This post examines the likelihood of a proposed AWB being approved by the US senate. It does not address whether it could then pass the house or whether it would survive constitutional scrutiny by the courts.
Sen. Feinstein has stated she will once again introduce legislation to create a so called AWB. The President has called for gun control measures. Left wing media has called for gun control as have many higher profile Democratic politicians. It is abundantly clear that the gauntlet has been thrown down and we will have to fight to preserve or core rights and freedom.
Some folks here and elsewhere have made statements that seem to suggest this legislation taking effect is a done deal. I have seen some discussion of the likelihood of this bill passing but I have not seen a real thorough reasoned discussion of it. I think it would behoove us to have that discussion before declaring the sky is falling. Remember we have a separation of powers and furthermore we have bicameralism within the legislative branch.
It seems a given that Obama would happily sign anything that could get through congress. What would survive in the courts is far from certain. Thus, I’d like to focus on the likelihood of gun control making it through congress.
As we know from basic civics class we have a bicameral legislature, that is to say there are two houses, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Legislation must get a bare majority in both houses. Let’s do some congressional head counting and see how we think the vote is likely to come down.
The Senate is where Ms. Fienstein will introduce her bill so let us discuss it first. There are of course 100 US senate seats. The bill is to be introduced when the new congress comes in. Thus, we should look at the makeup of the 113th congress not the 112th. The Democrats will have 53 seats. There are two independents who are for our purposes in essence Democrats (one Liberman a long time Democrat has voiced support for the legislation). Republicans hold the remaining 45 seats. I mention these numbers because the fact is this legislation will be drafted and pushed for buy the Democratic party bosses. Its hopes also seem to live or die with the Democrats.
To win a vote the antis will need 51 votes. Can they get it. Let’s look at it. I think there will be at best a few Republican Senators that will vote to support it. We can look at that assertion in more detail later. It should also be noted that Republicans could filibuster and cloture (the procedural move to force an end below is a list of my projected votes with commentary for some and a note of the likely swing voters.
In the fight to get to 50 votes it will very likely be a party split with limited crossover. Some Senators are going to be predictably in one camp or another. Below I discuss those that are likely to make the difference in whether this measure can pass the Senate.
Sen. Feinstein has stated she will once again introduce legislation to create a so called AWB. The President has called for gun control measures. Left wing media has called for gun control as have many higher profile Democratic politicians. It is abundantly clear that the gauntlet has been thrown down and we will have to fight to preserve or core rights and freedom.
Some folks here and elsewhere have made statements that seem to suggest this legislation taking effect is a done deal. I have seen some discussion of the likelihood of this bill passing but I have not seen a real thorough reasoned discussion of it. I think it would behoove us to have that discussion before declaring the sky is falling. Remember we have a separation of powers and furthermore we have bicameralism within the legislative branch.
It seems a given that Obama would happily sign anything that could get through congress. What would survive in the courts is far from certain. Thus, I’d like to focus on the likelihood of gun control making it through congress.
As we know from basic civics class we have a bicameral legislature, that is to say there are two houses, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Legislation must get a bare majority in both houses. Let’s do some congressional head counting and see how we think the vote is likely to come down.
The Senate is where Ms. Fienstein will introduce her bill so let us discuss it first. There are of course 100 US senate seats. The bill is to be introduced when the new congress comes in. Thus, we should look at the makeup of the 113th congress not the 112th. The Democrats will have 53 seats. There are two independents who are for our purposes in essence Democrats (one Liberman a long time Democrat has voiced support for the legislation). Republicans hold the remaining 45 seats. I mention these numbers because the fact is this legislation will be drafted and pushed for buy the Democratic party bosses. Its hopes also seem to live or die with the Democrats.
To win a vote the antis will need 51 votes. Can they get it. Let’s look at it. I think there will be at best a few Republican Senators that will vote to support it. We can look at that assertion in more detail later. It should also be noted that Republicans could filibuster and cloture (the procedural move to force an end below is a list of my projected votes with commentary for some and a note of the likely swing voters.
In the fight to get to 50 votes it will very likely be a party split with limited crossover. Some Senators are going to be predictably in one camp or another. Below I discuss those that are likely to make the difference in whether this measure can pass the Senate.
