I’m not sure where the first two waves of this as you say imaginary shortages were but the current one is pretty Damn real. Shelves are empty Power Valley sold out again. You must something we don’t
Call Hodgdon and ask why the shelves are empty - that’s what I have done which most of these “oh no, all the Varget is gone,” posts have not done. There wasn’t any change to the flow of Varget, not in bulk to Hodgdon, or in retail packaging to consumers. But retailers and Hodgdon both are facing increasing back orders as this rumor of a shortage is spreading around.
First wave - an actual increase in real demand. A BUNCH of high volume competitive shooters switched to 6 BR based cases this season. A few shelves ran dry.
Enter the ridiculous rumor-mill: because these shelves ran dry, a bunch of idiots started telling stories about a fire at ADI or GD or a Hodgdon warehouse, or telling lies about new Trump tax impacts on importation, or about higher Australian demand pushing Varget to local demand instead of the US, or other non-descript and unsubstantiated claims about supply interruptions - ESPECIALLY claiming “shipments wouldn’t be made until Q1 of 2020” or “after the new year,” since it sounds so official. Further propagated by dozens of Internet forum posts regurgitating these red herring tales...
Second Wave: the folks who didn’t think to question any of these wild claims ran out and bought out inventories. Folks who might buy one or two pounds per year bought out 10+ pound inventories. Even a professional shooter at GAP Grind bought 24lbs (all Hodgdon had on hand) - about three barrels worth, when he probably really only needed 8lbs at that point in time.
So the imaginary prophecies became self-fulfilling, even though actual usage demand increase for Varget barely moved the needle.
Third wave: the late comers to this particular dance are finally starting to notice Varget is out of stock at their usual sources, so they poke around online to see why, and they’re finding all of these rumor-mill posts and reports of empty inventories, and they’re placing back orders, and panic buying in the same way the second wave had 3-4 months ago.
So as I said above - stop panicking, backorder what you’ll responsibly use in a reasonable timeline, and don’t buy an entire shelf-full when you find some, and everything will get back to normal soon enough.
Same thing happened to H4350 2 years ago, and at a lower level, the same thing is happening to Retumbo now too, since a certain portion of the country is growing tired of the LR game, and thinks they need to jump on the ELR bandwagon. A small increase in demand emptied a few shelves, a bunch of people started screaming about the sky falling, and suddenly there really isn’t enough Varget on shelves. Ride it out, it’ll level out soon enough.
ETA: I called Hodgdon for myself on October 8, after seeing a few posts like this. I also spoke with their rep at the Midwest Regional Finale a few weeks later. I posted about these on Nov 11 here as well on another “oh no, where’s all of the Varget?” threads. Anyone can contact Hodgdon on their own dime if they so choose.