The Frenzy is not over, just folks do not have the money to drop right now. Kids are home, vacation time, people laying back to see what the feds do and the tax refunds are now all spent.
I believe Fall will show if it is over or not. I was talking to a friend of mine at CCI and he stated they hav large world wide orders (back ordered) out to March 2011.
Most of the table dealers are also either home or store front dealers, so they have the pulse on the entire market. If they feel they can get $25 a lb from you, they will charge it.
I recently sold (traded) and yes (I would consider trades of specific .410 and .22lr pieces for my reloading component stock piles) 30,000 small rifle primers to a table dealer friend (never again) as I had seen how he jacked the price up so high that I felt embarrased even knowing the guy...BUT.... they sold out in a matter of 1 1/2 hours.
I think people have gotten their AR's, AK's, 45's and 9mm, .32 pieces they want through various sources as I too just see them lay there and at my friends shop. I believe in early fall you will see prices in ammo go up an even more percent close to 20 - 25%, this goes for reloading compents as well (some componets I feel will be as high as 40-50%). I believe they will stay there for at least until 2010 elections and if the rep/indy feds do not regain some control in both house and senate, it will litterally go through the roof.
I did notice a very significant rise in C&R Mil-Surp sales, people grabbing 2-3 pieces at a time and the ammo to go with them.
I have also noticed parts are scarce, people are buying them up in planning for long term holdings of their current firearms. My .45, garand and Carbine stock of parts have dwindled... people buying 3 of what they need, like firing pins, spring sets, pin sets. I just had a single person here at THR buy my entire stock of Rem Model 11, 11-48, 1100 and 870 parts and he is not a dealer or a smithy (yes I kept a small supply back for my and some customers use).
5.56, .308, 30-06, 9mm, .45 and small cal ammo was actually a decent price given the market. What I was surprised at were the .22 rim fires and other rim fires prices being so high and they were selling bricks at a time.
I am not so sure about the false sense of avail as it is the same table dealers that own the basement and store shops. Places like davidsons, rsr, J&G, Graf etc.... are also low on stocks.... so I believe the shortage is real and people are falling into the supply & demand scene. I found a fantastic (will be kept secret) wholesale place near me here in Ohio that has tons of stock as they bought a lot when the prices were down, but they do ration their sales to people, but shop and police department sales are not restricted. BUT.... they do have what you want at lower then list prices.
I actually had seen an argument break out between two show goers over some components, one guy bought a lot and the other guy was truly pissed because he did not get his. I shrugged my shoulders and well, that is supply and demand at it's core, if you wait for what you need and not plan for it, you will fall victim to lines and supply and demand.
Regards,
Mike
