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Fall recall appears to be certain
Circus of scenarios hits a critical point
Robert Salladay, Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writers
Tuesday, July 22, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/07/22/MN6604.DTL
Sacramento -- The recall campaign against Gov. Gray Davis is producing a dizzying carnival of legal and political scenarios that will reach a critical point this week as a special election on whether to oust the Democratic governor appears certain to be declared for this fall.
Democrats face the difficult task of holding rogue members of their own party from running on a recall ballot. At the same time, third-party candidates, independents and Republicans could be forced to make rapid-fire decisions this week on leaping into a quick and inevitably nasty campaign.
Under a quirk in California election law, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante could give these replacement candidates only a few days, perhaps just 24 hours, to file their paperwork for governor. Recall supporters warned Davis challengers Monday to be prepared to move quickly or be left flat-footed.
"Right now, judging from today, it's a circus of rumor, innuendo and strategizing from all sides," said Dave Gilliard, director of Rescue California, the most prominent recall committee.
Meanwhile, the governor's allies made an 11th-hour legal attempt Monday to block certification of the recall.
Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall asked an appeals court to reverse a lower court ruling and issue a temporary restraining order to stop Secretary of State Kevin Shelley from certifying the recall until after a hearing on the group's allegations of illegal signature-gathering.
Lawyers for the pro-Davis group contend that the Republican-led drive used petition circulators who were not properly registered to vote in California, among other illegalities.
Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger returns this week from a worldwide tour promoting "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines," and must decide on his potential candidacy amid the wild maneuvering. His decision could dramatically alter the political landscape.
SCRAMBLING FOR THE BALLOT BOX
Schwarzenegger's return to California coincides with a scheduled announcement this week by Shelley about whether recall organizers have reached their goal of 900,000 valid signatures. That could force an election as soon as Sept. 30.
The recall ballot would consist of two questions for voters: Should Davis be recalled from office? And who should replace him if he is recalled.
But state law covering recalls has produced an intriguing set of loopholes that Davis supporters could use to thwart the recall or delay it until the March 2 presidential primary. A March election is considered more favorable to Davis, because more voters are expected to participate.
One scenario has Bustamante scheduling an election so quickly it would give candidates only a day to file their paperwork. The law requires candidates to register at least 59 days before the recall election, but requires Bustamante to set an election date 60 to 80 days from Shelley's announcement.
Gilliard said he informed strategists for Schwarzenegger, financier Bill Simon, Rep. Darrell Issa of San Diego, and state Sen. Tom McClintock of Santa Barbara County that they should be prepared to quickly gather the 65 signatures and $3,500 needed to get on the ballot.
In an interview, Bustamante said he is reviewing the entire elections calendar and hasn't made a decision on when he might call the election. Either way, he said, candidates won't be caught off guard.
"All of these folks have very sophisticated political operations," Bustamante said. "I don't think you are going to catch anybody, with all the newspaper accounts and media attention, flat-footed on anything at this point."
'IF APPROPRIATE'
Legal scholars and politicians are picking over the state's poorly written and confusing law on recall elections for other loopholes, however. Another scenario has Bustamante blocking anyone from running against Davis on a recall ballot, since the law says replacement candidates are allowed "if appropriate. " Under the law, Bustamante decides whether it's appropriate.
Some legal experts said these two words were added to the law because some officials, such as judges, would be replaced through appointment, not an election. It would not be "appropriate" for Bustamante to allow for the elected replacement of judicial candidates.
The matter is under review by Shelley's office, and could be the source of a last-minute lawsuit to slow or sabotage the recall. If there are no replacement candidates on the ballot, and Davis is recalled, then Bustamante would replace him.
"I have already stated that I don't think there is that kind of option," Bustamante said. "Clearly, the duties of the lieutenant governor and succession are in the Constitution and it would take constitutional scholars to give that kind of advice and counsel."
Rick Hasen, an election law expert and professor at Loyola Law School, said an increasing number of strategists are using election law as part of a political strategy.
"The problem here is we have a disastrous set of recall statutes that have never been tested. They are just a mess," said Hasen, who blamed voters who approved election-related ballot measures and the Legislature. "The courts are going to have to sort these things out."
All of these factors are playing into candidates' decisions on whether to challenge Davis on a recall ballot.
Schwarzenegger's wife, journalist Maria Shriver, is reportedly against his running for governor. There is a fear that he could be a target for tabloid sleaze and even assassination because he is married to a member of the Kennedy clan and is a world-famous actor.
"Arnold is coming home to see what the situation is, and he's very interested in running for governor," said George Gorton, his political consultant, who did not comment on Shriver. "But he has to determine when, and if, this is going to happen."
With questions about possible legal maneuvers -- and when Bustamante might schedule an election -- "there's substantial roadblocks in the way," said Gorton. "And when he decides they're gone, his main consideration is his family."
THE SCHWARZENEGGER FACTOR
Two other prominent Republicans, both of whom attend the same church with Schwarzenegger, have decisions to make as well. Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and financier Bill Simon each lost elections last year after being effectively sabotaged by Davis. They may face him again on the same ballot.
Riordan -- who topped a Field Poll last week on possible challengers -- said Schwarzenegger's decision will be paramount to his own political future.
"If Arnold is going to run, I'll not even consider running. If he doesn't, I will then have to try to make a decision," Riordan said. "I think decisions have to be made this week. Time is running out. You've got to be ready right away."
Simon is "maintaining a schedule of political events," including delivering a speech to a Republican group in Sonoma on Thursday, said Brent Lauder, his spokesman. But with Shelley's announcement this week, "things are moving quickly . . . suddenly he could be filing. We're aware of all the deadlines."
Green Party candidate Peter Camejo said Monday he might consider dropping out of the race if Davis resigns and Bustamante replaces him before the election is certified by Shelley. He told another newspaper he'd also bow out if political pundit Arianna Huffington enters the race.
All of this maneuvering has one former Davis strategist wondering why anyone would want to become governor. Garry South said Davis won't resign and questioned the sanity of those who would jump in.
"Let's say you run and you win: what have you won?" said South. "You get no transition period. You take over a staff appointed by Gray Davis. There are seven constitutional officers who are Democratic -- all of whom can investigate you, audit you and have press conferences on the steps of the Capitol against you. The budget deficit doesn't go away. Not one more job is created. It doesn't bring the economy back. It doesn't pay back the millions you've lost in homeland security.
"Except now the gum isn't on Gray Davis' shoes -- it's on yours," he said. "The highlight of your career will be the day you are elected. It will be all downhill from there."
E-mail the writers at [email protected] and [email protected].
Circus of scenarios hits a critical point
Robert Salladay, Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writers
Tuesday, July 22, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/07/22/MN6604.DTL
Sacramento -- The recall campaign against Gov. Gray Davis is producing a dizzying carnival of legal and political scenarios that will reach a critical point this week as a special election on whether to oust the Democratic governor appears certain to be declared for this fall.
Democrats face the difficult task of holding rogue members of their own party from running on a recall ballot. At the same time, third-party candidates, independents and Republicans could be forced to make rapid-fire decisions this week on leaping into a quick and inevitably nasty campaign.
Under a quirk in California election law, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante could give these replacement candidates only a few days, perhaps just 24 hours, to file their paperwork for governor. Recall supporters warned Davis challengers Monday to be prepared to move quickly or be left flat-footed.
"Right now, judging from today, it's a circus of rumor, innuendo and strategizing from all sides," said Dave Gilliard, director of Rescue California, the most prominent recall committee.
Meanwhile, the governor's allies made an 11th-hour legal attempt Monday to block certification of the recall.
Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall asked an appeals court to reverse a lower court ruling and issue a temporary restraining order to stop Secretary of State Kevin Shelley from certifying the recall until after a hearing on the group's allegations of illegal signature-gathering.
Lawyers for the pro-Davis group contend that the Republican-led drive used petition circulators who were not properly registered to vote in California, among other illegalities.
Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger returns this week from a worldwide tour promoting "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines," and must decide on his potential candidacy amid the wild maneuvering. His decision could dramatically alter the political landscape.
SCRAMBLING FOR THE BALLOT BOX
Schwarzenegger's return to California coincides with a scheduled announcement this week by Shelley about whether recall organizers have reached their goal of 900,000 valid signatures. That could force an election as soon as Sept. 30.
The recall ballot would consist of two questions for voters: Should Davis be recalled from office? And who should replace him if he is recalled.
But state law covering recalls has produced an intriguing set of loopholes that Davis supporters could use to thwart the recall or delay it until the March 2 presidential primary. A March election is considered more favorable to Davis, because more voters are expected to participate.
One scenario has Bustamante scheduling an election so quickly it would give candidates only a day to file their paperwork. The law requires candidates to register at least 59 days before the recall election, but requires Bustamante to set an election date 60 to 80 days from Shelley's announcement.
Gilliard said he informed strategists for Schwarzenegger, financier Bill Simon, Rep. Darrell Issa of San Diego, and state Sen. Tom McClintock of Santa Barbara County that they should be prepared to quickly gather the 65 signatures and $3,500 needed to get on the ballot.
In an interview, Bustamante said he is reviewing the entire elections calendar and hasn't made a decision on when he might call the election. Either way, he said, candidates won't be caught off guard.
"All of these folks have very sophisticated political operations," Bustamante said. "I don't think you are going to catch anybody, with all the newspaper accounts and media attention, flat-footed on anything at this point."
'IF APPROPRIATE'
Legal scholars and politicians are picking over the state's poorly written and confusing law on recall elections for other loopholes, however. Another scenario has Bustamante blocking anyone from running against Davis on a recall ballot, since the law says replacement candidates are allowed "if appropriate. " Under the law, Bustamante decides whether it's appropriate.
Some legal experts said these two words were added to the law because some officials, such as judges, would be replaced through appointment, not an election. It would not be "appropriate" for Bustamante to allow for the elected replacement of judicial candidates.
The matter is under review by Shelley's office, and could be the source of a last-minute lawsuit to slow or sabotage the recall. If there are no replacement candidates on the ballot, and Davis is recalled, then Bustamante would replace him.
"I have already stated that I don't think there is that kind of option," Bustamante said. "Clearly, the duties of the lieutenant governor and succession are in the Constitution and it would take constitutional scholars to give that kind of advice and counsel."
Rick Hasen, an election law expert and professor at Loyola Law School, said an increasing number of strategists are using election law as part of a political strategy.
"The problem here is we have a disastrous set of recall statutes that have never been tested. They are just a mess," said Hasen, who blamed voters who approved election-related ballot measures and the Legislature. "The courts are going to have to sort these things out."
All of these factors are playing into candidates' decisions on whether to challenge Davis on a recall ballot.
Schwarzenegger's wife, journalist Maria Shriver, is reportedly against his running for governor. There is a fear that he could be a target for tabloid sleaze and even assassination because he is married to a member of the Kennedy clan and is a world-famous actor.
"Arnold is coming home to see what the situation is, and he's very interested in running for governor," said George Gorton, his political consultant, who did not comment on Shriver. "But he has to determine when, and if, this is going to happen."
With questions about possible legal maneuvers -- and when Bustamante might schedule an election -- "there's substantial roadblocks in the way," said Gorton. "And when he decides they're gone, his main consideration is his family."
THE SCHWARZENEGGER FACTOR
Two other prominent Republicans, both of whom attend the same church with Schwarzenegger, have decisions to make as well. Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and financier Bill Simon each lost elections last year after being effectively sabotaged by Davis. They may face him again on the same ballot.
Riordan -- who topped a Field Poll last week on possible challengers -- said Schwarzenegger's decision will be paramount to his own political future.
"If Arnold is going to run, I'll not even consider running. If he doesn't, I will then have to try to make a decision," Riordan said. "I think decisions have to be made this week. Time is running out. You've got to be ready right away."
Simon is "maintaining a schedule of political events," including delivering a speech to a Republican group in Sonoma on Thursday, said Brent Lauder, his spokesman. But with Shelley's announcement this week, "things are moving quickly . . . suddenly he could be filing. We're aware of all the deadlines."
Green Party candidate Peter Camejo said Monday he might consider dropping out of the race if Davis resigns and Bustamante replaces him before the election is certified by Shelley. He told another newspaper he'd also bow out if political pundit Arianna Huffington enters the race.
All of this maneuvering has one former Davis strategist wondering why anyone would want to become governor. Garry South said Davis won't resign and questioned the sanity of those who would jump in.
"Let's say you run and you win: what have you won?" said South. "You get no transition period. You take over a staff appointed by Gray Davis. There are seven constitutional officers who are Democratic -- all of whom can investigate you, audit you and have press conferences on the steps of the Capitol against you. The budget deficit doesn't go away. Not one more job is created. It doesn't bring the economy back. It doesn't pay back the millions you've lost in homeland security.
"Except now the gum isn't on Gray Davis' shoes -- it's on yours," he said. "The highlight of your career will be the day you are elected. It will be all downhill from there."
E-mail the writers at [email protected] and [email protected].
:banghead: