Poised for Recession? Guns or Gold?

[1911Tuner]

People are NOT interested in small, shiney objects when their stomachs are empty. A diamond becomes a pretty little rock with absolutely no use to the adverage person.

Yes. Exactly.

I can't give you a truckload. We need food, too. Here's your choice-- Take a bag of food for that diamond, or walk away hungry."
You'll take the deal.

Yep. Spot on.

And then we are back to the point that you will NEVER get what you think the value of such would be in a barter-- nor would you be able to "break" it for smaller transactions.

And that brings us to why ammunition is a good barter item. For not a lot of cash investment up front...even with the rising prices...you have something that's easily divisible and not as subjective as to what it's worth in relation to what is wanted or needed. During a national crisis, it will likely become quickly unavailable at the retail level...either because of a run on the stocks or by mandate...which I saw happen in Winston-Salem, NC during the riots of '68...and thus will become more valuable as it becomes growingly scarce.

.22 rimfire will be the one to look at closely. Almost everybody has a .22 rifle.
.38 Special is next. There are probably more .38s lying around in households than any other handgun. A reasonable store of .30-30...12 and 20 gauge shotshells, evenly split between #6 and buckshot would be a good idea...00Buck for the 12 and #1 buck for the 20. Maybe a box or two of .410 bore, too. Form there, you can decide if you want some of the other calibers to be represented in your locker...the amount of which is dictated by how prolific each one is. .30-06 and .308 would be more likely than .35 Whelen, for instance. No real need to stock up heavily on the current polular calibers.
Most of the folks who have those will probably have seen to their stores before the crunch, so the call for more than a box or so won't be too likely.
Ditto for the popular CAS calibers. Those guys reload, almost without exception. Primers and powder might not be a bad idea, come to think of it.

The list could go on...

 

[Ed Ames]

There really are several types of trade and each can benefit from a different sort of currency.

Trading for food? Ammo makes a good coin. Whiskey seems better in that you can easily make more.

Trading for a radio, gun, or the like on a black market (where the items are being smuggled into the country from a more healthy nation)? They don't want your ammo (they can import it in case lots) and they probably don't want your whiskey. Gold would be really good to have.

Trading for things of yet higher value? An airplane ride or maybe the whole airplane? Diamonds become a decent trade good.

JWarren is right that 100 diamonds, if that's all you had, would translate to 100 loaves of bread. However, if you also had 100 grams of gold, 10,000 rounds of assorted ammo, a supply of food, a decent car, a house, and so on.... his point becomes less accurate.

 

[earplug]

Check out Goldmoney.com
They have been in business for a number of years and are expanding.
You convert dollars into gold or silver, Goldmoney keeps it in vaults.
When and if you need to spend it, its transfered into dollars, British Pounds, Euros etc. then wired to your location.
This is a viable way to travel and have access to your wealth.
At the current low interest rates on savings accounts this service offers a better way to protect your wealth.
Being able to trade in small units such as Gold Grams is nice.
Recently in Africa people have done trade/barter in phone minutes. Easily transfered and useable.
When your currency is worthless you need a means of barter that is easy to exchange and wanted.

 

[gym]

I think we are talking about 2 or 3 different scenarious from reading some of the posts, I was adressing a recession, or depression, some of you are talking about a total collapse of the ifastructure, police, business, more like, "I am Legend", without the zombies, that ain't happening in our lifetime, unless someone slips and hits the button, in which case nothing is going to help unless you have a bunker where you can make your own oxygen. So in that case you won't have to worry about what to trade, only about how long you can avoid breathing, and living below the surface. As nothing will sustain you if there is a nuclear war because everyone has the technology to make and launch nuclear missles, and I think that if one country launched an attack, the others would retaliate against anyone that they thought was responsible. Thus the end of modern society, could it happen yes, but I sure hope it dosen't, people wouldn't be trading, they would be taking for thier own temporary survival

 

[ctdonath]

But it's so much more fun to discuss total collapse!

Maybe the thing is that the lead question addressed "guns or gold" - neither of which is especially relevant for a mere recession. Get out of debt, cut costs, have a cash reserve, and take advantage of lowered prices & interest rates where available.

 

[gym]

I am a trader, that's why I'm always around during the day, latest news is the "high end" forclosures are up 50%, just announced that's houses over a million dollars, 10% are upside down. And small lenders are cancelling commitments for college loans, this stuff is just happening in real time, it's getting worse by the day, every report that comes out is worse than the previous one. So maybe I should start thinking in terms of the Doomsday scenario, looks like public unrest is growing, and violent crime is up every day. Our govt. seems to be unable to fix the mess created by wallstreet. People who are paying mortgages that are upside down, higher than thier home is worth, just getting fed up and walking away.We are seeing more homes going into forclosure and now it's spreading into the auto loan and credit card sectors, they expect at least 100 local banks to go down in coming months, and this is just the surface. No one knows who owns these loans, as they were cut up and packged with bonds and other securitys and sold by brokerage houses as tripple A credit instraments, so your pension fund IRA etc can be holding this stuff, and you don't even know it. it's starting to get scary.

 

[Ash]

What I find odd about this whole thing is that millions of people have no problem paying on loans for cars. The day they drive the car off the lot, the loan is for a sum of money greater than the value of their car. Their car cannot be sold for their loan amount. The solution? These folks drive their car!

What amazes me is that a person would walk away from a home loan worth more than their house. Yeah, it sucks. But in ten years, the house's value will have returned or exceeded initial loan value. Of course, the folks walking away are, perhaps in large part, the "flippers" who never intended to live in the house. Otherwise, if you owe more on your house than it is worth, the logical solution is to live there. The house's value will in time rise and equity will return. As an investment, it might not be stellar, but sheesh, folks need to look beyond the next six months.

Ash

 

[AntiqueCollector]

How many people in this country are ready to live off of the land? How many bambis? How much land? And are you ready to go to war with them to eat? Take the land, even if someone else has claimed it? Then defend that land, and the critters on it, using deadly force? Because if someone poaches bambi from that land, you starve.

That's the end game of "I will take my rifle and live off the land if things get bad" in an industrial country. The math doesn't look good for that approach.

Most people don't have the skills to actually live off the land, be it via hunting/gathering or small scale/subsistence farming. After a while most of the competition would dry up. Like the last great Depression, those with the land paid for, no debt and skills to live without needing much from the outside world, will do well this time around if it continues to worsen economically. The typical middle class or working class city person will either have a harsh life (maybe even starve or freeze to death) or demand handouts from the government (maybe FDR put it in nicer words to people but his programs were handouts the country could not afford just the same). Don't expect a cushy life during hard times.

Oh, to the original poster: get out of debt! If you're in a good area for it try gold prospecting if you want gold. I even managed to find a little bit in Vermont (though even at current prices it's not worth the effort here, might be worth the effort in Alaska when I get there). Just a 1/10 of an ounce gold coin right now will cost nearly 100 dollars and probably more with premiums added. Can't buy much at those prices. Maybe a handful of old silver dollars would be okay but again, it'll take a lot of fiat paper "money" to buy that real money. Consider also that if you're the one with the food, you won't be needing to spend a lot of gold and silver. The people who will go through it quick are the ones who want to buy their survival and don't have food or the means and skills for getting it themselves. If things get real rough, you have no food and no land and no way of getting your own, but I do because I have my land and the skills for producing my own food, sure, I'll sell you beans: I'll take a silver dime for every individual bean. Get my point with this?

Silver/gold is best for protecting against inflation, but it's too late now to truly protect any savings, should of bought it when it was $7 or $8 an ounce silver and $300 gold.

Guns? I love guns but I have enough now and will buy other items till I feel it makes sense financially to do much buying. Maybe something cheap here or there like a mosin or old H&R/Iver Johnson/etc. type guns, but I surely would not buy an expensive one unless I really needed it.

Ammunition for trading? I'm not giving any to anyone I don't trust if things get bad. Buy it and reloading stuff for yourself but not for trade.

 

[orb]

Anyone think now is a good time to sell gold?

 

[Geronimo45]

anyone think now is a good time to sell gold?

Yes. The experts are all telling you to buy so that they can sell and make a profit.

 

[Eastex]

"anyone think now is a good time to sell gold?

If you sell your gold, what will you do with the money? If you don't need the funds immediately, hang on to the PM.

A basic survival plan takes all scenarios into account. Is food going to increase in price? You gotta have food, or the cash to buy. How much cash to you dare to keep? Six months of bills? But if stagflation strikes, how quickly will 6 months of cash wither to 3 or 4 months? And that's the case for gold and silver.

I don't know about ya'll, but Andrew Jackson on my $20. bill is looking hollow-eyed, and Ben Franklin on my C note looks like he's lost 30 lbs. this last week. But Lady Liberty on my GAE looks good!

 

[JohnBT]

I would like to reply to the comment on the current news that about 100 banks could fail. Shrug. How many banks are there and which ones are failing? Big ones, little ones? Here's a chart from 2003. There are thousands and thousands of banks - 9000+. I don't know if the chart includes credit unions or just banks, but either way we're only talking about one percent or so.

 

[Ed Ames]

In the late 80s there were over 23,000 independent banks in the USA. By the mid 90s it was down to 15,000.

That was a recession. The numbers stabilized for a while and then dropped again in the late 90s/early 2Ks. IIRC the total number of financial institutions (banks and credit unions) still standing is in the 13,000 range.

Is there any harm in that? I'm not sure. Large banks are more likely to engage in predatory practices... and they enable larger individual fraud losses (see Societe General) but they are also (obviously) more likely to survive a major financial catastrophe intact.

 

[1911Tuner]

I don't know if the chart includes credit unions or just banks, but either way we're only talking about one percent or so.

A bank doesn't have to fail. All that's required for a disaster is for people to get the idea that banks are failing...panic...and make a run on the ones that are solvent. (Whistling noise...growing louder, and....Boom!)

 

[XavierBreath]

If you google "SHTF forums" you will find several to discuss SHTF scenerios on. This forum is for General Gun Discussions, not the relative value of precious metals, stones, bonds and bread is an economic collapse or slump.

While the thread began as a marginally on topic one, it has taken the expressway to off topicality.