Export Ban on Firearms and Ammo

.455_Hunter

.455_Hunter

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Announced today- 90 day ban on export of US arms and ammo to civilian and unapproved military destinations.

www.reuters.com

US halts exports of most civilian firearms for 90 days

The 90-day pause applies to all non-governmental users, due to national security and foreign policy interests.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

The Commerce Department did not provide further details for the pause, which also includes shotguns and optical sights, but said an urgent review will assess the "risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities."
 
If your post disappeared it is because it was off topic or not in keeping with the mission of THR. The issues at the southern border, general politics, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, or your paranoid conspiracies are not on topic. Further off topic posts will result in the thread being locked.
 
Look on the bright side, if gun makers end up with a backlog because of this, we may see some good sales, or they may wait it out, we'll see.
 
NIGHTLORD40K said:
Are they lumping foreign police sales in with civilian sales? I would postulate that the vast majority of US arms exports (especially semiautos) are going to LEO agencies, not the common citizenry.
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That and military exports are most likely true.
 
Zendude said:
Would a side effect of this be an increase in domestic supply of guns and ammo in the civilian market?
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Not very likely. Possibly in the short term. For example: if a manufacturer has already produced 50k units (guns) for export, and they can no longer export those units, they will try to sell them in the domestic (U.S.) market, causing a temporary increase in supply. If demand for that type of gun remains constant, then yes, the prices will fall to some extent. However, over the long term, if demand remains constant, the manufacturer will simply produce less of that product, thereby bringing supply back inline with demand and maintaining the current prices. I don't foresee this creating a long term benefit to U.S. gun owners.
 
Continuing on the theme of my earlier post, if US consumers don't pick up the slack by buying more guns (and let's be honest, how could we possibly pick up that much slack?) then, over the long term, my prediction is that we will see decreased profits in the gun industry. Not decreased profit margins; they'll still make n% on every unit produced, but less total sales and less total profits in the year.

Over the long run, this will stifle R&D and we will see less new products come to the market-especially risky products that might not sell. We will also see stock prices hold or decrease as well as dividends on those stocks.
 
D.B. Cooper said:
Continuing on the theme of my earlier post, if US consumers don't pick up the slack by buying more guns (and let's be honest, how could we possibly pick up that much slack?) then, over the long term, my prediction is that we will see decreased profits in the gun industry. Not decreased profit margins; they'll still make n% on every unit produced, but less total sales and less total profits in the year.
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How many firearms manufacturers are publicly traded companies? (I really don’t know.) If they have stockholders and a Board, then they will be expected to increase profits…which means increasing prices to account for a reduced sales volume. So if they can’t sell overseas and no one buys up the stock, then expect prices to go up to make up the difference.

(We spend far too much time preparing investor and Board presentations to explain our company’s quarterly performance!)
 
Zendude said:
Would a side effect of this be an increase in domestic supply of guns and ammo in the civilian market?
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One rumor I've heard is that the current ammo shortage, might be industry induced.

Hopefully this helps current supply here, but I have my doubts.
 
According to a recent article domestic major firearm companies make a significant portion of their profits on foreign sales. Stop foreign sales, profits plunge, companies fold. Stop foreign imports, and voila no guns on the retail market. I’m
not saying it will work, just this is their play. “ Never let a crisis go to waste” Rham Emanuel.
 
Navy87Guy said:
How many firearms manufacturers are publicly traded companies? (I really don’t know.) If they have stockholders and a Board, then they will be expected to increase profits…which means increasing prices to account for a reduced sales volume. So if they can’t sell overseas and no one buys up the stock, then expect prices to go up to make up the difference.

(We spend far too much time preparing investor and Board presentations to explain our company’s quarterly performance!)
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I don't disagree, but I don't see how producers are going to increase demand for their guns by increasing the prices for them. That's a game of diminishing returns. No one is going to pay $1200 for a Glock. Additionally, if they push prices too high, you'll see an explosion of demand for, and an increased value of, used guns.

But for now, all of this is just speculation. Long story short, I don't see much of an upside to this.
 
@D.B. Cooper - I’m with you. The market is all about finding the right balance.

I don’t know how companies manage their export licenses - whether they are specific to an order or have a longer time horizon. Since approved licenses are not impacted, that could mean a lot (majority) of guns produced for the international market will still get shipped. How much “surplus” remains in the US is to be determined.
 
I’d guess someone was doing something shady in the export paperwork that needs to be checked. There is no shortage of underpaid bureaucrats in that list of importing countries willing to run a side hustle diverting police guns to terrorists and organized crime networks for cash.

I suspect after a review and maybe some additional paperwork most exports will resume.
 
90 day freeze on new export licenses.

Has there been a recent influx of questionable foreign orders? Years ago Qaddaffi's Lybia got around a ban on arms exports to Lybia's military with a bogus order of pistols by a bogus LE agency.
 
Speedo66 said:
Surprised to see Thailand was the biggest importer.
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I was scratching my head at that one too.

Speedo66 said:
I would have to think that was military or police acquisition.
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It has to be. The population of Thailand is only a little over 7 million. I'm guessing that they completely resupplied their military between 2005 and 2022, the years covered by that chart.
 
Guns and ammo are same as any other product. When the demand is high and the supply small prices rise. Demand low and supply high they decrease, sometimes to the point where companies go out of business. I have no idea what this embargo will do but expect it to hurt some companies and consumers may see some slightly lower prices.
 
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