Ammo shortage?

[RH822]

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/news/local/17014131.htm

I've seen the price increase, but not the shortage...yet

RH

 

[Reddbecca]

Backorders because of all the ammunition being used by the military? How exactly are JHPs being delayed by increased orders of FMJs?

 

[RH822]

Reddbecca

Backorders because of all the ammunition being used by the military? How exactly are JHPs being delayed by increased orders of FMJs?

I guess they are reducing JHP production to accommodate FMJ production.

RH

 

[Tommygunn]

Backorders because of all the ammunition being used by the military? How exactly are JHPs being delayed by increased orders of FMJs?

Well, if they can only make so many per week, the might have to stop making JHPs in order to make ball ammo. Just my 2 cent guess .... I ain't sayin' it's true.

 

[KINGMAX]

How about the price of lead

Does the rising price of lead have anything to do with it?

 

[hotpig]

I'm a dealer that is just now receiving part of my August order. Anyone that says there is not a shortage is just blowing smoke.

 

[DMK]

Increased usage by the military and law enforcement, as well as a number of foreign manufacturers ceasing U.S. sales, has contributed to the backlog, which is “the worst shortage Kiesler’s has seen in its 35 years of being in business,” according to a copy of the letter obtained by The Journal Gazette.

What's that about? What foreign manufacturers have stopped US sales?

 

[nhhillbilly]

October Order

I ordered my department ammo in October and was informed Friday March 29, I can expect it at the end of June. I ordered my 2008 order then also. Price more then doubled.

 

[Bailey Guns]

What's that about? What foreign manufacturers have stopped US sales?

PMC for one. But I understand they're coming back.

I received an email from a supplier that he forwarded to me from Federal (ATK). The email said to remove XM193 (5.56mm) and XM762D (7.62x51) military style ammo from their catalogs as ATK cannot meet demand and will not be supplying any for at least the rest of calendar year 2007.

 

[Mannlicher]

The prudent gun owner stocked up two years ago.........

 

[Car Knocker]

The recent history of the munitions industrial base has been one of consolidation, aging and, in the view of many, gradual decline. The period from the end of the Cold War to present saw a 68 percent reduction in the overall capacity of the munitions industrial base. The number of government-owned ammunition facilities shrank from 28 to around 13, with a corresponding reduction in production lines from 270 to 73 and in production personnel from 19,000 to 7,000. The number of privately-operated facilities fell from 163 to 69. At the time, this reduction appeared warranted in light of the end of the Cold War and the corresponding decline in defense budgets.

However, Lake City is an aging facility, badly in need of additional investment in modern equipment.2 For example, the 5.56mm Small Caliber Ammunition Modernization (SCAMP) production lines have shown the ability to rapidly increase production limited only by the availability of raw materials and the design capacity of the equipment. However, the SCAMP lines are run by antiquated computer systems that should be upgraded. Lake City is required to rely on a dwindling number of supporting manufacturers. The situation in the sector - and for the U.S. military - would have been far worse had not Alliant Techsystems, the company that has the contract to operate Lake City, taken steps a few years ago to acquire the near-bankrupt sole U.S. manufacturer of ammunition links and move their production capability to Lake City.

The reduction in the munitions industrial base was justified on several grounds. First, a smaller post- Cold War military had a reduced requirement for munitions. In 1991, there existed large munitions stockpiles left over from the Cold War. Second, the defense industrial base needed to apply the principles of supply- chain management, prevalent in the commercial world, which emphasized lean manufacturing and just- in-time delivery. Third, it was assumed that future regional conflicts would be relatively short, with a breathing space before the next such conflict, allowing time to replenish military stocks. As a result, replenishment times for preferred munitions of two and three years did not appear to planners as posing a significant strategic risk. Fourth, the aforementioned strategic pause provided an opportunity to move from Cold War weapons systems and their associated production facilities to transformational capabilities that required new production facilities. Despite the absence of empirical evidence, it was often assumed that production rates could be rapidly increased in the event of a national emergency.

http://www.army.mil/professionalwriting/volumes/volume3/january_2005/1_05_2.html

The protracted conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and heightened combat training with live ammunition have left the military short of small-caliber bullets. To offset the squeeze, the Army is taking unusual stopgap measures such as buying ammunition from Britain and Israel. It is also working to increase domestic production.

Alliant aims to boost production to 1.5 billion rounds a year, but it is not expected to reach that target for another year. In the meantime, the Army has turned to alternate suppliers. In June, it bought about 130 million rounds from Britain's stockpile. In December, it awarded contracts to Israeli Military Industries Ltd., based in Ramat Hasharon, and Winchester Ammunition, a unit of Conn.-based Olin Corp., to produce 70 million rounds each of 5.56mm and 7.62mm ammunition.

The military will begin moving away from those temporary suppliers next year when it expects to hire a second small ammunition maker to provide 300 million rounds a year on a long-term basis to supplement output at the Lake City plant in Independence, Mo. Alliant is expected to face competition for the contract from Falls Church-based General Dynamics, which already makes large-caliber ammunition.

Alliant Techsystems, based in Edina, Minn., has tripled the workforce at the Lake City bullet plant in the past four years to 1,950 workers, from about 650, and is still hiring. The company pulled machines out of storage and spent millions updating the technology to reach production of 1.2 billion rounds a year, up from 350 million in 2000, company spokesman D. Bryce Hallowell said.

Israeli Military Industries said the ammunition will be manufactured in Israel but the raw materials, including propellants, projectiles and primers, come from U.S. sources.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A4044-2004Jul21?language=printer

 

[22-rimfire]

Price increases have a way of decreasing demand. I believe there is a shortage. As the manufactures catch up, the more popular ammunition calibers will become more plentiful. I look forward to the day when PMC is back producing good ammo. I don't want to feel that I have to stockpile ammunition or feel that if I don't buy this week the price will be higher next week.

 

[heypete]

Hmm...considering that the government's Lake City Army Ammunition Plant makes all the military's small arms ammo (LC's owned by the government but run by Federal/ATK, hence XM193/XM855 ammo coming in Federal boxes), I can't imagine that military production would have any effect whatsoever on civilian production, even when made by the same company.

The only reason I could see military ammo trumping the production of civilian ammo would be in a WWII-type situation where metals like copper and steel are rationed, and the lion's share goes to military production. Prices for metals are up, but hardly to that degree.

Even if ATK was using it's civilian plants to make ammo for the military, there's how many ammo companies? Winchester, Remington, CCI, and others would be glad to steal some of Federal's business away.

Also, the military uses .308, .223, and 9mm in its small arms. Even if Federal were to reallocate their civilian production on those lines to military production, their .40, .45, .30-06, and other lines would be unaffected.

Considering my local gun shops and online stores are able to keep well-stocked with various ammo (made by Federal and others), I don't think there's any real issue in terms of military production trumping civilian production.

If anything, it's because of the following reasons (but certainly not limited to them):
a. Increased global demand for metals like copper, brass, steel, lead, etc.
b. Increase in prices for such metals due to increased global demand.
c. Increasing number of people getting involved with the shooting sports, increasing demand.
d. Decreasing value/increasing inflation of the US Dollar compared with other global currencies like the Euro or the Pound.
e. Decreasing amount of global military surplus ammunition being imported (South African .308's almost dried up, XM193/XM855's gone up in price, etc.)

Large manufacturing companies like Federal, CCI, Speer, Remington, Winchester, and others didn't get to where they are in the market today by making crappy products or not producing enough for the market. Yes, increased demand or a reduction in supplies can create temporary shortages, but let the companies adjust their output accordingly, and they'll be cranking out more ammo than ever before.

 

[cheygriz]

After the election, the antis took over the congress. Next year, there is a good chance they will take over the White House.

When Klinton took over, there were shortages of ammo and components for a couple of years.

Many people are stocking up RIGHT NOW.

Of course, this creates shortages. But if you don't start stocking up now, next year you might be out of luck.

The Klintons got Black Talons removed from the market by threatening to cut off government contracts to Winchester.

A future anti-gun president could threaten to cut off government contracts to any company unless they stopped supplying the civilian market. Then, by executive order, ban imports.

And don't count on any help from the industry. Remember Bill Ruger!

 

[heypete]

The Klintons got Black Talons removed from the market by threatening to cut off government contracts to Winchester.

Cite? What contracts did the government even have with Winchester at the time?

The only differences between the "Black Talon" and Ranger SXT currently available are the lack of the black Lubalox coating and the lack of the "claws". Neither has any effect on the bullet's terminal ballistics.

A future anti-gun president could threaten to cut off government contracts to any company unless they stopped supplying the civilian market.

Such as who? Federal? Remington? Barrett? I suspect that Remington and Barrett make far more money on their civilian sales, and would tell the government to go get farked. Federal, I dunno...ATK makes a lot of specialized government products (ATK Thiokol makes space shuttle boosters, air bag gas generators for NASA and the auto industry, missile rocket motors of all types, etc. ATK Ammo makes cartridges for all military small arms at Lake City, as well as higher caliber 20mm, 30mm, 120mm, and others for all sorts of various weapons systems.), so they might be harder to convince, but remember that ATK owns Federal, CCI, Speer, RCBS, Ramline, and a whole bunch of other civilian gun-related companies, and they could easily spin these off as a subsidiary rather than caving.

And don't count on any help from the industry. Remember Bill Ruger!

Absolutely. But do you think that Ruger would be supportive of HR 1022? Remember that the Mini-14 and 10/22s in many configurations would be banned. Remington now offers their "tactical" line of rifles on their civilian website after L'Affaire Zumbo. More companies are making ARs than ever before. More AK types are being made/imported than ever before.

When California attempted to pass a law requiring serialized ammo, the ammo companies, NSSF, and others got together with the legislators to explain the inner workings of an ammo plant and how it was impossible to serialize ammo, remain affordable, and supply their customers. They even produced videos showing the interior of an ammo plant and the various production lines.

The first AWB was a bit of a shake-up, and L'Affaire Zumbo was a major shake-up for the industry, legislators, and lobby groups like NRA-ILA. I suspect that if anything were to be seriously proposed, there would be a massive outpouring of opposition from citizens, manufacturers, and lobby groups.

I think you may be a little over-cautious. Yes, stocking up on supplies is useful in general, but one must be logical about it -- why bother buying 20 stripped AR lowers, or 50,000 rounds of ammo if you can't afford it nor need it? Be practical and reasonable, folks.

 

[thexrayboy]

Ammo is a commodity, just like gas and oil and anything else. It responds to supply and demand and the prices and availability also respond to perceptions of supply and demand. It is possible that some out of country sources are being squeezed off by antis in the government. Or it is possible that many of our out of country sources simply have no excess stock at the moment they are willing to sell to brokers in America. I am sure that activity in the Middle East is a factor in the story. I would not be at all surprised if
some of our wealthy allies such as Saudi Arabia was purchasing vast quantities of ammo under the table to supply jihadists. The purchase of
Russian supply for our allies in the sandbox is also a factor. Competition for material with India and China has to be a huge factor also. China in particular is growing in the manufacturing arena by leaps and bounds. All this
puts a strain on the source of raw material, material that while not exactly drying up like oil is getting harder to mine at a cheap price.

Since 9/11 we have probably had many thousands of new shooters take up the sport, many never make their presence known outside the economic arena of buying and using ammo. More people want ammo, less ammo to go around.
This is probably a short term event. In few months to a few years we will probably see an increase in supply, demand is high and so suppliers will likely increase production to satisfy it. That is the free market economy. It just takes some time for new capacity to be brought on line. Prices however may never fall. They have learned we will pay 2 bits a round for something that was a dime 2 years ago. They will not want to drop the price.

If however over the next few years the number of ammo makers continues to decline and supply continues to become more scarce I would be more willing
to entertain the government conspiracy theories. I don't currently believe
Big Brother is actually trying to limit the ammo available to us. I wouldn't put it past them to try to though.

 

[BADUNAME13]

Buy what's cheap and stack it deep.

I am running an AK47 and I'm still running $75-$80 cases.

I have cases of .308 that cost me ~$21 per battlepack.

I just ordered 60,000+ 5.45x39 for $119 per 1080.
I'll be shooting cheap when you 'Nonstockers' are searching for a deal.

Your call.

 

[heypete]

If however over the next few years the number of ammo makers continues to decline and supply continues to become more scarce I would be more willing to entertain the government conspiracy theories.

What do you mean "continues to decline"? If anything, I'm under the impression that ammo makers are increasing in number, and component makers are also increasing in number. Starline makes all sorts of brass, innumerable small companies make bullets (both lead, plated, jacketed, and solids), and there are numerous powder-making companies (though the consolidation of IMR, Winchester, and Hodgdon powder all under Hodgdon ownership troubles me, as does most consolidation...but if that's the market, so be it).

Companies like Miwall and Ultramax commercially remanufacture ammo, and reloading is increasing in popularity. All the major ammo companies are releasing new lines of products (Federal's HST JHP, Hornady's Lever Evolution, CCI's Blazer Brass and Independence lines, and all sorts of others) and increasing their production.

Perhaps my perceptions are wrong, and the number of ammo companies are decreasing. Does anyone have any confirmed information on this topic? I'd love to know for sure.

 

[hotpig]

Just a couple of things for clarification.

Ranger T-Series does still have the Talons and is designed a little different than the Black Talon.


It will take about 18 months for the manufacturers to get additional machines in production. They have their resources working on military contracts. This leaves very little room for them to also make civilian ammo.

This has already caused a shortage in itself. Couple that with panic buying of ammo and a overall increase in shooters and we have a problem.

Production should be increased in 2008. This should level out the prices and things should start looking better.

Also keep in mind that this is a fluid situation and there are a lot of factors that could change things.

 

[thedpp]

Could it be that everyone is placing orders for 30,000+ rounds because they are worried about a shortage but that it self is creating the shortage

 

[heypete]

They have their resources working on military contracts.

I'm curious what manufacturers you're referring to. To the best of my knowledge, the only US company that makes small arms ammo for the military is Federal, and they make them in the army's Lake City plant, which is entirely different from Federal's other production lines. They also use different (thicker) brass, primers, and bullets (SS109) than their civilian offerings like American Eagle, so I don't really see Federal's civilian production lines making military ammo anytime soon.

I'm still not entirely sure how the production of military ammo affects civilian ammo production (other than both of them competing for the same raw materials). Nor am I certain what manufacturers other than Federal are involved with producing ammo for military contracts.

Even with these "shortages", Federal American Eagle .223 and all sorts of other Federal .223 offerings are available at a modest price in local retailers, gun shops, and online. If anyone would have to cut civilian production for military contracts, it'd be Federal, but I don't believe they're doing that at this time.

f anyone has actual information that can be confirmed, I'd love to hear it and would gladly stand corrected. I just dislike hearing all sorts of conspiracy theories and rumors whenever guns and ammo are involved. Sort of like how Wolf 7.62x39mm ammo was almost completely unavailable for a few months a few years ago...nobody really said why, rumors abounded, and a few months later it came back on the market again. Such is the market, I suppose.

 

[skeeter1]

The prudent gun owner stocked up two years ago...

Well, that's sort of what I did, but not intentionally. When I found some on sale, I'd pick up a couple of boxes. From .22LR up to 12-gauge, I have a few thousand rounds.

As for lead prices, I don't know. I reload .38Spl, and checked my two usual suppliers of bullets (I like Hornady XTPs best) and they're both available and not all that expensive, IMHO.

 

[hotpig]

Living in shadows of Winchester gives me a little insight. Olin Corp is the largest employer in my town/area. I do not work for them but many of my friends and family do. Hanley Industries plant (Alcan to the old timers)is less than a mile from me. Hanley does 100% government contract work.

Not sure were you got the impression that LC was the sole provider of the US Military. A quick google should bring up some military contracts awarded to Winchester. Don't forget there is also a world market that uses American ammo. NATO Contracts bring a lot of work into my area. There are also other non NATO countries that buy ammo here.

There is only a limited amount of machinery and people from all of the companies. If a large amount of the people and machines are scheduled to fill contracts other production is going to slow. It does not matter if the calibers or components are different than the military. There is not enough people working on the civilian components or ammo to keep up with demand. More people can be hired but they need the machinery to work with.

I think the real problem is this country has let too much of our manufacturing and production industry move out of the US. It is manifesting itself right now with small arms ammo. What would we do if we needed a lot of weapons and other military hardware fast. I guess we could buy it from China or Russia .

 

[wagoneer1019]

bump

 

[wagoneer1019]

we saw it coming a yeat ago