Spats nailed it with regard to balance - it's easier to carry a full-sized 1911 on your hip if you've got 2 mags on the other hip. That said I'm carrying one spare mag right now because this pair of pants doesn't fit my dual mag pouch in a way that lets me carry it where I want it.
I think there's a bit more analysis required here. As someone who doesn't belong to a gang, doesn't sell drugs, doesn't live in a bad neighborhood while playing Keep Up with the Joneses, doesn't engage in road rage incidents, and so on, I see the standard risk assessment like this:
- It is very rare that one will need to pull a gun
- Once that gun leaves the holster, most of the time that solves the issue without any shots being fired.
- When shots are fired, 3-4 shots seems to be the average number of shots required to solve the problem.
So, pulling probabilities outta my behind I get:
There's a one in 15,000 chance of needing my gun
today (that's once in 40 years - adjust if you feel you're at greater risk). If I do need it, then there's a 30% chance I'll need to fire. If I fire, there's a 30% chance I'll need more than 4 rounds (let's assume I can hit what I aim at and my opponents aren't
that disciplined and motivated.) That means that the odds of needing > one mag out of my pistol today are 0.0006%. Which is a pretty low probability. There's a black bear that's been pooping by the steel targets in the back yard which I'll guess I'd have a greater chance of needing to shoot, hence the hardball in my gun at present...
Feel free to attack the numbers. I can remember twice around about a decade ago when some fairly aggressive folks appeared on my property (likely looking for stuff to steal and sell for salvage, and didn't expect anyone to be home, and certainly didn't expect me to be studying on the back porch smoking cigars) who turned more respectful when I stood up and they saw the pistol on my hip. Does that count? Or is it the fact that I'm a
big dude who's not easily intimidated and can come across as angry with very forced politeness unless I try to be nice?
If we adjust the numbers a bit to assume there's a once-every-four-year need for your carry sidearm, then we're still only looking at a 00.006% probability you'll need the excess rounds on any given day. Do that every day with the same probabilities and you'll find after 40 years you had about a 90% probability of needing > 4 rounds at least once.
So you're probably fine to do whatever it is you're doing, but as a general rule a spare mag or two is solid advice. Rule One of a gunfight is to bring a gun, so if you're not willing to bring more than a pocket revolver then bring it - it's a whole lot better than an empty hand.
Me? I try to carry at least one spare mag with a full-sized pistol. I prefer two, but I don't feel unarmed with 9 rounds of 45ACP (or 8 rounds of 9mm if I really need to conceal).