Alan Gura Says Democrat Nominated Replacement for Scalia Will End Heller

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Gura is certainly correct. Even the lame GOP is smart enough to realize that salient fact. So all the stops are gonna be pulled out to prevent that catastrophe from happening.
 
This is not a spectator sport. The senators will be under enormous pressure to cave and compromise. Write them every week, month, or whenever things start moving. Remind them of what is important to you and thank them for protecting our republic. Then thank them again.
 
The sitting Justices were a known quantity. Any replacement for Justice Scalia, even a "conservative" nominated by a Republican president, will initially be an unknown quantity. Judges often go their independent way once they're safely on the Court. Therefore, do not count on saving the Heller and McDonald precedents simply by having the Republican-controlled Senate stonewall an Obama appointment until his term is over. A much more sophisticated strategy is needed. This is a complex chess game.
 
It's not like I don't love Gura, but at the same time, I think he is overstating it a bit. It's about the same thing as saying that if a conservative justice is nominated, that's the end of Roe v Wade. There have been many conservative justices since then, and it's very much still there.
 
AlexanderA said:
A much more sophisticated strategy is needed. This is a complex chess game.

It's not really so complex. When a Rehnquist,Scalia,Thomas or Alito was nominated, you absolutely knew what you were going to get.

If a Mike Lee or Ted Cruz was nominated you know for a fact what you are going to get.
A true blue Constitutional Conservative.

Don't overthink the problem. The KISS Formula usually comes out way ahead.
 
mjdeckard said:
It's about the same thing as saying that if a conservative justice is nominated, that's the end of Roe v Wade. There have been many conservative justices since then, and it's very much still there.

Scalia wanted Roe overturned. One man or woman can't do it alone!
 
This is a real poker game now. If Obama picks a moderate and the republicans vote no, come November, if a Dem is elected as prez and the republicans lose a couple seats in the senate, We would end up with an ultra lib as the new SCJ. It is a tough call.
 
I can't imagine Obama nominating anyone who would not swear obedience to him, not to the Constitution.

Jim
 
"Alan Gura Says Democrat Nominated Replacement for Scalia Will End Heller"
That's what Cruz is saying, also (and also some stuff about Trump you may or may not agree with). To be honest, we don't need people 'in the know' to tell us a left-balanced court will rapidly end Heller --the ruling is the Democrat's equivalent of Roe v Wade for cryin' out loud, and is the no. 1 issue of the party-backed candidate at this point. The Dems clearly smell blood after Scalia's death (maybe or maybe not metaphorical) and are eager to pounce on what looks to be their last likely opportunity before a massive dice-roll in November.

While the 'natives*' ringing the ridge tops ahead of the showdown seem very imposing to us now, I have a feeling that if we hold the line here, there won't be a whole lot to come afterward, at least not for a while. Just like how we finally broke the backs of the anti-gun 'charity' groups after defeating the federal AWB & absorbing all the 'disposable' political capital federal gun legislation had to work with, I think if we are able to absorb the political capital for appointing a leftist (or any) judge due to this issue specifically, that the message may finally sink in that national gun control is dead for at least a generation (and local gun control is soon to follow it).

The honorable justice Scalia's passing was a left hook many of us were not expecting --if only because his personality was so active & vibrant-- but if Obama/Democrats can't get sweeping federal gun controls through the legislative branch (see AWB/UBC's after Newtown), the executive branch (see extremely limited practical effects of even his most questionable executive directions), or the judicial branch (by stacking the bench 5-4 against us with a nakedly political appointment) --he just doesn't have that many avenues left (actually none, since I don't think he'd find the military would obey such an order of his at this point)

TCB

*just so I don't "offend" anyone again :rolleyes:
 
If future courts honor Stare Decisis Heller and McDonald will stand. Sitting justices have said Heller should be reversed, not that it will be. But they can dilute/nullify it significantly by reducing the level of scrutiny lower courts use in applying it.

As for weathering the storm, there will be a storm and it will have to be weathered. The ability of REpublicans to maintain control of the Senate after November was questionable before Scalia's death. The stakes are higher now and what the Senate does in the meantime regarding nominations well play a role in whether or not the Senate is changes hands. I think one of the last things anyone wants to see on Nov 5 is a Democratic Senate with Chuck Schumer as majority leader (A Dem as President as well is the other).

A moderate filling Scalia's seat can be weathered. Loss of the Senate and White House with an open seat on the court will be a perfect storm.
 
Anyone who doesn't think the Second Amendment is in real danger needs to read Breyer's dissent in McDonald v. City of Chicago (in which he was joined by Ginsburg and Sotomayor.

Here are some highlights:

"I can find nothing in the Second Amendment's text, history, or underlying rationale that could warrant characterizing it as "fundamental" insofar as it seeks to protect the keeping and bearing of arms for private self-defense purposes."

"...why would the Court not now reconsider Heller in light of these more recently published historical views?"

"In sum, the Framers did not write the Second Amendment in order to protect a private right of armed self-defense. There has been, and is, no consensus that the right is, or was, "fundamental." No broader constitutional interest or principle supports legal treatment of that right as fundamental. To the contrary, broader constitutional concerns of an institutional nature argue strongly against that treatment."

Three current Justices signed that opinion rather than Stevens's dissent. A fourth Justice has no Second Amendment cases but was appointed by Obama. At least two of the non-Scalia/Thomas Heller majority have refused to grant cert to 2A cases directly challenging parts of Heller.

Replacing Scalia with another Sotomayor would be as serious as it gets. Ignoring stare decisis and overturning both Heller and McDonald is a very real possibility - not that having Heller reduced to a minor footnote that offers noone any protection is any better for that matter.
 
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Anyone who thinks Heller will be upheld by any Obama nominee is dreaming.
Our only hope is to win the WH for sure, and hopefully to keep the senate.
Fortunately, a lot of dems are pro 2A.
This country will decide its future once again. As Reagan said, every generation determines its freedoms, they are not given to us.
 
If the SCOTUS started over ruling and reversing the decisions of previous SCOTUS benches, after the change of one justice, SCOTUS would become entirely irrelevant.

Future 2A decisions may not go as well for us as Heller and McDonald did, but it would take future decisions to even consider a contradiction of Heller or McDonald.

While it's possible, it's entirely unlikely. SCOTUS decisions aren't exactly set in stone, but they are pretty darned close. A 5-4 decision being revered on a 4-5 reinterpretation wouldn't be a wise choice.

I'm guessing Heller and McDonald are as safe as Roe V. Wade. We'll see what happens when the next Justice is confirmed and SCOTUS has a 2A case in front of them.
 
Uh, yeah, as a bum with no relevant schooling at all, I feel confident saying Breyer was an idiot on that one.

"If future courts honor Stare Decisis Heller and McDonald will stand. Sitting justices have said Heller should be reversed, not that it will be. But they can dilute/nullify it significantly by reducing the level of scrutiny lower courts use in applying it."
Failing to honor Stare Decisis opens up all sorts of skeleton closets that no one wants opened; which is the reason the rule exists in the first place ("the issues were settled, darnit!"). Likewise, failing to consistently require strictest of scrutiny when constitutional rights are at issue would prove to be an incredibly corrosive force on our civil liberties in short order; certain rights given deference over others, certain regions, certain people, certain classes of people... I would say that any judge could see the bottom of that hill clearly from where we now stand, but we still get stuff like the opinion out of Chicago recently, so I guess they haven't yet.

"A moderate filling Scalia's seat can be weathered. Loss of the Senate and White House with an open seat on the court will be a perfect storm."
Agreed, but I still don't see it happening. This cycle looks to be ripe for high turnout on both sides (well, at least if Hillary doesn't win & subsequently get indicted & drop out before the election), which to me suggests that at worst we get the status quo; divided government. If, despite all the headwinds they face today, the Democrats are unstoppable...well, that simply doesn't make sense if they can't even get UBC's passed at the federal level after Newtown. Call me again in eight years when the Republicans/etc are the incumbent party who has everyone ticked off, and I might be more inclined towards doom & gloom, but by then we'll also have had a couple more court appointments in our favor.

Why, it's almost as if the system is self-regulating, or something ;)

TCB
 
Future 2A decisions may not go as well for us as Heller and McDonald did, but it would take future decisions to even consider a contradiction of Heller or McDonald.
Hmm, a handful more cases like Highland Park where a blatant refutation of Heller by a lower court is flatly ignored, and the practical reality will be that the case will have never existed as far as the largest & most influential swathes of the nation are concerned. National efforts to pass laws contradicting it would be emboldened, even with the remaining possibility the court may one day strike them down based on Heller. Precedent un-cited becomes dormant/dead, and eventually non-binding (much like civil liberties, actually)

TCB
 
#14
Bartholomew Roberts
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Anyone who doesn't think the Second Amendment is in real danger needs to read Breyer's dissent in McDonald v. City of Chicago (in which he was joined by Ginsburg and Sotomayor.

Here are some highlights:

"I can find nothing in the Second Amendment's text, history, or underlying rationale that could warrant characterizing it as "fundamental" insofar as it seeks to protect the keeping and bearing of arms for private self-defense purposes."

"...why would the Court not now reconsider Heller in light of these more recently published historical views?"

"In sum, the Framers did not write the Second Amendment in order to protect a private right of armed self-defense. There has been, and is, no consensus that the right is, or was, "fundamental." No broader constitutional interest or principle supports legal treatment of that right as fundamental. To the contrary, broader constitutional concerns of an institutional nature argue strongly against that treatment."

Three current Justices signed that opinion rather than Stevens's dissent. A fourth Justice has no Second Amendment cases but was appointed by Obama. At least two of the non-Scalia/Thomas Heller majority have refused to grant cert to 2A cases directly challenging parts of Heller.

Replacing Scalia with another Sotomayor would be as serious as it gets. Ignoring stare decisis and overturning both Heller and McDonald is a very real possibility - not that having Heller reduced to a minor footnote that offers noone any protection is any better for that matter.




Wow. Scary.
 
This is one time things are very simple to understand.

step one> Senate does as advertised.

step two> elect a candidate available with a proven voting record or clear previous history. To that I will add, one that really has a chance of the nomination i.e. is winning, now. And as a THR topic, one that has a crystal clear vision of 2A.

step three> that President, as they campaigned to do so, only nominates strict Constitutionalists for SCOTUS.

step four> here it is...wait for it.... enjoy your 2A rights now, next year, and in your children's futures as far as federal court cases go. Which is HUGE.
And there's potentially four Justice's to nominate besides the untimely passing of Justice Scalia, may he rest in peace, for a total of five Justices. His passing could possibly be the greatest service he has ever performed, if it awakens 2A supporters to that fact. The SCOTUS will change dramatically for the next 20 years based on the next President's nominees. There is no way around this 2A impacting fact.



Thank you for your attention
 
Then what happens when Hillary Clinton is elected President? Delaying and stalling until Obama is gone isnt going to change the likelihood that she gets the democratic nomination and solidly trounces Trump ( Or Cruz ) in the fall. At some point the Senate will have to confirm "someone". Unless Ron Reagan comes back from the grave and renominates Scalia who also just got back from the grave we arent going to have another Scalia. GWB nominated Roberts. How'd that turn out?
 
If both parties would stop trying to overturn the current set of decisions on social issues that they disagree on, we would be better off.

The Republicans are all hot and bothered about whom one marries and choice issues. The Democrats hate gun rights.

How about they both shut up and accept the precedents. Stop mucking around on the state levels.

Defend the country and get the economy going. Get out of the nation's crotches and holsters.
 
I don't get this argument. SCOTUS confirmed Heller. Whats to overturn? under what grounds. SCOTUS got it right. A later SCOTUS going after a previous ruling would serve no purpose for the court to exist.
 
I don't get this argument. SCOTUS confirmed Heller. Whats to overturn? under what grounds. SCOTUS got it right. A later SCOTUS going after a previous ruling would serve no purpose for the court to exist.
It would serve the purpose of pursuing the political agenda the 4 current justices of the Court's left wing were appointed to pursue. The nullification of the 2nd Amendment protections being a primary component of that agenda. Read post #14. Then read it again.
 
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