Michael, you have my support and my respect for your efforts to study the effect of bullet design, and to improve that design. We can all make very good use of such research. However, I'm afraid I must continue to disagree with you that this study relates to "stopping power" as such. I don't believe that such an animal exists, and I think that to strive to predict "stopping power" is to pursue a chimera. Also, your comments about timing, and statements such as
proper self-defense training should have the gun drawn prior to contact
don't really help much... sometimes one has no warning whatsoever about the attack, and can't prepare for it.
Let me illustrate this latter point from my own experience - an incident which also produced an instant one-shot stop, but purely by accident!
I was attacked from behind while walking down a street, by a knife-wielding thug. He came up behind me with no warning whatsoever. The first thing I knew about the attack was his knife penetrating my back! Very fortunately for me, he stabbed me alongside the spine, and the point of his knife caught in one of the "wings" of my lower vertebrae - otherwise I wouldn't be here telling you about it. I still have a nice scar on my lower back to remind me.
I arched my back forward, involuntarily, as I was stabbed. I was in Condition Yellow (aware of possible danger, but nothing specific), as I try to be at all times when armed and on the streets. I drew my weapon (a CZ75) partly out of my IWB holster, and fired backward, through the holster and the seat of my pants, in a desperate attempt to prevent another stab from hurting me again. (This gave me a marvellous flash-burn on my right buttock, leading to all sorts of hilarity at the emergency room later!
)
My loads that day (being young and stupid) were my own handloads. I'd taken the Speer 88gr. JHP, designed for the .380 ACP, and handloaded it in 9mm. cases with a large helping of powder, giving a muzzle velocity of something like 1,500 fps. I was (at the time) inexperienced in bullet performance, and had assumed that this velocity would guarantee expansion and make a serious wound. Well, I hadn't allowed for the fact that the Speer bullet was designed for .380 ACP velocities, not the much higher 9mm. velocity (probably well over 50% greater than it was designed for). So, when the bullet hit flesh, it immediately "blew up" into tiny fragments, and didn't penetrate more than an inch or so. Very fortunately for me, the first piece of flesh it hit was my attacker's left testicle... which was effectively shredded, even "vaporized", by the impact. This doubled him over on the spot, squealing like a slaughtered pig, and did indeed produce a "one-shot stop", despite the completely inadequate bullet performance and lack of aim!
I guess we could rate my carry load at the time as "100% effective at one-shot stops" on the basis of that one incident - but that would be a completely fallacious interpretation. It saved my butt by accident, not by design! I was incredibly fortunate to hit my attacker at all with a completely unsighted, unaimed shot. I was even more fortunate not to hit some innocent pedestrian - there were many people on the street at the time. (I was not very well trained then...
) I never again carried ultra-light-for-caliber bullets at extreme velocities, having learned my lesson. I also, over time, came to trust larger calibers more than small ones, as my "database of experience" grew - that's why I don't trust the 9mm. or .38 Special to be more than marginally efficient as "stoppers".