Ammunition analytics...

[sota]

(I kind of thought this thread should be in the Ammunition section, but it didn't seem to fit. Mods, please move if you think it does.)

I'd like to inquire of the more well educated members (re: older. ) with regards to, how much ammunition is too much. Being of an engineering background, I've created a spreadsheet that tracks the ins and outs of my ammo consumption, and I've been asking it questions as of late. Specifically, I've been figuring out how much I shoot, and how long my current supply will last, based on past consumption. Knowing this, I can't seem to come up with a decent answer to the questions of:
How much is enough?
How much is too much?

To provide some clarity, here is the current result:

Caliber    Remaining    Annual Use    Supply (Years)
9mm            8,800          2497     3.52
.22LR         15,210          3867     3.93
.45ACP         3,599           376     9.57
12GA           1,175           402     2.92
.223/5.56      5,572           275    20.24
.38s/.357m     1,602           869     1.84

The .223/5.56 listing is skewed and i'm working on how to solve that.
.45ACP i'm actually going to be shooting more of for awhile, so that figure will also be skewed.
9mm is my go-to primary practice and carry round.
.22LR is getting more rotation in as i'm shooting some just plain fun guns chambered in that caliber.

So my question would be, what is the general consensus of a "good" supply to have in terms of years? I recognize the highly subjective nature of the question, which is why i'm struggling to come up with a satisfactory answer.

Thanks!

 

[suemarkp]

There are really a lot of answers and it depends on why you stockpile. Ammo has a very long shelf life, so there aren't many negatives to stockpiling other than space. Are you looking for the best price, so you buy a lot when its cheap and store it? What are the ramifications of running out? Baring a major shortage again, you may be able to find what you want if you're wiling to pay for it and have a week or two to wait for it to be shipped to you. What type of ammo do you want -- just something to shoot (plink) with, or something particular? If you want something specific, I'd buy a lot of it as you never know when production could stop.

On the demand side, what drives your shooting? Will it stay the same, increase, or decrease in the near future (and the answer could be different by caliber)? Will there be some new ammo you want that would require you replace something existing (e.g. I just picked up some 45gr rimfire because I like the heavier bullet. I got rid of some other to make room for it).

How long before you stop shooting, or you pass from old age? Will some family member have to deal with divesting of the stockpile? Are you in a place that makes getting rid of ammo difficult (e.g. California with ammo sales to be through dealers)? Could shooting some ammo become problematic (e.g. restrictions on firing lead ammo)?

I don't shoot much and my stock pile hasn't changed much in 15 years. I plan to shoot more in retirement and that will get rid of some of it. I have 2 tall 50 cal cans of shotgun ammo, 1 50 cal can of linked 50 BMG, 3 regular 50 caliber cans of rifle ammo, 3 30 caliber cans of handgun ammo, and 3 30 caliber cans of rimfire ammo. And 1 50 caliber can of things to shoot soon to get rid of.

 

[cfullgraf]

A big unknown in your equation is "How available will ammunition and reloading components be in the near and far future".

You should have a pretty good idea on November 9.

 

[denton]

There is no "right" answer to the question.

My philosophy is that your tastes in handloads will change over time, so it's best to stock components. I usually keep a few dozen rounds for big game rifles, a few hundred rounds for 223/5.56, and several hundred rounds for handguns. But I have components for a few thousand rounds of the higher consumption items, assuming I can recover brass.

Before the great 22LR shortage, I stocked up with several thousand rounds. During the shortage, I kept an eye open for more, and bought when a decent deal came along. Without extra effort, I ended up with more 22LR on hand than when the shortage started, and that's sharing with my SIL and grandkids.

Even when there is a shortage, there are occasional supplies. I probably have more reloading supplies than I should have bought, even for a two year drought.

 

[bannockburn]

sota

I have been stockpiling ammo for many years. Always bought it for what was a good price at the time or if I found it on sale. I'm fairly well set even with all of the various ammo shortages going on the past few years. Probably don't shoot as much .22LR as I use to but it seems to be coming back into the market so I'm not to concerned about that. Mainly I try to keep my mainstream pistol calibers (9mm. and .45 ACP), at around 4,000 to 5,000 rounds, my .22LR at about 15,000, and my .223 and 7.62x39 at about 5,000 to 6,000 rounds each. Still have plenty of 12 gauge and 20 gauge shotshells on hand though primarily for home defense these days as I don't do much hunting or trap shooting anymore.

 

[sota]

Thanks for all the replies; I'll try and fill in some details from the questions and comments made.

I recognize there can be no absolute "right" answer; I guess I'm just trying to feel out where I am, where others are and why, and determine where I should be.
I would ideally like to shoot more and become more skilled at the craft, but as with so many things the spirit is willing but the realities of life are against it. I do what I can, when I can.

Age: early 40s, and I don't plan on stopping shooting until i'm either dead or blind... and I don't think even blindness will stop me

Specific ammo types: I'm going to take that as defensive ammo. While I don't have a massive supply, I have more than enough to shoot at bad people doing bad things. All of my defensive handguns have been tested to my satisfaction with my currently selected defensive loads. The shotgun is, a pump shotgun; it'll shot whatever I feed it. I enjoy busting clays on a monthly basis or so, but it's not a high priority. The rifles are getting vetted hopefully before the end of the month (new range, new range membership, has outdoor rifle capabilities out to 100 yards currently, and I plan on spending a bunch of time testing what have with what I have.)

I'd personally prefer to be able to weather any hopefully short term shortages in the market, ala 2012, and not be caught flatfooted when I decided I wanted in on the .22lr game. I'm especially keen on that for .22lr and 9mm as the former is what my son will be shooting for quite a while, and the latter is my go-to defensive caliber. I think that's reflected in the current numbers. I shoot .38special and .357magnum more as a hobby/fun round through my revolvers, but I also possess a couple rifles that shoot the same calibers. The hobby/fun aspect also translates to .45ACP for me, although I do possess a quantity of defensive for all the of the recently listed calibers as well. I'm not a hunter and while I don't frankly see my self ever getting into hunting, what the future presents for necessity is always an unknown.

My wife knows all my stuff goes to the kid (as she's not into shooting,) so I'm not really concerned with divestiture. To be quite frank, if i'm dead I don't really think I'll care what the family has to do with my stuff... I'M DEAD!

cfullgraf: I see that great unknown as well; hence my dilemma as to what is enough, what is too much, and what is just down right silly. I somewhat feel like i'm approaching the second in some aspects, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that what is "enough" now isn't going to be "enough" later.

As for my driving force(s) for shooting: I want to be prepared to use the tools on hand as effectively as I can if needed. I also want to be able to enjoy shooting for as long as possible, while minimizing the financial concerns. Speaking of financial, procurement at this time isn't a financial hardship, as i've made it a point to keep a dedicated financial reserve to capitalize on good deals when they come along.