Repost from another thread -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...out-of-the-market.907328/page-2#post-12336306
During the last shortage of 2013-2019, we had similar questions factoring inflation and material cost increase.
By August 2017 when 22LR pricing fell to $30/500, I thought we had reached the bottom and started this tracking thread -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...ammo-for-sale-under-30-for-500-rounds.825048/
Then by June 2019 22LR pricing fell below $20/500 and I started $15-$20/500 shipped thread -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/22lr-for-less-than-15-20-500-shipped.853059/
With current shortage cycle, many members thought/claimed $50/500 was the new bottom factoring Covid/inflation/material cost/supply chain issues and urged others to stock up while I suggested to wait unless you had to buy. Well, we just broke through below $40/500 -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...t-shipped-pricing.902560/page-6#post-12335793
And my sentiment is that 22LR prices hovering slightly above $40/500 shipped may have been protracted by those who were buying/stocking up thinking this is the new bottom yet we are starting to see signs of pricing falling further (CCI SV for $3.79/50 and Browning for $3.77/50 are good indicators).
As news of 22LR pricing below $40/500 spreads with Walmart continuing to sell Federal AutoMatch for $21/325 ($33/500) now going on for some time now, people may stop buying at higher $40/500+ pricing which will result in vendors lowering prices below $40/500 to move inventory which will result in prices falling towards $30/500 likely with open market competition.
How low will 22LR prices fall for current shortage cycle? That depends on what current wholesale production cost is and how much profit margins are added by the vendors. If 22LR buying demand falls (And I believe it will short-term), then vendors will continue to lower their profit margins to move inventory to extract capital for additional inventory purchase at lower cost. If buying demand falls significantly, we could see significant price drop within a short period of time towards $30/500.
Can we go down to $30/500 this time around? With last shortage, I was surprised when we fell below $30/500 then shocked as prices fell down to $15-$20/500. I think many are surprised we went below $40/500 but
Walmart is ALREADY AT $33/500 with Federal AutoMatch ... Yes, think about that and let that sink in that Walmart is selling Federal AM for $21/325 and making profit.
So I think $30/500 is the new bottom barrier I will be monitoring and would restock if prices fell below $30/500 or around there if bottom forms there.
And if prices don't fall below $30/500? We will find out in time and I would restock at lowest pricing I see.
Yes, for the moment, 22LR price trend is falling.