Hit Probability of selected 12 gauge buckshot cartridges as a function of distance

It's often said here that every shotgun barrel is a law unto itself where patterning is concerned, and shotgun patterning sometimes seems to have more to do with magic than with science. It's necessary for every serious student of defensive shotgunning to pattern their gun/barrel/choke with a variety of ammunition at various ranges to determine what results their gun will actually produce under the circumstances at hand. You have to burn powder and punch paper to really know what your given shotgun will do with a given load at a given range as far as patterning is concerned, and even knowing that much doesn't necessarily tell you what penetration it will yield at longer ranges.

50 yards is a l o n g way for buckshot...

lpl

Interesting study, and the presentation is very classy.

I'm a bit confused by some of the terminology..... does "Hit Percentage (% of pellets on target)" refer to the percent of pellets in a single shell which actually struck the B27 target?

Similarly, the term "Hit Probability" is a bit confusing..... is this the probability of hitting the B27 target with any of the pellets from a single shell?

It would have been less confusing for me if the report had included the raw data (ie, number of pellets on target for each shot)....

The 12ga shotgun as a defensive tool except for those in law enforcement. Will be limited to ranges much much less than 50 yards. With the current average home size in the US being less than 2700 sq'. This includes basement or upstairs. So a normal home has roughly 1350-1450 sq' main floor area. In my experience as a remodeling contractor and home builder most homes are in the neighborhood of 54-60 feet overall length. So 30 yards max. More like 20-25 yards average. Most clear areas be it a large living room or hallway rarely exceed 25 feet. So 8 yards.

With many so called experts touting the need for 00buck shot or slugs and the ineffectivness of so called bird shot. My 870 wingmaster shooting #6 shot through a modified choke holds a 11 1/4" overall pattern at 8 yards. So 324 pellets in the size of a basketball. Which will flat open up the chest cavity of anything that may enter your home. I appreciate your findings and work in development but to much is being pushed for the need for overkill at over-extended ranges.

I would love to see some real world data using both buckshot and say #4 and #6 shot.

"So 30 yards. Most clear areas be it a large living room or hallway rarely exceed 25 feet."



Dang, a mansion.

My entire lot is only 25.5' x 90'. The house on it is a 1916 inner city free-standing town house.

Trying to be optomistic for the largest open distance a home owner would encounter. You are right though most SD ranges would be much shorter than I posted.

Like i said the OP has a great format and good information. I am not disputing that one bit. I am by know means picking on the OP or his findings. I would just love to see a follow up with real world distances which would prove the effectivness of shotgun ammuntion other than buckshot.

to much is being pushed for the need for overkill at over-extended ranges.

For some of us out here in the boondocks, the real world is measured in acres rather than feet, and law enforcement response time may well measure somewhere between most of an hour and never. From my front door to the 'house fence' gate (always locked when not actually being used) is 51 yards, and a shotgun is likely to be the handiest long gun available here in an emergency. Different people living in different situations face different realities - that's not good or bad, right or wrong, it's just different. No amount of insisting that any one reality is the only reality is going to change that.

I would just love to see a follow up with real world distances which would prove the effectivness of shotgun ammuntion other than buckshot.

So would I but in order for that to happen, someone would first have to compile the data on shotgun shootings and then be willing to share it in a publicly available venue. Neither one of those is particularly likely to happen, unfortunately. We seem to be stuck with only anecdotal material, and not a lot of that.

lpl

I'd sure like to see the results with an open choke. I suspect most people with a dedicated home defense shotgun have chosen a short barreled open choke gun.

Good stuff!

While I haven't done any exhaustive testing at 50 yards, I have tested my favorite 00 Buck round (Federal LE133 00) at 50 yards. Here's a sample of the results when fired from a Mossberg 930 SPX (no choke). Six of eight pellets within the white of the target.

Thanks for posting this,JE223. Real world data trumps fantasy and conjecture big time.

Like Lee said, everyone has to burn powder and punch paper to find out what THAT shotgun with THAT choke and THAT load will do,time after time.

All these years I've been telling folks they need to pattern their gun and load at the longest possible shop opp in their house plus a yard for GPs. And then to also pattern at 25 yards in case things happen outside. Maybe I should go for 50, some combinations still fall under 12" at that range...

"Trying to be optomistic for the largest open distance a home owner would encounter"

I know, I have 3" Hevi-Shot hunting ammo should I need it for some reason downtown. The big goose loads hold their velocity pretty well at longer ranges and the 2.75" duck loads aren't too bad either.

Since all of my training with shotguns was specifically for police work you might want to know how a standard Rem. Wingmaster 18" barrel (every one I've ever seen or handled had an improved cylinder choke) or Mossberg 500 (not my first preference since ours were pretty loose fitting and older) functions with 23/4" shell OO buck rounds. They just about always could be counted on to disperse those nine pellets at one inch per meter from the muzzle. That means a 7" pattern at 7 meters. One of the ways beginners were taught to understand this was to put a series of white paper squares in target frames and fire a single shot that cut paper from a few feet all the way out to the 25 yard line. That same technique clearly shows the slight rise in buck from the muzzle out to 25 yards... if the demo was done perfectly level and all the frames were in line.

Showing how that weapon actually functions and what you could expect a load of OO buckshot to do down range goes a long way towards understanding what it was capable of. I understand that these days (I'm out of active service fifteen years now) shotguns are not favored in police work since it's difficult to teach many how to work with them. Nothing compares to a competent 'gunner at ranges under 25 yards. You just have to remember to aim just a bit low...

Tighter chokes for longer distances don't always work with larger pellets like buckshot. It's possible to over-choke buckshot, distorting the pellets so much from choke compression that patterns actually open up more than they would have otherwise.

Only way to know is to try - but if you have an open choke (CYL or Police CYL) barrel, you owe it to yourself to try patterning a buckshot load that has the FliteControl wad (Federal LE or Premium, Hornady TAP, or Speer Lawman all offer loads with this wad). After years of availability, people still refuse to believe what their eyes tell them about the patterns this wad will produce. Six inches or smaller patterns at 25 yards with 00 are not that unusual.

lpl

A couple of years back a retired police guy with lots of SWAT/ERT time taught us a "tactical shotgun" course. Despite the use of "tactical" in the title it was all rather practical and pragmatic stuff.

The issue of buckshot patterning was to take the target out to a distance where 7 out of the 9 pellets were still witin a 12 inch diameter circle. The idea being that this represented a good goal for COM hits. For most of our short barrelled defense style shotguns that were obviously sporting cylinder chokes this ranged from 12to 20 yards. His feeling was that behond that we would not see enough damage to the critical COM area to justify the shot other than as a delay to drop load a slug for the followup.

A "drop load" being to cycle the pump back, tip out the buck that was brought out onto the elevator and toss a slug from a side saddle into the ejection port then pump forward and shoot.

We did all this and more and it was a helluva eye opener into what it's like to be on a SWAT/ERT team and holding a shotgun as the primary.

The drill I prefer to tighten up hits on target with a police shotgun is to load at least one round of slug into the mix with each four shells of buckshot (and do it randomly by loading only by feel). You'll find out immediately if you're really paying attention to your shooting when you check the target after a short, four or five shot string (and that's using a popper with only a bead front sight...). I figure that a reasonably competent 'gunner should be able to hit a paper pie plate every time with that simple sighting arrangement using slugs at 25 yards.

... and always aim just a tiny bit low.