Can the ammo situation get much worse?

[Killian]

Their attempts at inciting a mini panic price spiral was a flop.
Any similar comments now indicate (to me) their realization that the ammo price bubble will deflate. It's just a matter of when and whether it is very gradual-or not.
With so much ammo Trying to be sold on GB etc, imagine the concern of large numbers of unsuccessful sellers when it finally hits. Most people will wait and enjoy the price deflation. Then the spiral will accelerate.

Notice the 47 pages of .22 ammo listed now on GB, with many receiving no actual bids, except from the seller.

The "ammo price bubble" might drop. An alternative theory to that though would be that perhaps the demand curve has permanently shifted. The simplest way for the demand curve to shift would be if more people suddenly decided it was in their interest to purchase a gun and more ammunition. If millions of people decide to do that--and it seems they have--and you do NOT see an increase in the production capabilities of ammunition--which it would appear we have not--then prices will rise and remain high as long as the demand is there.
Economics 101...more demand, same amount of production for the product demanded equals high price for the product demanded.

The guys selling .22 on GB are taking a bit of an advantage on this increased demand. It's good to see they are out there though because it means that at least some people can get a box of ammunition if they need it. For self defense, subsistence hunting, wildlife control--whatever. The alternative would be that ammunition was completely unavailable outside of what comes to the big box store. You could be a very long time waiting for ammunition then--if ever--in the current environment.

Depending on what some people charge, it probably works out cheaper to spend the $50 for a brick of .22. By the time you travel to 15 or 20 Walmarts trying to find ammunition for a lower price ($20 a brick or so right?) you'll have spent countless hours and tons of money on gas just to find the "bargain". If you need the ammunition--versus just wanting it--at least you have an avenue to get it. You just have to pay for it. At least its available.

That's how I can see this situation getting worse. If some suppliers are "knocked out" of the chain of supply right now. A war in Korea taking PMC offline and at the same time causing our country to purchase billions of rounds for our own use and to send to Japan and South Korea's militaries would be one worse thing. If you think prices are bad now, that would pump 'em up beyond your worst nightmare.

Another potential disruption is legislative action in anti-gun states. Some of those states have companies located within them. I haven't researched it, but I'm assuming some ammunition makers have factories in those states. If they elect to move their facilities to more friendly states--which they should do, btw--why support a state with your taxes if it is trying to institute nationwide changes that would hang you?--then during the process of moving their facilities, you'll see a diminishment of production until they build new factories somewhere else.

 

[JVaughn]

An alternative theory to that though would be that perhaps the demand curve has permanently shifted. The simplest way for the demand curve to shift would be if more people suddenly decided it was in their interest to purchase a gun and more ammunition. If millions of people decide to do that--and it seems they have--

If it is this, and I sincerely hope it is, then as our side gains new owners, they will become shooters, and eventually voters. This theory ends in victory for us I think.

 

[itsa pain]

people talk about supply and demand economics 101 I say bull. we have companies paying the govt to form monopolies. I say the ammo and gun makers paid govt to stop norinco from selling guns and ammo here. this is not capitalism economics 101 or supply and demand which never worked with the oil supply overflowing no one using it the way they did before and the prices are still high. this is organized crime

 

[j1]

Did some thinkin and I see no reason why not.."

 

[PabloJ]

Yes. I would pick up: bottled water, condensed milk, batteries, chocolate,......as well.

 

[PabloJ]

I hadn't been to my local Gander Mountain store for quite awhile, but went there yesterday to see if they carried speed strips (they don't) and thought I'd at least see what pistol ammo was selling for. I looked around and then had to ask a sales clerk for where the pistol ammo was, since the entire area was now taken up by other merchandise. I was directed to an aisle end cap, which was labeled "Self Defense Ammunition" and told that this was all the pistol ammo that they had. It consisted totally of some boxes of 17 caliber, 45 colt, and 410 shotgun ammo. That was it. I asked another clerk and said there must be other handgun ammunition in the store and was told, no, what I had seen was it. This is really unbelievable. I don't keep large stocks of ammo for the several calibers that I shoot at the range, maybe 500 to 800 in each caliber and 1,500 or so in 22LR but not I am not sure I am ready to shoot what I have and risk having none.

I have perfect solution to your problem. Since you live in Illinois why not contact your state officials and suggest ammo be sold just like pseudoephedrine products at a pharmacy. When daily or monthly limit is reached NO MORE can be sold period with no 'manager override' possible. I am sure this would solve our ammo shortage problem very quickly.

 

[gym]

I am suspending my shooting until ammo becomes available again, I refuse to shoot my remaining supply at paper, when it's costing a dollar a round to do so. May as well get an air rifle and pistol.

 

[Warp]

I am suspending my shooting until ammo becomes available again, I refuse to shoot my remaining supply at paper, when it's costing a dollar a round to do so. May as well get an air rifle and pistol.

What is costing you $1 a round??

 

[JRH6856]

What is costing you $1 a round??

In my case, 6.8 SPC.

 

[Warp]

In my case, 6.8 SPC.

I'd more interested in what gym is paying $1 a round for.

Unless you are no longer doing any shooting due to ammo prices because $1/round 6.8 is your only option. If that were true (I'm guessing it's not) I would say "you're doing it wrong"

 

[clutch]

I thought things were getting better but today after shopping around the area I'm not so sure. Snow is still on the ground around here, we had a tease for a few days when the grass showed its face for a few days.

The store that normally has powder was fairly stripped of pistol powder and most of the mainstream rifle powder. Not a single primer in the place.

Bullets, well, I did spot two boxes of .45 cal 230g XTP's on a counter that hadn't been priced yet. I bought one of the boxes. The clerks were repricing all the Hornady bullets. They have a new price list.

The gun racks had holes. Normally if there is a slot in the rack or under the counter, there is a gun there. Not today.

The wallymart that has been good to me was devoid of just about everything. They did have some 6.8 SPC.

I have a feeling it is going to get worse when the snow goes away and we have spring.

 

[mahansm]

I hit the local gun show this morning. I saw a "555" Remington bulk pack of .22LR priced at an even $100. When I went back by an hour later it was gone.
Someone was selling Tula small rifle primers for $70/brick.

On the brighter side, there were quite a few vendors with modern sporting rifles on display. Prices were not extreme.

Georgia Arms had pistol primers for $30/brick. Their ammo was selling briskly and the line was at least an hour; this was 20 minutes after the show opened.
They had a selection of rifle powders (no Varget) in 1 lb containers.

I picked up some random parts/accessories that I needed.

A range trip in the afternoon made for a pretty good day.

 

[Arkansas Paul]

I picked up some 9mm ammo at Wally World today, so I'd say yes, it could be worse.
Hopefully I won't be relying on off the shelf ammo for 9mm very long. When I get these leading issues solved, I'll be home free.

 

[pat701]

No ammo is gun control

 

[jackdaddycustoms]

thats right pat. I don't want to sound like the sky is falling, but ii'm afraid that if they feel like they can't go after the guns, then they'll just make it impossible to shoot them by going after the ammo.

 

[Ignition Override]

pat701: Quite true.
The unprepared along with the new shooters, who buy the ammo at extortionate (present market) prices have
indirectly solved some of the gun control problem for the anti-gun mob.

There were plenty of ARs in .223 at the Germantown/Memphis show today.
Five of these plus an AK-74 were in a pawn shop in West Point MS (Hwy 45) a week ago. I saw them Friday and the following Monday.

 

[gdcpony]

I just picked up 5# of Varget today from the base skeet range. They have some H335 too, but I am going to a powder that can feed all my rifles. Reloading is being hit just as hard. Try finding .224 bullets, or primers. My kids are regulated to shooting bows as my .22LR stocks go too low (under 1k).

I got caught on this one. I was planning on restocking my reloading stocks after the holidays. That plan backfired.

Luckily, I do have one ace up my sleeve. A round that no one (or few others) shoot is one of my favorites. Plenty of .257 Roberts around, and the price for ammo or components is no worse than it was. I also have about 4k of primed .223 and some primers left so once I find bullets, it is on again.

 

[Arkansas Paul]

I am going to a powder that can feed all my rifles.

I'm headed that way myself. I've been experimenting with RL15 lately. My '06 really likes it, and it seems to be very versatile, so that may be the ticket for me.

Handgun stuff, not so much. I think I use a different powder for nearly every caliber.

 

[Ignition Override]

Killian: Your analysis stated some excellent points. Your beer is pretty good, also.

The many new shooters might accept today's prices as normal, but some of the unknowns are whether the majority continue
to pay any auction bid/"buy now" prices, Armslist prices etc, or discover what prices were in November and decide to wait.

 

[captain awesome]

I don't expect it to get any worse, but I am planning as if it will. I look for stock when ever I can, and have been trying to stock up on components to reload for a couple years now. I was at Sportsmans Warehouse yesterday looking for powder when their shipment arrived, and they received none. They got in about 30 boxes of primers, and rationed them out, one of each type they had, per customer. All they had was small pistol, and large rifle. I have a use for both so I got one of each.
I was also looking for 22lr, and they said they weren't going to hand that or pistol calibers out till this morning. I showed up a little after 9 am, and found a line stretching across the store waiting for the ammo rations. They didn't get a single box of 22 ammo in the shipment. They did say that they still had some 22 in stock but it was reserved for people who buy a 22 firearm, one box for each gun. I considered going and buying a 22 bolt action that I have desired for a while just for that reason. I decided not to, but I suppose I can do that later if I wish.
So no 22 for me, well, for my wife really, as 22 does little to excite me any more, and its the only thing she will touch.
And no powder for me, at least until an order I placed comes in a few weeks. I did find an online retailer with some very usable powder for the common rifle rounds, it doesn't seem as very many people know about it though, as it has continued to be in stock for a while now. You'll have to work for it though, like I did if you want to find it.

 

[j1]

Times are notgood and donot seem to be getting better concerning the unavaolability and pricing of 22 LR ammo. The days of the 10 22 and hi cap mags seems to have gone the way ofthe dinosaur.

 

[68lemans462]

Tula primers of many varieties are selling at www.natchezss.com

 

[JohnBT]

"and donot seem to be getting better concerning the unavaolability and pricing of 22 LR ammo."

I've been watching prices using the gunbot site and a few days ago a vendor listed Wolf Match Target for $139.99 a brick and WM Extra for $149.99. A few minutes ago I noticed the WMT is gone.

Dang.

 

[ngnrd]

Just got back from the LGS. Naw... there's no ammo to be had anywhere... Nope. No 45, 40, or 9mm to be had. Anywhere.



And there's no AR magazines, either...




I know, I know... the pictures are terrible. But what you're looking at is a rack full of 20- and 30-round AR mags: ProMag, Thermold, Lancer, and Troy. There were others, including some cumbersome looking 60-round steel mags, and even some mags for Mini-14's and AK's.

I almost bought an 8-pound keg of BLC(2) just because it was there, but I don't have any more room in my powder cabinet. I also decided to pass on the Berry's 230gr RN 45's and a variety of primer bricks for the same reason. I have enough to last me ... a while. I did buy one of the bulk boxes of 45 to put on the shelf for when I go shooting with a buddy, 'cause I won't shoot my handloads in someone else's gun, and I don't expect him to cover the cost of my plinking with his pistol.

Oh... and, of course the best part is... everything was at pre-panic retail prices.

 

[j1]

A better question would be what will it do?