chance of using your ccw for defense?

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I have been involved in four defensive gun use incidents.

The first was in 1964, and the second, around ten years ago. No shots were fired.

If you want to know the likelihood of someone being attacked in any one day, that information is not available.

It is, however, a whole lot lower than 1/365 th of an annual figure

For a nation-wide per capita stat for a violent attack in any one year, that datum is immediately available-but meaningless.

It would not apply to people who do not live in places like Chicago, Memphis, and St. Louis.

For people who do not go into bars, deliver pizza, or work nights in quick shops, the stat would be too high.

Most of us made it through last year unscathed. If the likelihood for each year is the same, and the events are independent, the likelihood for someone getting through three years is bit hither than one might expect.. Statistics are funny things.

Asa matter or fact, on a national average basis, a person has around a 40 or 50 % chance of being victimized by violent criminals at least once during a twenty year span. that's why I asked the question.

According to Attorney Andrew Branca, FBI statistics tell us that only around one fourth of violent criminal attacks would justify the use of deadly force for self defense.

Branca carries pepper spray.

Pepper spray is not always effective.

Andrew also carries a pistol.

So do I.

I rarely go out at night, and never into bars, etc.

I am, however, getting along in years, and I am not very fit.. I do not walk well. I cannot run.

For those who have never considered that, that makes me a much more likely target for a violent criminal attack than are most people in the same venue.

I need to keep a walking aid with me. A cane will work, but a stick is better.

A good 57 inch hickory stick helps with walking; it has an obvious deterrent effect; and it can be used as less-than-lethal force in self defense.
 
Go to an ATM at 2:00 AM..
Maybe 5-10 percent.

A customer (who competes at our Action Pistol ranges) told me that a car pulled behind his, and the driver got out, Hiding/Moving behind columns of the bank drive-through.

The customer told him ““Move any closer and you are Dead!”. The perp saw his gun, ran away, was soon arrested.

But if always using common sense—- Far Less than 1 percent.

@@Thinking about all of this adds a hint of excitement to routine lives, and maybe helps justify one or two of the nine handguns I own. But imagining that I will Actually ever “Need” one of my AKs or the VZ-58 is truly Delusional....
 
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I’ve been involved in two incidents where a firearm was drawn. Neither time was I the one carrying (I was less than 16) and neither time was a shot fired.

so, just the odds of that were pretty dang slim.
im not going to try and guess what the odds may be that it could happen again...but they’re high enough for me to understand the importance of being ready.

I don’t know where I’d be if I hadn’t seen the things I have. But an impression was surely left, about what a gun in the hands of a “good guy” can do to settle a chaotic and dangerous situation.
 
Which is less than 1% of the population
Which, as I tried to explain, provides little basis for comfort to anyone who understands statistics.

Most people would be shocked to learn what that really means.

From the Bureau of Justice Statistics

Annual victimization rates Annual victimization rates alone do not convey the full impact of crime as it affects people. No one would express his or her concern by saying, "I am terribly afraid of being mugged between January and December of this year." People are worried about the possibility that at some tine in their lives they will be robbed or raped or assaulted, or their homes will be burglarized. Annual rates can provide a false sense of security by masking the real impact of crime. Upon hearing that the homicide rate is about 8 to 10 per 100,000 population, one feels safe; after all, 1 chance in 10,000 is not very frightening. Actually, however, at recent homicide rates about 1 of every 133 Americans will become a murder victim; for black males the proportion is estimated to be 1 of every 30. Similarly, while 16 out of 10,000 women March 1987 The Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Survey provides annual victimization rates based on counts of the number of crimes reported and not reported to police in the United States. These rates are based on interviews twice a year with about 101,000 persons in approximately 49,000 nationally representative households. Those annual rates, while of obvious utility to policymakers, researchers, and statisticians, do not convey to American citizens the full impact of crime on them nor do they answer a critical question for each individual: What is the possibility that I will be a crime victim? This technical report is designed to shed light on this question. Steven R. Schlesinger Director are rape victims annually, the lifetime chances of suffering a rape are much greater.​
 
We have a 1% rate of violent crime in my city of about 500.000. Obviously rapes, domestic violence, bar fights and on and on figures into all of this. And of course the location of the part of the city is a big factor. And then there are accidental shooting, suicide etc.
Personally, I think high on the list are Rape, and Road Rage. Yes, I carry every day, have been for almost 15 yrs. But I carry a 380 small gun and I can shoot it very well. The reason more than anything is Peace of Mind.
(Please no caliber war).

I shoot on a regular schedule
6 pocket guns in 380
5 Micro 9mm's
2 snubbies.
All of which I may carry on any given day. Nothing larger for EDC.
 
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There are many variables involved in calculating a percentage risk for needed Defensive Gun Use that only you can assess for yourself. I'd say high on the DGU qualifier list are your personality, lifestyle, where you live and work, type of work, mode of transportation, social activities, times of day you work, and times you play. Where you spend your time and with whom are also qualifiers that many of the surveys currently out do not take into consideration.
 
Possibly. But I'd shot the dude if he had made a move that was a real threat.
And?

And I was not concealing then. Gun was in car in a holster before I pulled it. It was legal them to open carry and carry in a car holstered.
"Pulling a gun" is not justified by the lawfulness of open carry.

The crime in Arizona is known as Aggravated Assault--a felony.
 
In a way this is a math problem. If the NRA's estimate of 2,000,000 defensive gun uses annually is accurate (that number will change from year to year) and our population is 330,000,000 the answer is .6% over the course of a year. If there's any math majors here they can correct my math if it's wrong. As Kleenbore mentioned you need to also account for an increase or decrease based on where you live, lifestyle choices, etc. I live in a Chicago suburb with a very low crime rate, I rarely go to bars and when I do it's more of a restaurant with a bar and my friends are not criminals, so my odds are pretty low. I also understand that unfortunately whether a criminal targets me or my home is not my choice so I don't assume it can't happen.
 
thought came to mind today....
what are the chances of using you firearm for
defense. i carry every moment i am awake, but
i was just wondering percentage wise what the chances would be. anyone have some
accurate stats?
>1% <10% ?

Pull trigger or just take it out(assuming it a legal action, not just some ego, brandish type gig)? Sometimes just taking it out stops the situation.
BUT, even tho teeny, tiny from what I've read..I'm still in the camp of
'better to have it and not need it, rather than need it and not have it'..particularly these days. I live in a very safe but gun-adverse area. On the one hand, probability of needing it very low BUT it's also a fairly 'upscale', upper middle class town also..meaning a pretty soft target.
 
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In a way this is a math problem.
Yes it is.

You have to figure put the probability that an incident will not happen once during the period in question, and subtract that from 100%.

Throw a die, and see if the number six comes up.

The chance is 16 2/3 percent.

What do you think the chance would be of never having a six come up in twenty throws?

Hint: it is much, much, MUCH higher than one might think.

Similarly, your chance of never being attacked in twenty years is a lot lower than an annual per capita figure might seem to suggest.

Does this help?
 
I live in California, in a county where getting a CCW is nearly impossible. I'll be 60 this year. I've had 2 occasions when I perceived ill intent and for some reason, the people who where the source of my concern somehow got the impression that I had a gun nearby and had a change of heart. On one other occasion, a young man broke into a sprint in my direction and I simply dove away. No words were exchanged on any of these occasions.
I didn't fire a shot, point a weapon nor brandish a weapon on any of these occasions.
 
thought came to mind today....
what are the chances of using you firearm for
defense. i carry every moment i am awake, but
i was just wondering percentage wise what the chances would be. anyone have some
accurate stats?
>1% <10% ?

There are no reliable figures available nationally.

Mostly it's up to you. Where do you live and what do you do? You have more control over this than some folks think.

So even if there were good figures for this they would make little difference.

It's like looking at average life expectancy and based on that planning your retirement and planning on spending all your money before you hit that age.

Also if you think of your hand gun as your first line of defense you are more likely to pull that roscoe on someone, more likely to get in a gunfight (or a one sided gun fight with you having the only gun) and shoot someone (and likely spend some time in jail).
 
Interesting. I wonder what are the chances of being thrown in jail are in a confrontation when you have a firearm vs the other guy that does not? Or accused of Brandishing even when you did not? Or someone that committed suicide that might not have if a gun were not in his or her presence, or a person killed by a negligent discharge etc. Hey, I am pro carry and have been for over 15 yrs. My point is you can throw out percentages and numbers all day long. It seems to me a lot of folks do not appreciate the fact that most people do actually understand the threats they encounter every day where they live and make their own choices. Does throwing out all kinds of numbers actually work in scaring someone to carry? Or which firearm to carry?
I have liberal friends that will not carry no matter what numbers I give them. I have no problem with this as long as they do not tell me that I should not.
Let people carry what they want to. Why is that so difficult?
I called my 89yr old Mother this morning. In the conversation I told her her chances of being Blown away in a gun fight were getting close according to some statistics. You should have heard the laughter at the other end of the phone. She said, "Where the hell did you get that crap from? The Internet"?
 
Assume, I try not to assume anything, assumptions are problematic ( Ass-U-Me). I stated this often that I practice this like a religion avoidance of (Stupid People - Places & Things). Even avoidance as previously mentioned may not help. There are certain places I simply do not frequent such has an example, convenience stores during the hours of darkness. I could go on with other examples. We reside in a relatively low violent crime area. Shooting incidents are the exceptions with only two or three in the last twenty-five years or so there are the usual crimes of theft and related, but I'll allow that illegal drugs are becoming a nettlesome issue. All of this could change tomorrow dependent on an incident of occurrence. No One can promise you tomorrow!
 
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Assume, I try not to assume anything, assumptions are problematic ( Ass-U-Me). I stated this often that I practice this like a religion avoidance of (Stupid People - Places & Things). Even avoidance as previously mentioned may not help. There are certain places I simply do frequent such has an example, convenience stores during the hours of darkness. I could go on with other examples. We reside in a relatively low violent crime area. Shooting incidents are the exceptions with only two or three in the last twenty-five years or so there are the usual crimes of theft and related, but I'll allow that illegal drugs are becoming a nettlesome issue. All of this could change tomorrow dependent on an incident of occurrence. No One can promise you tomorrow!

And do not assume even folks that do not carry do not have common sense. Avoidence of every thing you mentioned above are common sense for all. Since the Panic, look at all the crap some on gun forums are eating. Maybe a heart attack will get them before a bullet. I wonder what the odds are?
 
I wonder what are the chances of being thrown in jail are in a confrontation when you have a firearm vs the other guy that does not?
The latter is almost entirely independent of the former.

Or accused of Brandishing even when you did not?
Should someone be able to identify your gun, that would indicate that he or she has seen it.

If you have shown it, the best way to avoid difficulty, assuming of course that you ere justified, is to be the first to report it.

Does throwing out all kinds of numbers actually work in scaring someone to carry?
Probably not. Most people seem to interpret per capita stats in a way the far understates the likelihood.

Since the Panic, look at all the crap some on gun forums are eating. Maybe a heart attack will get them before a bullet. I wonder what the odds are?
What are you talking about?
 
I'm not a statistics kind of guy, so I've made it a habit to carry or have my defensive firearm close at hand and ready to rock 24/7. I look at it the same way I do auto/homeowner insurance or fire extinguishers...I don't anticipate having to ever use them but want to be prepared if the need arises.
 
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