Gunowners surveys...shy a few

[hso]

We've commonly heard that surveys trying to estimate the number of gunowners suffer from owners unwilling to answer yes.

A new study attempts to account for this and estimates better than 60% of households are gunowners.


https://www.ammoland.com/2023/08/st...ay-be-double-previous-estimate/#ixzz8AYV36Ju8
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Study Shows Gun Ownership may be Double Previous Estimate​

Ammoland Inc. Posted on August 15, 2023 by Dean Weingarten

The number of gun owners willing to announce their ownership status in a survey is fairly close to the large survey done in 2021 by Dr. William English.
On June 23, a study on the underreporting of firearm ownership was published in the Journal ” Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology.” The title is “Predicting potential underreporting of firearm ownership in a nationally representative sample,” hereafter referred to as the ‘study.’ The study indicated the number of people who refuse to report they are firearm owners, who have been called “shy” firearms owners, are about as numerous as firearms owners willing to identify themselves as such.
The full study is behind a paywall online. Allison E. Bond, the principal author of the study, was very kind and sent a copy for me to read for this article.
The study used a sample of 3500 people who were chosen to be a representative of United States adults. The number of adults in the United States at the time of the survey was about 258 million. They found 34.6% of those surveyed admitted to owning firearms, about 89 million people. The study estimated another 29.6% of respondents were likely to be “shy” gun owners. This would put the total number of gun owners in the US at roughly 64% of adults, or 166 million people.

The study found that American gun owners are more diverse than previously thought. The percentage of women and people of color who own guns is growing rapidly.​

The number of “shy” firearms owners has been a major uncertainty overhanging the study of firearms ownership and its effects in the United States. The study approached the uncertainty from the perspective of interest in understanding and preventing suicide in the nation’s population. While the study acknowledged 50% of suicides in the US involve firearms, it did not mention the percentage involving firearms has fallen from about 60% in the early and mid-1990s.
Any attempt to measure the number of “shy” gun owners is difficult. The study was clear about the difficulty:

Ultimately, our model cannot conclusively determine whether those designated as potential firearm owners truly owned firearms at the time of the survey—nor can we determine why they falsely denied firearm ownership if, in fact, they did so.

As is common in academic studies, the paper calls for more study. There are several ways of better understanding the number of gun owners that might be gleaned from careful data gathering. Surveys might be designed to find the “shy” gun owner. An intensive investigation of small samples might prove informative. Statistical evidence may be available from the FBI NICS system. The few states which require gun registration for legal ownership may give clues to trends in gun ownership numbers. From the study:

Several limitations must be considered in interpreting our findings. First, our model cannot conclusively determine whether any of the probable firearm owners are actual firearm owners. As such, this preliminary examination rests on empirical assumptions and must be seen as an initial test in need of independent replication and more nuanced analysis.

The number of gun owners willing to announce their ownership status in a survey is fairly close to the large survey done in 2021 by Dr. William English. Dr. English found 31.9% of adults were willing to disclose they owned a firearm, which compares favorably to the 34.6% found in the current study. Both surveys were done with known samples rather than as random telephone surveys. The response to telephone surveys has fallen enormously since 1997. The response in 1997 was 36%. From pewresearch.org:

In 2017 and 2018, typical telephone survey response rates fell to 7% and 6%, respectively, according to the Center’s latest data. Response rates had previously held steady around 9% for several years.

Random telephone surveys have become less and less reliable as a result of a lack of participation.

The precise number of “shy” gun owners is not clear. The number is probably substantial. Such numbers have significant political consequences. If there are 166 million gun-owning adults in the USA, it explains much of the political success of Second Amendment supporters. If nearly half of them are “shy” gun owners, the “shy” gun owners may also be “shy” about responding to surveys that indicate support for or against the right to keep and bear arms.

 

[doubleh]

I can't understand why anyone would respond to a random telephone survey about anything. My response to each and everyone is silence and ending the call. The fewer people that know any of my information the better I like it and make an effort to keep it that way.

 

[scaatylobo]

ONLY a fool answers ANY questions on their phone !!

 

[rust collector]

Such studies seem to get weaponized, either at the beginning or through data manipulation. They are important for many purposes, and I wish we could volunteer for a group that could be vetted to produce accurate sampling and answers that were more than self-reporting with all the bias that imparts. I read about studies such as the Nurses' Health Study and what we have learned about long term health and wellness, and I am grateful such studies were and are conducted. I am not sure that will continue to be possible in the future, as we learn of abuses that have occurred in the past.

 

[br549arkie]

None of their business. I never answer the phone unless I recognize the # anyway.

 

[CDW4ME]

The people who did not respond to the survey were armed to the teeth.

 

[Remington1911]

The people who did not respond to the survey were armed to the teeth.

There is no telling, they could not have a sling shot. You can rationalize anything.

Personally I will pickup the phone at home if someone calls, I am an on call type person and there is zero chance I am going to remember the numbers of 100+ people. If it is a sales call or whatever I just hang up.

 

[Spats McGee]

This doesn't surprise me. Even assuming I answer the phone for an unknown number, I don't answer questions from strangers about what things I do or do not own.

 

[dodo bird]

My super liberal MIL owns a revolver. She doesn’t think anyone should own a gun.(besides herself). I asked her about why she has it. She says it’s because she lives alone. I guarantee she would have answered NO it asked in a survey. “Rules for thee not more me” is her unofficial motto.

 

[Hartkopf]

So I wonder how the surveys like this were answered in countries that later became communist?. Maybe those surveys were called “registration?”

 

[AlexanderA]

The antigunners have "poisoned the well" by their repeated calls for gun bans and confiscation. Therefore, any gun owner, even one that is otherwise inclined to participate in surveys, would be out of his mind to admit that he owned. Any such reported figures are utterly worthless. This is one of those issues that simply cannot be surveyed.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

At various times Gallup reported mid-30% to mid-50% of households reporting owning a gun

Gallup explained that willingness to report owning a gun is dependent a lot on how hot an issue gun control is.

On the 2020 campaign trail Biden was asked, if he passed his Assault Weapon Ban, what would he do if people refused to turn in their AR15s. He replied the Federal Government had F15s and Hellfire missiles. Buttigieg upped the ante to nukes. Can't make the issue hotter than that.

The pollster introduction to the subject and the wording of the question also can skew the results.

 

[AlexanderA]

Gun control, along with Social Security, used to be a "third rail" of American politics. No smart politician would touch it. Then, because of non-responsiveness to surveys by gun owners, a false impression was created that guns were no longer such a salient issue. This encouraged the antigunners. But in reality, gun ownership -- already high -- was increasing by leaps and bounds. It remains to be seen whether this translates into votes, or whether gun owners will opt to go underground with their guns, be silent, and then just ignore whatever gun laws are passed. (Which is the pattern that we see in parts of southern and eastern Europe.)

 

[CapnMac]

The few states which require gun registration for legal ownership may give clues to trends in gun ownership numbers.

I would be willing to wager (but would be loathe to try and conceive of a way to prove it) that there would be an inverse relationship between being "willing to report" and "places that require gun registration." The rather simplistic syllogism in that reporting an unregistered item is self-incriminating being a touch obvious.

Places with intense registration like Europe have vast numbers of "illegal arms" despite the illegality of those.

The benign phrase "probable firearm owners" chills me a bit, despite the fact that I understand the academic desire for use in statistic calculations. The notion that each of us can be analyzed and categorized by external data is real, no matter how ugly the results, sadly.

Sadly, as noted above any "real number" will used for political expediency and not any great public good.

 

[Carl N. Brown]

In articles on New York City's gun laws, the usual number is 25,000 registered handguns for a total population of 8,000,000 people,
Below the cut-off line in the space filler, often ATF and/or NYPD estimate 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 unregistered handguns in NYC.
I am skeptickal that a New Yorker possessing an unregistered handgun for self defense would admit to a pollster that they owned a gun.
I am willing to bet that a criminal possessing an unregistered handgun would not admit owning a gun.

 

[br549arkie]

If you get call from them wanting to do a survey tell them you were trained to divulge info on a need to know basis and they don't need to know.

 

[230RN]

"I'm sorry.... why would I need a gun? This isn't the Wild West anymore."

I usually have fun with regular sales calls. I keep insisting they get off the script and then engage with them with my admittedly bizarre sense of humor. Sometimea I just put the phone down and let them listen to my TV.

I'm not one of those "there ought to be a law" people --far from it --but I sure wish there were some way to firmly teach them the ethics of using someone else's or even a totally fake number to disguise themselves.

Terry, 230RN

 

[PWC]

I don't believe surveys or polls. Took statistics only because I had to. Came away with knowledge that any preconceived outcome can be achieved by limiting possible answers and target population. Interview 10 people with yes/no answer and probability of answer supporting your desired outcome approached 50% or better.

 

[CDW4ME]

To get a reduced rate on my health insurance I have to take a survey; its called a Living Well survey. I call it the Lying Well survey.
I give them the answers they want to see, I get a A on the survey.
If I had to do a survey about guns, I would lie, tell them what I thought they wanted to hear. Guns? What guns? I get a A.

 

[patmccoy]

Bring back the mystery in life, lie to a pollster.

 

[BWS]

I have an Easton baseball bat that identifies as a gun....

 

[AlexanderA]

Estimates of gun ownership are a very important influence in the fate of new gun laws. That is, the higher the percentage of gun ownership, the more hesitant politicians will be to enact new restrictions. So, hiding your ownership by not answering polls, or by lying to the pollsters, while wise on a personal level, may not be to our advantage in the aggregate.

Since the polls are not going to be favorable to us, because of the "shy gun owner" factor, our second-best strategy would be to question the legitimacy of the polls. Which is what we are doing.