Only 256,162 braced firearms were registered with ATF during the 120-day "amnesty" period

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old lady new shooter

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G&G and Washington Gun Law both reported on this. This is a TINY percentage of braced firearms in circulation, regardless of whose estimate is used.

The Washington Gun Law report includes more information, notably about the significance of the fact that Mock v Garland will already be tried on June 29th.


Here's the G&G link as well:
 
So if there is 5 million in circulation, that would be about a 5% compliance rate, give or take however many people brought them into compliance by removing the brace or some other means.

It'd be interesting to see how many people just said to heck with it and ignored it not understanding the severity of the violation or how many people just aren't plugged in and don't even know that anything changed. It would be next to impossible to determine, but 250K registered is more than I expected, about 250K more than I had hoped.....
 
DustyGmt said:
So if there is 5 million in circulation, that would be about a 5% compliance rate, give or take however many people brought them into compliance by removing the brace or some other means.

It'd be interesting to see how many people just said to heck with it and ignored it not understanding the severity of the violation or how many people just aren't plugged in and don't even know that anything changed. It would be next to impossible to determine, but 250K registered is more than I expected, about 250K more than I had hoped.....
Click to expand...
I think ATF's estimate of braced pistols in circulation was 3 to 7 million, but that only went up to 2021. The Congressional Research Service estimated 10 to 40 million in circulation.

People who either removed the brace or changed out their upper for one with a 16" barrel are technically in compliance, but if the real goal was to make a registry then only the ones who registered count.

Can't wait to see the final ruling in Mock v Garland!
 
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old lady new shooter said:
G&G and Washington Gun Law both reported on this. This is a TINY percentage of braced firearms in circulation, regardless of whose estimate is used.

The Washington Gun Law report includes more information, notably about the significance of the fact that Mock v Garland will already be tried on June 29th.


Here's the G&G link as well:
Click to expand...


Good stuff there! Really nice to see there are some lawyers who seem to be genuinely on our side and willing to "unofficially" discuss/support the "5th option"!

Kinda reminds me of another recent mandate and compliance issue. I knew quite a few folks who swore they "would not comply" but ended up... complying.
 
I thought about doing a SBR registration, decided not to. A couple thoughts on that:
  • in a vacuum, going SBR would be ideal, and doing so free would seem great
  • it's not in a vacuum. Nobody trusts what is happening. That includes people who already have stuff registered (other SBRs, suppressors etc).
 
How many millions have never heard about any actions taken against braces?

Not every gun owner stays on top of things. We (THR) may have had 200 threads on the subject but we only have around 230k members and I’d bet $1 that not every one of them even knows and I’d win that bet.
 
lsudave said:
I thought about doing a SBR registration, decided not to.
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It is my opinion that registration could be precursor to confiscation. ;)

Fairly easy to knock on doors if there's a list of names, addresses, firearms with serial numbers. :cool:

jmorris said:
How many millions have never heard about any actions taken against braces?
Click to expand...
In CA, we already ran through that exercise that ignorance of the law doesn't help you if you were found to have broken the law. Just takes unhappy ex-girlfriend/boyfriend or spouse and you could have someone knocking on your door.

Doc Samson said:
Kinda reminds me of another recent mandate and compliance issue.
Click to expand...
You mean the bump stock thing that 5th/6th Circuits ruled ATF violated APA/Constitution and exceeded legal authority? - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...n-80-percent-kits.908730/page-2#post-12614023
 
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LiveLife said:
In CA, we already ran through that exercise that ignorance of the law doesn't help you if you were found to have broken the law.
Click to expand...

I didn’t intend to make any implication that it would still be OK to have one, just stating the fact that there are people out there that don’t know they have something forbidden.

If I trust the Congressional estimate of 40 million, I’d say there are more that never heard the news than the number that successfully registered theirs.
 
jmorris said:
just stating the fact that there are people out there that don’t know they have something forbidden ... estimate of 40 million, I’d say there are more that never heard the news than the number that successfully registered theirs.
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That is true ... Heck, there may still be some people who are unaware of magazine capacity laws in many states.
 
tarosean said:
NSSF estimates 20m +/- AR's produced. I find it hard to believe that there are 40m braced pistols out there.
Click to expand...
I find that number (20m AR rifles) to be quite low. I may be misremembering, but years ago, pursuant to a debate thread on a lefty website that I used to inhabit, I went so far as to find the ATF manufacturer reports on rifles sold per year, and spent waaaaay too much time summing the totals for all the years in a spreadsheet, specifically looking at facilities that manufactured AR’s. I want to say the cumulative total was more than 20 million even back in 2006-2008 or whenever it was, unless I am conflating that with something else.

Do note that the ATF figures for rifles would not include AR pistols, since they are tracked separately, so whatever the pistol number is, it is not included in the rifle numbers. I don’t believe it is anywhere close to 40 million though, since in my neck of the woods AR carbines are much, much more popular than AR pistols, so I think the pistol number would be in the single-digit millions out of 30-40 million total AR’s (rifles + pistols) in the U.S.
 
tarosean said:
NSSF estimates 20m +/- AR's produced. I find it hard to believe that there are 40m braced pistols out there.
Click to expand...
I wonder how many 80% receivers and Glock magazine compatible PCC were sold? ;)

I think many people considered pistol braces more for 9mm carbine/"pistol" applications.

benEzra said:
I don’t believe it is anywhere close to 40 million though, since in my neck of the woods AR carbines are much, much more popular than AR pistols, so I think the pistol number would be in the single-digit millions out of 30-40 million total AR’s (rifles + pistols) in the U.S.
Click to expand...
That maybe for your neck of the woods but many in urban/metropolitan areas could prefer shorter braced "pistols" to carry in backpacks, etc.
 
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