AR deals... what is rock bottom?

Status
Not open for further replies.

WestKentucky

Member
Joined
Feb 1, 2014
Messages
13,055
Location
Western Kentucky
WIth deals like this being fairly common, where can things go to get any better? I don’t recall seeing any deals better than this for Black Friday or other sales in the last year or two. $350 plus transfer means $375 for me and a cheap set of eBay sights which are functional puts the total at $400 or less for a complete gun.

On a side note, deals like this and the political situation right now are pushing a lot of sales that otherwise would not be happening. The US populace is better armed than ever before. It’s a great time to be a buyer. 3C28A59F-805D-4A3B-BB10-9213D50D5B5F.png
 
i'd say prices go up from here.
we would need a breakthrough in mfg technology that makes mfg much cheaper.
or a sudden glut of supply.
hard to imagine it, but AR15s are pretty much a commodity now
 
A couple of months back there was an AR carbine for $300 that is as low as I've seen, I've built a cheap AR and wound up about $325.
 
I don’t really care to see AR prices go any lower. It’s too cutthroat as it is. Any cheaper and I would really wonder what I’m getting quality wise as well as the health of the manufacturers.

If anyone hasn’t bought an AR by now then that’s on them, $30 cheaper isn’t going to move them.

What I would really like to see is for ammo to get cheaper.
 
Last edited:
We’re at an all time low, inflation adjusted. Big time all time low.

It’ll be disappointing if we get much lower than this - it’ll imply the market is completely devalued with no demand. We’re seeing high competition with modernized manufacturing to minimize input costs, with high availability, but there’s a dangerous tipping point ahead if we continue to outrun demand with supply. Flooding a market destroys a market, and we’re there, if not only nearly. Demand has to sustain, and we absolutely need prices to hold. Otherwise, we’re just talking about new old stock iPhone 4’s and 5’s going out the door for a song with little to no market value, and only servicing a distinct market of low budget or low interest folks. Stop-loss sales on inventory carry, not profit generation, which sustain until the inventory is gone, all the while, the market has moved on to the next thing even after the next thing...

So yeah, we might continue to see a little more depression in market value here, especially if Trump is re-elected, but that same political result would yield an assured party flip in the 2024, which would sky-rocket prices again, assuming the civilian AR market survives that long.
 
I don’t really care to see AR prices go any lower. It’s too cutthroat as it is. Any cheaper and I would really wonder what I’m getting quality wise.

If anyone hasn’t bought an AR by now then that’s on them, $30 cheaper isn’t going to move them.

What I would really like to see is for ammo to get cheaper.
That doesn’t look too promising at the moment. Call me crazy but it looks like we may be looking at a new and improved war on terror that is in a different location, and it is beginning to look like another boots on the ground escapade. When boots hit the ground, ammo prices don’t drop. When war ends and contracts get cancelled is when the glut of factory overruns hits the shelves.
 
At the last gun show I went to they had two tables there....one selling AR's for 350 and the other for 375.

That is pretty darn inexpensive.

I am not up on the AR market so not sure on the parts.....I just saw the big signs.
 
The price, of AR-15 rifles is driven far more by politics, then it is by actual value. The gun costs X number of dollars to produce, period. Yes, the larger manufacturers can make them slightly cheaper per unit, because of large volume production, and purchases of parts. But that's nothing compared to what politics can do to the price by creating unsustainable demand out of fear.

Look at what happened to AR and AK prices and availability after Obama was elected in 2008. Demand along with prices went through the roof, while supply was all but non existent. Because everyone and their brother thought the end of semi automatic everything was just around the corner. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Obama turned out to be the greatest gun salesman ever. He couldn't even get advanced background checks past after the Sandy Hook shooting.

Now, with all the people who have been buying AR-15's over the last 3 Presidential elections, the saturation point has been reached. Same with magazines. P-Mags are down to under $10 bucks each. (Gen 2 models). Same with 30 and 40 round AK mags. With it looking more and more like Trump is going to walk into a second term each day, this relaxed, worry free anti gun situation, regardless if perceived or real, is going to continue until Trump leaves office on January 20th, 2025. Then, who knows what's going to happen. If his son gets in, us older guys will most likely go to our graves buying cheap, available AR-15's.

There may be some legislation that squeaks through, like bump stocks did. But it's not going to be anywhere near enough to set off a major buying panic. Even mass school shootings no longer have an effect. Because they're becoming an all but weekly occurrence. People were barking at the Moon after Columbine, because they thought for sure a big ban was coming. It never happened. Then came literally dozens of others since then. All with zero effect legislation wise. Except for perhaps some local laws in extreme anti gun cities.

Now, with the liberals doing everything in their power to keep the homeless people defecating on the streets, in as large of numbers as possible, and wanting to legalize drugs at the same time, a high property crime rate is all but assured. This will also help to assure that very limited anti gun legislation gets passed, because people are seeing a much greater need for personal protection from these deadbeats and losers. Except for the states like California and New York, that are already lost causes. People no longer fear gun control like they did. Until something happens to instill that fear once again, AR-15's will remain cheap and available.
 
There is yet another factor to all of this. And that is the total over production the entire black rifle market experienced before, during, and after the 2016 Presidential election.... An election that all but no one expected Trump to win.

Black rifle manufacturers and parts suppliers were producing weapons, magazines, and parts as fast as they could possibly manufacture them. Many black rifle companies, magazine manufacturers, and suppliers were running around the clock, 24/7, in order to keep up with orders. That most all the major warehouses and retailers were sending in. For as much of their products as they could possibly afford to buy. Some even took out loans to buy inventory, that they were all so sure they would turn into a tidy profit.

Because every single one of them thought Hillary was a shoe in. And they wanted to have a big stockpile of product to scalp off at ultra high prices. All because of the Obama like fear, and panic buying spree, they were all but certain Hillary would generate. Over the up and coming gun control they were all so certain would follow.

She attacked the NRA regularly all through her campaign. They were all certain of 2 things. 1.) She would easily win. And 2.) She would bring major assault rifle legislation with her to the Oval Office..... Neither happened.

Now, all of the major warehouses like CDNN, Cheaper Than Dirt, Midway, and countless others are still choking on literally tons of inventory, that they are forced to sell off at massively reduced prices. All because their visions of grandeur, accompanied with a gun buying panic they were all so damn sure would happen,...... Never happened. Many of the larger places are still dusting off boxes, trying to get rid of magazines, uppers, lowers, and complete rifles by having sale after sale.

I get E-Mails from CDNN and Cheaper Than Dirt on magazine and AR-15 rifle sales almost daily. And this has been going on since November 8th, 2016 when Trump was elected President. They had that crap piled up to the rafters. And they're still trying to sell it off. For many of them Trump's election ended up costing them money, instead of making it.

Once again it's the politics of it all. ALWAYS the politics. Which is why I have to laugh at some of these gun forums, (not necessarily this one), who won't allow anything political discussed about firearms. Guns by their very nature ARE political. And they will continue to become even more so with each and every passing election..... Even down to their prices.
 
The price, of AR-15 rifles is driven far more by politics, then it is by actual value. The gun costs X number of dollars to produce, period......

Well lets think about this for a sec.

After the "machine tools" are amortized out just what are the costs....about $5 in metal and another $5 in plastic.

I do not disagree that "politics" can effect the price of goods....just ask anyone in venezuela....however driving costs down....not like you are suggesting.

Sure I agree a favorable climate can make goods more available, and more "easy" to get our grubby little mitts on.....but it is really the market itself that drives prices.

Every dog and his brother are making AR's now....it is only when you go off into the weeds of this platform that you get into some of the more pricey items.

The basic GUN is pretty inexpensive to make....and as such the prices are coming down and down as the next guy makes the next one for a little less margin.
 
So what is the actual price of a ready to go AR now for someone wanting a solid piece of entry level basic hardware? From a reputable outfit...
 
Well lets think about this for a sec. After the "machine tools" are amortized out just what are the costs....about $5 in metal and another $5 in plastic.

It's more than that. You have perishable tooling costs that require constant replacement. Plastic molds for stocks, hand guards, and pistol grips. Of which none are inexpensive to produce, run, and maintain.

Then there are the open forging dies for the lowers. Screws, barrels, nuts, and fasteners. And on and on. Then you have packaging and shipping costs. The company doesn't pay for any of that. You do when you buy their product.

Then there are the employees that have to be paid with benefits, and insured. The building, along with heat, A/C, water, sewer, and property taxes. So it's a lot more than $10 bucks a gun.

I do not disagree that "politics" can effect the price of goods....just ask anyone in Venezuela...not like you are suggesting.

The politics create the unsustainable demand, which in turn drives up the cost monumentally. As soon as the supply diminishes, up goes the cost. People will always be willing to pay more for something they want, but cannot have.

By the same token when the product is no longer threatened to be banned, due to a pro gun political climate, the demand is relaxed. Simply because the politics no longer threaten their very existence.

Add to that all of the people who bought when there was a panic, and the demand shrinks tremendously. And as a direct result, prices plummet. Don't kid yourself. Much of this is ALL political.
 
Last edited:
Blem PSA carbine kits for $289, just add a stripped lower and a sight and you're good to go, kind of ridiculous.
https://palmettostatearmory.com/psa...Avantlink&utm_medium=Referral&utm_campaign=cl

Dang ye PSA. I have been considering building a cheap AR to use up some of the spare parts that keep growing on my bench but for $289...

I have no need for another AR but the history of politics and gun control laws tell me that the Libs and anti-2A will be continuing to try ban guns in States after their win in Virginia.

p.s. Whew! I dodged the bullet, er buy. PSA is out-of-stock for this gun.
 
Last edited:
think back to what you couldn't get during the awb and the panic, and get that now if you haven't already.
 
I don't recall where I saw it but there was an AR15 carbine on black friday for $299. Even came with sights. Not poilymer either, although price wise that no longer seems to matter much.

The manufacturers are getting really good at shaking out every penny of added costs. i would not be at all surprised if $300-350 is the new norm for low end ARs.
 
I have bought a number of kits from PSA and they are very good for entry level ARs and if you want you can always upgrade parts.

They now charge sales tax on them so I would look for deals that include free shipping.

M
 
Now, all of the major warehouses like CDNN, Cheaper Than Dirt, Midway, and countless others are still choking on literally tons of inventory, that they are forced to sell off at massively reduced prices.

this comment among others is interesting. The market has certainly been strong long enough to outrun 2 elections worth of panic buying, both during Obama’s 2nd run and the Hillary run so some people are viewing current deals similar to stoploss sales (90% off holiday stuff after Christmas or off of scary stuff after the ban panic). Clearly this cant be because the market is still strong enough to support multiple smaller manufacturers. If that were the case, then inventory would have been liquidated to folks like PSA, but that’s not happening even now. I wonder if market saturation is finally just to a point where sales have softened, competition has increased to go after the customers in the smaller market, and it has finally become a simple commodity. I see it no differently than 1980s and 1990s gun markets where a marlin 336 or a Winchester 94 were so plentiful and common that a hundred dollar bill would buy a nice used one and $159 would buy a new one (mom bought dad a glenfield 30a new as a wedding gift and it was $129 in 1978, tag still on the box in his attic). Similar to lever guns, market hit saturation, sales slowed a bit, but now there are still a bunch of other manufacturers still in the game. Winchester and Marlin still rule the roost but Henry, Mossberg, and others are in the game too.
 
Yes, they're selling AR's. No question about it. But look at the prices. The reason they are selling is only because they are all but giving them away. Many guys are buying their 2nd, or 3rd AR-15. Only because they're so cheap.

I can all but guarantee you if Hillary was President today, instead of Trump, those guns would be selling at TRIPLE the price they are now. And they would be standing in line to buy them..... Assuming there were any left to buy. Lever actions are not under any such political scrutiny.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top