Best 10-20 year pure investment

[MatthewVanitas]

In 1931 a Colt 1911 cost $45.00. Such a gun in 97% condition is up for sale on GunsAmerica this week for $3,200. Not bad, eh? But wait...

$45, invested 75 years, compounded anually:


@ 5% = $1,747
@ 8% = $14,454
@ 10% = $57,235



*shrug*

 

[logical]

I don't want to rain on your parade, but I think you're going about it all wrong. You seem to admit and acknowledge that guns aren't a sound investment and you probably won't make as much over 10-20 years as you did with an index fund. That means its just play money, don't speculate on what will be worth the most just buy some guns you like. When you're tired of them in 10-20 years you can sell them. Maybe you'll make a profit, maybe you won't, you won't care. Past that if you still wanted to buy guns for a profit I'd consider http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=SWHC

I agree...it is just play money. I'll just buy what I like with a little consideration for potential future value. I AM goiung to actually do this. I am talking to two FFL's to get a reasonable transfer fee if I do 20-30 purchases in the next year or so.

 

[Radagast]

Buy the standard catalogue of S&W, Supica & Nahas.
Join the Smith & Wesson forum.
Pick an area of their product that interests you and go from there.
There haven't been any more registered magnums for sixty years. That would be my choice.

 

[AK-74me]

NYX - the New York Stock Exchange.

Remember you heard it here first

Current Price $84.30 share

Crammer picked that as his growth pick of the year on his show back in Jan., also if I am not mistaken it was around $100 at the time.

 

[Justin]

Ok, normally when these threads come up, my first twitching-eye, knee-jerk reaction is to tell the poster that guns aren't a good investment (they aren't) and that you're better off with even just a plain old index fund.

HOWEVER, since you stated you've already got those bases covered, and you're just looking to invest purely in guns with what amounts to fun money, there are a few that you won't lose money on, and may even appreciate (if you don't pay too much attention to inflation.)

I guess I'd look into the following categories:
Stuff people can't get.
Oddball stuff they don't make any more.
Stuff with a high nostalgia factor.
Stuff with a high price tag that not many can afford.

Look into Machine guns first. A few months back, someone posted a link to a website that had (very, very) rough graphs showing what particular models were being bought and sold for. I can't find the link at the moment, but you might want to poke around in the archives.

I'd look at Colt DA revolvers, as well as Colt SAA's from the 1980's or earlier. Winchester lever-actions should be a consideration as well, but it's a bit of a gamble (like any of this.)

High-end clay shotguns will hold their value, but you should research whether or not they'll go up in value. Ditto for safari double-rifles.

A lot of WWII stuff tends to appreciate in value, but you need to research it pretty heavily and go into it with your eyes open. The market for war-era 1911's, Garands, Liberators, and other guns is pretty well staked out, and there are a lot of people who've been buying, selling, and trading in that market for years who obsess over date stamps, serial numbers and proof marks.

Other than that, look into weird stuff that's no longer made; the Dardick pistol (as well as ammunition) or the Gyrojet. Check into other rare stuff that most people haven't even heard of.

In the end, it's all going to be a gamble, and unlikely to appreciate at the same level as even an index fund. Also, this post is just my opinion, posted on the internet. If you follow the information it contains and end up losing a ton of money as a result, it's your fault, not mine.

 

[kd7nqb]

I would say NFA would be the best and milsurps seem to be a good idea. Hell I would be tempted to take a small portion of what you want to spend and dump it into hi-cap magazines for the next AWB.

 

[5shot]

Hello Logical,
In a similar position myself, I simply want to enjoy my hobby. A few I like are High Standards- 101 thru 106 models, supermatics, Citations and Trophys
Smith & Wessons- Modell 18 to 18-4
Colt Woodsman Match Targets- Second series
Browning-BAR 22 and BPR 22
Browning Hi Powers- T series
Browning- Challengers, Nomads abd Medalist models
Colt - Troopers [ not the mark models]
The search for these keep my interest . Always looking for 98% + examples with the original box if possible. There are still alot of these around yet prices seem to be on the incline. I simply enjoy the hunt. Your interests may be different.

 

[BigG]

Colt SAAs or Colts in general.

 

[BADUNAME13]

MatthewVanitas:

My friend Burt (See my earlier post) was buying them around 2000 for $400-$500... now do those #'s for 7 years of return...

His purchases for that time period include a MINT transition model 1911-1911A1 WITH serialised holster, mag pouch, and mags. (I believe the belt is not serialised to the gun but could be wrong.)

 

[darkknight]

I would say buy a .500 S&W or a .460 S&W if these guns dont live long on the market thier will probably be an interest in them somewhere. If you could find a a NIB colt delta elite you may find somebody who will want one or a bren ten. I believe most guns have gone up in value slightly the longer they remain on the market. What about a Nagant revlover i ve seen them sold for 85 bucks so they should be worth more later buy 2 and sell one later. wat about a mak those will probably dry up sometime.

 

[Danus ex]

In 1931 a Colt 1911 cost $45.00. Such a gun in 97% condition is up for sale on GunsAmerica this week for $3,200. Not bad, eh? But wait...

$45, invested 75 years, compounded anually:


@ 5% = $1,747
@ 8% = $14,454
@ 10% = $57,235

*shrug*

Let's explore this example further. 45.00 1931 dollars = 525.77 2006 dollars. Assuming the seller can get 3000.00 2006/7 dollars for it, this pistol's value has multiplied 5.7 times in about 76 years. As you show, this return gets hosed by the 8% and 10% investment returns.

It gets worse. It's unlikely that the seller is the original purchaser--the seller is probably a collector who purchased the pistol from another collector only a few years ago. Assuming the current seller was the original buyer (or bought the pistol for whatever sum 45 1931 dollars equaled when they purchased it) there are still a ton of other questions to ask and factors to contend with. Did the seller get 76 years of good service out of the firearm? (That service is why people buy firearms, and is obviously part of the return on investment.) What would 76 years of shooting have done to the pistol's value? Did the seller buy the pistol with the intent to invest; if so, how did he/she know the gun would be legal or worth anything in the future? Would the buyer have guessed that .45ACP would still be with us in 2007? Did the buyer have a crystal ball that showed him/her the reputation (a reputation that undoubtedly drives the gun's value) 1911's would have in the future? We were supposed to be in flying cars by now.

Ultimately, I think you're better off buying and shooting guns you like. If any of them serve you faithfully and turn out to be worth significantly more than their equivalent purchase price in future dollars, then you'll have made a good firearms investment.

 

[Hawk]

The OP stated that it should be something fun to shoot, no engraved gold plated safe queens. Hence, we avoid anything that derives significant value from the terms "unfired" or "unturned". They can be unfired or unturned, they just can't have a slug of their value tied up in their non-use.

The ones I think of with that criteria:
NFA
H&K P7s - all variations except P7M7.
Original L.C. Smiths, Parkers and similar.
Double rifles.
Voere VEC, Blaser F3, R93

All are fun to shoot.

Many decades ago, I read an automotive article that stuck with me regarding the difference between "classic" cars and "antique" cars: A "Classic" car had to be one that people wanted when it was new.

A Pinto will eventually be an antique, but it will never be a classic.
A '53 Benz was a classic the day it rolled off the showroom floor.

You want the firearms equivalent of a Benz gull-wing, Cord, Dusenberg, that sort of thing - a classic.

I don't know where a Cooper Scout would fall - it was desirable but I don't believe it enjoyed brisk sales. Dakota is another I'm not sure about.

 

[skeeter1]

Don't invest in firearms

Buy guns for fun, not to make money.

I have one (and only one) handgun that went from $119 that I paid for it in 1972 to around ~$1K today. It's fairly rare, but as one member here pointed out to me, that's only about 7%/yr. If you could have gotten a Winchester Model 21 Grand American back in the 60's, that would have been a nice nest egg 40 years later. Today they're going for $60K+.

In general, firearms aren't great investments. They're meant to have fun with.

 

[Mark Whiteman]

One word: Plastics.

 

[delta53]

Gun Parts

I would invest in gun parts hard to find barrels such as 1918BAR early browning MG parts parts kits ect grease them up and wait you could keep them in your barn nobody would even think to steel them unless they were real sharp they would look like junk

 

[answerguy]

A gun I would suggest is one I can't think of the name of. It's that 'evil' small caliber pistol the media was ranting about a few years ago. Small caliber and high velocity. I think that one will go up in value.

Yeah that's the one:

 

[Mark Whiteman]

FN 5.7x28?

 

[earplug]

Trends

Twenty years ago Win M-12 were hot. Now there not. Browning Superpose, Lugers, what ever.
In the mid 1970's any magnum revolver was hot.
M1A and AR clones may be hot or not.
Now compact 9's may be hot. Its a crap shoot to predict what will be a good investment in firearms 10-20 years in the future.
And when you need the money you have invested in 3-5K or more weapon there are not that many buyers.
Its easy to get caught buying retail and selling wholesale.
I bought and held some weapons during the late 70's thinking they were better then cash during the high inflation period. Broke better then even when I sold them, but it was not easy to make then turn into cash if they were out of fashion.
I would have been better off with buying gold or silver.
Strorage and tranportation of firearms is a hassle.

 

[Mark Whiteman]

Fashions come and fashions go, but real estate out the edge of town virtually always goes up.