I think the catch is that a billion $ goes farther in China than in the USA.
If your point is that China is the (vastly) lower-cost producer, a net exporter, a still-ascending manufacturing power, and a creditor (and all that does matter since we are none of the above), then your comment is very astute.
Last month's Economists predicted that purchasing power parity of China's economy would equal the US in a decade and a half, or so, and if you simply took the GDP and multipled by exchange rates then it would happen years sooner, them being 2/3 the US today.
If the dingleberries in Congress slap the 30% tariff they want on the Chinese, the exchange rate will get the Chinese PPP (and then some) almost overnight. The Chinese will divest themselves of dollars and let the renminbi float, not wildly print notes & buy FRNs like the Bank of Japan.
The arbitrage on commodity prices would largely make up for any tariff, meanwhile we get to buy everything, including food and energy (which aren't measured in the worthless CPI anyway) at vastly increased prices.
Does anybody really want the Chinese (who are competing with us for resources across the globe, including
militarily relevant steel/copper/oil) to have a much stronger currency?
Remember, they import commodities and turn out finished goods. We largely design things and provide services.
To say nothing of the fact that China is hardly monolithic. Their society has been infected with the virus of free market economics, and it's only a matter of time before their version of communism crumbles into dust.
Do they have the domestic demand to keep their economy going if
we crumble? A decade from now, they surely will, but for now, they play the game, letting us build their infrastructure while buying our bad debt.
What convinces me you are right is what you mention, plus
multi-person (though still single-party, for now) elections in the countryside, in order to placate the large agrarian populations. When you hear a Chinese farmer promising to "hold the government accountable", well, it tells me it's just a matter of time before he tries to. Our own government is poor at delivering on its promises, the Communists will be doubly so. Let's hope the Communists are given less time than anybody dared believe.