, concealed carry and others.



With Heller being decided on the narrowest of 5-4 votes, it's pretty scary how the current make up of SCOTUS sees our Constitutional rights.


With the next President likely to choose at least 2 of the next justices, these justices will decide the interpetation of our 2nd Amendment rights in the next pivotal cases before the Supreme Court.


Note: U.S. Supreme Court justices haven't always ruled on the lines that the president who appointed them thought they would.



1.) Are there any front-runners for the SCOTUS positions that anyone sees right now?




2.) Who do you think will retire first?




3.) How will this or that person retiring affect the make up of the Court?



4.) Which rights do you think have the best chance of being affirmed; ie....incorporation, machine guns, concealed carry, etc...no matter what judge is chosen?




5.) Which rights do you see not being affirmed, no matter what judge is chosen?




6.) Do you care more about a judge based on what their stance is about abortion rights, or other rights more then a strong 2nd Amendment stance?





(We thought that the 2nd Amendment was such an easy amendment to read and that 7-2 for individual rights would be a no-brainer. Obviously, we were wrong.)

After Heller, our 2nd Amendment rights are more in jeopardy then they ever have been. We definitely need to make sure we stay vigilant and active, and make sure that the correct President is chosen, and that he chooses the best judge for the job.


If we are not careful, Heller may only be a battle won in a war that is lost.


And yes, Heller being ruled as an Individal right is landmark and very important. However, we cannot rest on our laurels and become complacent.

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[Art Eatman]

"After Heller, our 2nd Amendment rights are more in jeopardy then they ever have been."

Sorry, but I can't get there from here. First off, it is now affirmed that the Second is an individual right. That's a helluva plus for our side.

Second, Heller for the first time ever brought the issue of personal self-defense into the Second Amendment, notably enlarging its application to the usage of firearms.

Always remember that the people who wrote the Second Amendment recognized that there are limitations. They said so, in writing. Our issue, today, is to get our laws back toward some semblance of original intent. The original intent was to control misuse, not to control the public at large.

 

[Standing Wolf]

If we are not careful, Heller may only be a battle won in a war that is lost.

Well, yeah, but haven't some representatives of the Democratic (sic) party mouthed platitudes in support of the Second Amendment?

In full seriousness: any time freedom is subject to majority vote by anybody, it's in grave danger: it's rarely hard to find at least a temporary majority who'll gladly throw away other people's freedom for the illusion of security for themselves.

 

[publius]

It's hard to say who might be nominated. Would anyone have guessed Harriet Meiers, or whatever her name was?

The left wing is generally older and in worse health than the right wing. OTOH, Alito could get hit by a bus tomorrow.

Kennedy was fairly obviously the swing vote in Heller, and his retirement is more likely than the other 4 in the majority based on his age. If he goes, things could go pretty badly for our side at the SC level, depending on his replacement.

I think some degree of incorporation is almost inevitable. Machine guns will probably not get 2a protection, though some of us will argue they should. Concealed carry has been repeatedly mentioned as NOT enjoying 2a protection throughout our history, and that was mentioned again in Heller.

Your fifth question is broad. Lots of things, including concealed carry.

I want judges who can successfully identify something which is not interstate commerce, which is not as easy as it may sound.

 

[Cosmoline]

I'm not terribly concerned about Heller being overturned outright. They VERY rarely do that sort of thing, particularly on such a critical issue. If the court swings left under an Obama administration, they'd be more likely to limit the level of review.

Keep in mind though that none of this keeps us from going through the same political routes we've always used. It's a second front, that's all.

 

[Thin Black Line]

Barring any more anti-gun presidential Executive Orders we're all going to be just fine.

 

[glockman19]

1.) Are there any front-runners for the SCOTUS positions that anyone sees right now?
Hard to say when none of us will be making the decision. Take it one step further, When was the last time you voted for a judge? Did you know anything about him/her? There were half a dozen on my last ballot. I didn't know anything about any of them.

2.) Who do you think will retire first?
My guess Ginsburg, Kenedy.

3.) How will this or that person retiring affect the make up of the Court?
We won't know until that person is appointed and approved.

4.) Which rights do you think have the best chance of being affirmed; ie....incorporation, machine guns, concealed carry, etc...no matter what judge is chosen?
IMHO Reasonable Restrictions include:
1) Incorporation, As soon as it can move through the system. 12-18 months.
2) Backround check only on the purchase of your first Handgun.
3) NO Machine Guns, Fully Auto Firearms.
4) Open Carry Loaded OK everywhere except Court houses and Gov. Buildings.
5) CCW Reasonable Restrictions, Backround Check, No such thing as "May Issue". Shall issue without a "Good Cause".
California Specific: DOJ "Approved Handgun List" unconstitutional
Shall Issue CCW or May Issue with Good Cause of "Self Defense" acceptable.
AWB ban lifted,
Hi capmag ban lifted,
Open Carry Loaded OK,


5.) Which rights do you see not being affirmed, no matter what judge is chosen?
Fully Automatic and machine guns.

6.) Do you care more about a judge based on what their stance is about abortion rights, or other rights more then a strong 2nd Amendment stance?
I will weigh all their views. Both are important.

I would describe myself as socally liberal and fiscally conservative.

 

[gopguy]

There is no doubt we are in better shape but the court does overturn things from time to time. The GITMO ruling last month, for instance, directly contradicts the 1950 Supreme Court case, Johnson v. Eisentrager. So don't get too comfy. If the balance of the court changes all bets are off.

Also considering DC thinks the ruling might allow them to keep the ban on Semi-autos and only allow the citizens have revolvers tells us this is not quite over yet. This ruling protects our right...but I can see this very liberal congress still passing gun bans on certain types of guns and limiting us to ten rounds again, claiming they are not infringing on our rights, since we can still own some types of guns.

Vigilance my friends, don't drop your guard.

BTW the first to go will be a race between Ginsburg and Stevens.

 

[Sam Adams]

1.) Are there any front-runners for the SCOTUS positions that anyone sees right now?

No way to know - and the first thing to figure out is whether you're choosing from Column A or Column B

2.) Who do you think will retire first?

Stevens (88) and Ginsburg (75 and sick).

3.) How will this or that person retiring affect the make up of the Court?
We won't know until that person is appointed and approved.

If McCain does the appointing, we'll see somewhat of a shift to the Originalist position (unless he surprises us and nominates a Scalia). If Obama nominates, not much change (though a LARGE change at the District and Ciruit Court levels, which will be more important since 99% of cases never reach the USSC).

4.) Which rights do you think have the best chance of being affirmed; ie....incorporation, machine guns, concealed carry, etc...no matter what judge is chosen?

1) Incorporation, As soon as it can move through the system. 18-24 months.
2) Backround checks only on the purchase of your first firearm.
3) Full autos - lifting of the Hughes Amendment banning new registrations of full autos post-'86 (But the NFA will stay).
4) Open Carry Loaded OK everywhere except Court houses, schools and Gov. Buildings.
5) CCW Reasonable Restrictions, Backround Check, No such thing as "May Issue". Shall issue without a "Good Cause".
6) No state AWBs, magazine limits; no banned weapons based on spurious things like pistol grips, bayonet lugs, magazines, etc.

5.) Which rights do you see not being affirmed, no matter what judge is chosen?

Unrestricted access to full autos without going through NFA procedures. Not that we shouldn't get this, but reality says it won't happen until and unless the Founders are resurrected AND appointed to the USSC.

6.) Do you care more about a judge based on what their stance is about abortion rights, or other rights more then a strong 2nd Amendment stance.

Both are important, but someone who's strong on the 2nd Amendment is going to be an Originalist.

 

[Yellowfin]

If we can get rid of Stevens, Souter, and Ginsberg quickly then things will improve. Heller would have turned out a lot better if they weren't there. Personally I think we could have done a lot better, but Gura didn't help at all by regurgitating a lot of the antis' nonsense.

 

[natman]

Let me say that I agree that while we may have won a significant battle, the fight is far from over. The worst mistake we could possibly make would be to think it's OK to stop our vigilance now.

That said, worrying about Heller is like finding yourself in bed with Liv Tyler and complaining because she's not a blonde!

Heller formally established that the Second Amendment is about an individual right. That's huge. It established that self defense is constitutionally protected. That's huge. It ended one of the worst bans in the country and gave the ban's advocates a chance to look like idiots, which they have siezed with both hands. Sure, it's wasn't a perfect decision, but it was really, really good.

There are plenty of legal battles ahead, but the crucial difference is that instead of being on the defensive, we are now on the offensive, filing lawsuits to make things better. That's a gigantic momentum shift.

If you don't think Heller was a great win, consider what things would be like if we'd lost.

 

[VPLthrneck]

If McCain does the appointing, we'll see somewhat of a shift to the Originalist position (unless he surprises us and nominates a Scalia)

I think you have your Justice's mixed up--Scalia is one of the Originalist. Are you sure you didn't mean Souter? Now that was a surprise that the first Pres. Bush nominated him, although I seem to recall some politicing to get the first nomination pushed through so the lefties in Congress could fight the nest nominee--Justice Thomas

The retiree all depend on who wins the upcoming election, although a couple of them hopefully won't have much option (Ginsberg and Stevens. Don't look for Kennedy to retire anytime soon--you can tell he's loving the attention of being the "swing vote" and Breyer would only leave if Obama got elected--his replacement then would be another leftie.
My only requirement of a Supreme Court Justice is that they understand the Constitution (Orginalist) and the history of this great nation we live in. So when another Court nomination comes up--and not just the Supreme Court, but Federal District Courts as well--call and/or write your representatives to expresss ou feeling on the matter.
This is also why elections matter (all elections), after all we the people don't get to directly vote for the Supreme Court members.