You will notice the case having less blowby on it as the pressure increases. That will be a hint.
If the cases are sticky in the chambers, you can have high pressure, but it could be rough or cruddy chambers as well, or a carbon ring from shooting a lot of specials without cleaning.
Even the primers will lie to you from time to time. Good news is they will more likely show high pressure when the pressure is OK vs showing low pressure when it is not.
You can shoot factory loads and measure the case head for expansion. That will give you something to go by on your reloads. Trouble is this is a fine measurement, and easily misleading. With .38 Spl there will be high pressure long before you see any excess case head expansion. It works better with rifle loads/pressures. With full load .357 it might be helpful, but I have never tried it with pistol rounds.
Cases and primers only give us hints, they are not 100% reliable.
Cases split when they wear out. Hot loads will wear them out faster, but case splits in and of themselves mean nothing. (Unless you managed to split all your new brass the first firing *ouch*)