Educated guesses as to overall percentage of population that owns an AR-15?

[General Geoff]

I'm looking for some numbers regarding what percentage of the population at large, as well as the gun owning population specifically, has an AR-15. I know these rifles have been selling like hotcakes for the past four years (since the AWB expired in '04), and I'm wondering just how ubiquitous they've become. Anyone have links or data to this end?

 

[Nomad101bc]

Vast majority of gun owners these days have at least one sporting firearm. AR 15's in specific in the USA probably 50% of all gun owners. The AR 15 is supposed to be one of the most popular firearms in the USA.

 

[Andrewsky]

Interesting question. I'm not sure about ARs but I know there are approximately 250,000 M14-type semi-automatic rifles in the United States. Since people like to own more than one, let's say there are 100,000 M14 owners in the United States. That's still only 1/10th of 1/3rd of a percent of Americans, or .033% of Americans.

Of course there are way more AR15s than M14-type rifles, but I'd still venture to say that less than 3% of the population personally owns an AR15.

 

[Kind of Blued]

<1%.

 

[brentn]

the AR15 is absolutley a HUGE market, you can tell by all the forums and aftermarket parts along with the magazines that are kicking around about AR's. I have a feeling that the number of people that own one are immense as well.

 

[General Geoff]

Would it be a solid assumption to say that there are well over 1 million AR-15 clones/variants in the hands of civilians in the United States?

 

[TAB]

I would say some states have over 1 mil ars in them.

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

The other thing to remember about ARs is that while maybe not every gun owner owns one; a lot of gun owners who own an AR own more than one (in some cases a lot more than one).

 

[RNB65]

AR 15's in specific in the USA probably 50% of all gun owners.

No way. Not even close. I know lots of gun owners and avid shooters. Very few of them own an AR. The AR is no where near as popular as some think it is. I'm guessing that's it closer to 10% of gun owners.

On the other hand, most avid AR shooters own multiple AR's in different configs. I own two and I'm not really a big fan of the AR.

 

[Nomad101bc]

AR's however comprise the largest growing comodity among firearms owners. Many gun companies who were having stagnant sales now are seeing sales on the rise and more importantly newer companies like Stag arms are now getting a foot hold. Thanks to its popularity it is likely a new assault weapon ban would easily be DOA.

 

[Mr_Pale_Horse]

On the order of .1 percent to 1 percent

Of all the people I shoot with (~100 odd Trap, Skeet , Sporting Clays, Practical Pistol, Three Gun, Pistol Silhouette, NRA Service Pistol, NRA Service Rifle, Deer Hunting Buddies) there is one AR owned.

As for my "The End is Nigh" friends, they all did the red blooded American thing and went out and bought the cheapest Norinco SKS they could find.

In general the AR variants cost more and do less, and I suspect their market share is neglible compared to the .22 LR, shotgun, minor Niner handgun, and deer rifle crowds.

 

[woo18]

QUOTE:
"of all the people I shoot with (~100 odd Trap, Skeet , Sporting Clays, Practical Pistol, Three Gun, Pistol Silhouette, NRA Service Pistol, NRA Service Rifle, Deer Hunting Buddies) there is one AR owned."

How many of your ~100 friends shoot three gun or NRA Service Rifle? ARs are the dominant rifle for both types of competition. Every 3 gun competition I have been to, 90% of the competitors are using ARs. It may be not as much with NRA Service rifle, but definitely >50% use ARs in Service Rifle. Although many people have multiple ARs, there are a significant number of shooters who have only one. Mostly the new guys.

According to Stag arms, they have been putting out about 30,000 ARs a year for the past ~2 years, and they are a new entrant in the AR manufacturing community. That is a lot of ARs.

How many ARs can the average American afford? I don't think that most of these ARs are going to current owners, but new ones. In each of my past three visits to a gun store in the past month, I have seen at least one first time buyer picking up an AR.

I have only 1 AR myself, and I am saving up for another. The number may not be 50% but it is pretty darn close.

.1-1 % is a gross underestimation.

 

[jad0110]

Judging by the gunowners I have contact with, my SWAG would be 3%, +/1 1%.

I don't own an AR, but I do own an AK.

 

[Outlaws]

How many ARs can the average American afford? I don't think that most of these ARs are going to current owners, but new ones. In each of my past three visits to a gun store in the past month, I have seen at least one first time buyer picking up an AR.

I have only 1 AR myself, and I am saving up for another. The number may not be 50% but it is pretty darn close.

Its nowhere near 50%. For each one of those 3 people you saw buying an AR, another 10 probably bought a handgun, shotgun, bolt action rifle, or mil surplus as their first firearm.

ARs are the hottest selling rifles right now, but there has been multiple generations worth of guns and gun owners. That takes a lot of time to play catch up with.

 

[RockyMtnTactical]

I would guess 5% of gunowners. Maybe less.

That said, they are one of the most popular battle carbines out there. However, there are so many gunowners who just own one self defense pistol, or one shotgun, or their grandpa's old .22 or something and that is it. Plus plenty that prefer HK, or only AK's, FAL's, etc...

Most gunowners I personally know own at least one, or at least half, but I run with a heavy pro gun group in gun friendly states...

 

[Matt-J2]

Total population of the country that owns an AR?
Small, very small. Less than 1%.
According to the Census Bureau population clock thingy(which is an estimate, of course), at the time I glance at it before typing, there is 303,338,327 people in the US. Plus or minus quite a few, especially illegals. Now: 3,033,383 different people would have to own ARs to equal 1% of the population. Maybe that many people own ARs. I doubt it, but it's certainly not going to be 2%.

As to the percentage of gun owners that own ARs, I couldn't really guess. Certainly higher than 2%, but I'm not sure I'd put it at 50%. I think 15%-25%, tops. Growing, though, that's for sure.

 

[Mr_Pale_Horse]

For IPSC major scoring, the .223 is out, therefore 308 guns dominate. So is the 9mm, so 40's, 45's or 38 supers.

Addmittedly, the highpower generation I shoot with was born before Vietnam, and have no love for the mouse gun either.

 

[cracked butt]

For the general population way less than 1%.

I'm figuring that <10% of the population is involved in shooting sports including hunting and <5% of those own an AR-15, and of those, each probably owns 1.5-2 AR-15s. I'd be suprised if there were more than a million people who owned an AR-15.

 

[benEzra]

I'd guesstimate 1% of the population. On the other side of that coin, AR's are (I believe) the #1 selling centerfire rifle in America right now, and the last USPSA rifle match I competed in, well over 90% of the shooters were shooting AR's.

Remember that the "black rifle" segment is far, far larger than just AR-15's, though, even if the AR-15 is currently the best seller. Owners of SKS's, AR-15's, civilian AK's, and other so-called "assault weapons", put together, significantly outnumber hunters in the United States, if you run the numbers.

 

[The Deer Hunter]

I know of two guys that have AR's at my local club. I have a lower receiver so that kind of counts. In the future I might get another one but Its very unlikely. I just don't see why I need different versions of the same gun....

So there are 3 current members with AR-15s (myself included) and one guy I know who wants one of those lefty ones. So thats about 4 AR-15s among about 180 members.

 

[The Deer Hunter]

ehhh..My connections a bit slow today

 

[Matt-J2]

BenEzra, what numbers are you running though? There really aren't any of the type that would provide enough data to really make an educated guess, if we get right down to it. The closes we can really get a 'max possible'.
Say we have manufacturer XaX. Xax has been in business for the last 3 years, and has produced 33,000 lowers a year, a lower being the only part that counts. So that's 99,000 lowers floating about. However, not all of those have been sold yet. Of those that have been sold by XaX to dealers, how many have been sold to customers? Of those, how many are in the hands of law enforcement agencies, security folks, etc.(basically, not in private ownership). How many of those sold to private owners have been repeat buyers?
I'm pretty sure there's more questions that could be asked before we get relevant numbers. We could substitute 'EBR' for lowers to be more general, but we still end up with a lot of floaters, even if the overall number is higher.

 

[Matt304]

This is a question based on pure speculation, and I don't think there are any studies which have been done to document any such ownership of ARs by Americans.

I'm going to imagine myself walking down my street and knocking on doors, asking each person or family if they own an AR15. My guess is that it would take me some time to find a single home that has one. We are not talking about a shooting community, just an average middle-class ownership assumption. My guess is I could knock on 200 doors before finding an AR15. It's not like you think, most average shooters don't have an AR15. Most average shooters might have a couple of firearms all costing under $500. We hear a lot about it at this forum because we all love to tell each other about the pretty AR15s we own. It's a hazy blur created by the internet if you ask me.

 

[Nomad101bc]

Thats true many house holds just own a shotgun or pistol for HD. We are gun hobbyist or down right addicts.

 

[SnakeEater]

In general the AR variants cost more and do less...

Cost more than what? An SKS? Sure, but the SKS isn't anywhere near the rifle the AR is, not even close.

My guess to the original question. <1% of total pop. / 5% of gun owners.