What will a HK MP5 be worth in 10 years?

[mig7410]

Not a clone, A real HK class III automatic submachine gun. The gun is in 80-85% condition, and will be a semi safe queen, might use it two or three times a year.
Right now the host gun is going for about 4 or 5k, and the sear about 10 to 12k. So it will be around 15K, plus $200.00 for the stamp.
I know a lot will have to do with what the gun laws are in 10 years, lets just say they stay the same.
I'm not looking for a investment, just would like to get back most of my money when and if I want to sell it.
Also, what did a MP5 cost 10 years ago?

 

[FIVETWOSEVEN]

don't they normally cost 18K? or is it because its condition?

 

[mp510]

Prices are down just a little bit because of the economy and the fact that there are a few more MGs on the market than usual because a growing number of the long time owners are retiring and cashing out. More or less, the prices will probably be a little bit higer in ten years; but I believe that the rapid price jump is over.

 

[AK103K]

I paid $800 for one back in 86. $450 for the HK94 and $350 for the conversion. I sold it a couple of years back here, straight out to a dealer for $15000. At that point it was well used and they were going to rebuild and update it before reselling it. At the time, a gun in good shape was going for around $20-22000. A year later they had dropped to around $15-18000.

The time to have bought in was back before Regan signed the ban. Right after he signed the bill, pistol caliber guns went from say $800 on average to $4500 pretty much overnight, and then went skywards. These days, I dont think you'll see that kind of return. Then again, unless they reopen the registry, you also have attrition, and guns that go down cant normally be replaced, so prices probably wont go down to much, as the number go down, the prices will probably rise. Thats assuming everyone is shooting them like we do/did. Some wont.

You also always have the "total ban" possibility and everything becomes contraband and you loose all.

 

[Avenger29]

You also always have the "total ban" possibility and everything becomes contraband and you loose all.

Or you suffer an unfortunate KaBoom! incident that severely damages or completely ruins the gun.

 

[AK103K]

Thats what I meant by the gun going down. Thats something thats always possible and the nature of the beast, especially if you shoot a lot. These days, with ammo costs being what they are, reloads become attractive and can add to the problem. Not that factory ammo is any kind of guarantee, but its usually less of a problem.

 

[iiibdsiil]

I'd love to see if in 10 years they have beat inflation. I doubt it. I guess not many other investments have either though.

 

[1KPerDay]

One meeeeelion dollars.

 

[DoubleTapDrew]

http://machinegunpriceguide.com/html/price_guides.html
This shows the price trend over the last 6 or so years for a bunch of different models, click on the category at the top of the page.

 

[rfurtkamp]

Two points:

- In the 80-85% range, it's not a safe queen. Host guns going for the prices you've listed are in much better shape. Also, deduct $$ if it's not a top-end conversion (remark, 3-lug conversion, paddle mag). Shooter HKs sell, but you won't get top dollar for them.

- Combination of gun + sear doesn't net you the full value in the market. To divorce them, that's another $200 to SBR the host.

I'd also wager that in real terms a lot of the non-new-in box 94 conversions aren't going to radically increase in value, or even keep up with inflation - using your assumptions, the availability of clones as sear hosts, and the new Turkish HK-tooling imports to satisfy the semi-market, will keep the host value relatively low when combined with its condition.

I'm also having a difficult time believing that the upward spiral of MG prices we saw in the boom is going to radically go upwards on what is already at 11-13k registered sear.

I'd expect it to likely hold its value +/- a reasonable amount.

As far as what it cost 10 years ago, the sear hype hadn't gotten quite stupid, it was still 1.5k-2k, and the host's value (as well as long-term value) were in most respects artificially blown up by the then-present AWB. But that was buying before the boom really hit, and well, I wouldn't expect similar results.

Executive summary: buy it if you want it, expect that you'll pay a convenience/ownership fee for enjoying it, and can sell it down the road relatively close to what you paid for it, nothing more.

 

[mig7410]

good info guys, thanks
1KPerDay, expect a pm in about ten years.
I think I'll go for it. I already got a HK33 semi that I can use the sear in, so that makes it a little more affordable.
Here is a video of some FA fun. At 1:20 is me shooting the MP5.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL96vM-i6tc