Guns and cartridges you expect will be extinct in 30 years

[rule303]

Here is my prediction: In 30 years, most of the cartridges introduced in the last decade will have disappeared. Hardly any of them do anything not already covered by more established rounds.
I would bet money on the .300 Blackout, 6.8SPC, and 6.5 Grendel being collectors items 30 years from now. Ditto to most of the new proprietary hunting rifle cartridges. The WSSM's, Ruger Compact magnums, and Remington SAUM's have already all but disappeared, I am betting the WSM's (with exception of the .300) and Rem Ultra Mags will follow suit.
The .357 Sig and .45 Gap were never widely accepted, and are currently only available due to pressure from two major manufacturers. I think the .40 S&W is starting to fall out of favor, and in 30 years will be about the same status as the .32 ACP is now.
By all accounts, the 16 gauge shotgun should have been extinct 30 years ago, but it has a small but fiercely loyal following that might keep it alive for a few more decades. The 10 gauge is getting less popular every year, and if a less expensive non toxic alternative to tungsten and bismuth shot shows up on the market it will probably go the way of the dinosaur. The 12, 20, 28, and .410 will continue to soldier on, primarily due to target shooters.

 

[mavracer]

Op you should try roaming around and paying attention to other peoples views right here on this site. There are many young shooters who haven't succumbed to the plastic fantastic norm. Many still hold to wood, blued steel, levers and wheels.

Search Smith model 69 and you'll see some excitement for a new revolver.

 

[wow6599]

Nothing will become extinct, not even the DOA 45 GAP.

As we become more and more a global economy, and as we use online purchasing more and more, I think it will be the exact opposite - some old cartridges may rise from the dead and become easier to obtain. To think 30 years is any significant amount of time in the gun world, explain the popularity of the 1911, Hi Power, .30-'06, .357 Magnum, etc., etc..

It's the ebb and flow of what's "in" at that particular moment.

 

[1911Tuner]

Guns don't decompose, and I don't see any of the old standby cartridges that the guns are chambered for going extinct.

The .30-30 is a good example of one that'll be here for another hundred years. There were literally a blue million .30-30 lever-action carbines made in the last century, and there are still a lot of those out there, and the ammunition makers know it.

The .38 Special is another one...for the same reason...but mostly because of all the Model 10s that Smith & Wesson cranked out.

Now, the .45 Gap and the .357 Sig? I wouldn't bet on those being around for another quarter century.

 

[Jim Watson]

You could apply the same logic to the last several years of gimmick rounds like WSM and SAUM and the assorted ways to make your AR MORE DIFFERENT.

A firearm doesn't wear out very fast and there will be some demand for novelty rounds for a long time; just as there is for antiques.

I would hate to have to feed a .41 AE, though; so not everything is "bulletproof."

 

[PowerG]

I've been shooting for about 40 years, and can remember when just a relatively few calibers were commonly encountered. Many more now. I just don't see that trend reversing, some may die off but others will take their place.

Some of the older calibers, 30-30 being just one of them, may be antiquated in terms of the latest and greatest but in the end they work very well in their niche. My caliber of choice when deer hunting here at the house is practically stone age compared to a lot of these calibers (.45/70). For what I do with it I can't imagine anything better. Once these loadings get established and a lot of guns are floating around I think they are here to stay, at least in terms of ammunition availability.

 

[Gun Master]

Extinction, etc.....?

Ten years ago, who would have thought people might be considering "ditching" their .22's, due to an extended period of lack of ammo, or the excessive price thereof. Some of those people, erroneously, believed it spelled the doom of the .22.

 

[mac66]

With the population increasing I think you will see more people getting into shooting. What we see with the current younger generation, having being introduced to shooting because of threat to those rights, is an introduction to the modern sporting rifle. The more they get into it however the more they learn about what came before. I am already seeing increased interest in revolvers. I envision a renaissance as the old becomes new again to the next generations. I think we will see old guns and calibers resurrected and perhaps modernized. Oh, and 30 years isn't really a very long time. I have shoes I still wear that are over 30 years old.

 

[bainter1212]

Not gonna read the whole thread but...

Some calibers that may stop being produced commercially are....

16 gauge: I inherited a 16ga model 11 from my grandfather recently and I am buying as much as I can - I have three hundred rounds and am saving the hulls when I shoot it......almost nobody carries it. Walmart doesnt stock it, so to me that is a death knell.

.284 Winchester: I have a friend who owns a model 88 in .284. It is LIGHTS OUT accurate, but finding loaded ammo or brass is near impossible. So he is husbanding his brass by not shooting it much.

Any non-22LR .22 caliber: More ammo that is hard to find. .22 shorts, .22 of any kind that is not LR.

 

[witchhunter]

I shoot several obsolete cartridges, I don't think they really go extinct if you can hoard a supply of cases. I have to start casting for some that you can't buy bullets for anymore, like one of my favorites the 25/35, but I am getting ready to start casting for it since Hornady discontinued their 117 round nose. But if you reload, you can usually load for almost anything. The 25/35 is 119 years old and no rifles have been chambered for it is probably 50 years. The 30/30 and 45/70 are there too, as well as the 22 Hornet, another of my favorites. sure, I have modern rifles too, but the old stuff I still love.

 

[mavracer]

Last time I was in Cabela's they still have recurve bow and cap and ball revolvers.

 

[hatt]

Seems like all the stuff the 20+ year old gun rags said was dying is still hanging on. Or more popular.

 

[USAF_Vet]

The last three guns that came into my possession, not counting my AR build, have been wood and steel. Marlin 336, SKS, Remington 48. Newest manufacture date was 1973 (Marlin). My wife took the 336 hunting. I'm using my 48 next weekend hunting.

If anything, current market trends show more hunting, more women shooters and a whole new batch of gun owners. While mainstream media may spin their disinformation about these, what I see and have experienced leads me to believe more gun owners will increase the type and style of guns and ammo availability over the next few years. Given the lack of any real federal gun control, and more and more states taking a hard stance on the 2A (one side or the other), It's really a lot more of the status quo. There are battles yet to be fought, on all levels.

 

[Hypnogator]

Now, the .45 Gap and the .357 Sig? I wouldn't bet on those being around for another quarter century.

Probably not as factory cartridges. I can see future gun mag writers publishing articles on how to trim down .45 ACP brass to make .45 GAP, and how to neck down .40 S&W brass to make .357 Sig.

 

[Plan2Live]

7.7 Japanese, .22 short, anything without unique identifiers integrated into the casing and/or primer.

 

[GEM]

During the panic of Chelsea Clinton's election to the Presidency after defeating George P. Bush - 22 LR will cost $5000 a brick. Meanwhile the Glock 94 plasma pistol powered by Mister Fusion will replace the 1911 as the most popular sidearm.

Anyway do you think the SW 356 TSW is extinct now?

 

[Nanook]

Let's see, if I make it that far, I'll be approaching 93. I don't imagine I'd be shooting too much at 93, but people vary.

I'm pretty sure that most of what we're shooting today will be available in a mere 30 years. The military may have some new rifles and sidearms, but they won't filter down to civilians as technology advances. That would be mostly due to government regs rather than loss of interest on the part of civilians.

30 years is approximately half of my life, and I've seen quite a few new cartridges come into being. More than have faded away by far. Even some of the formerly faded have come back to life in that time.

I can't imagine a world without .30-30 rifles or .30-06 either. Not in the US anyway. I don't even hunt, and I own a .30-30. LOL

 

[tark]

If we don't get this nation turned around we won't be allowed to own guns thirty years from now.

 

[45_auto]

If we don't get this nation turned around we won't be allowed to own guns thirty years from now.

Interesting viewpoint. What gun rights do you believe have been diminished this century, besides the usual stupidity in California and New York?

Assault weapon ban is gone, AR15's are all over the place, concealed carry is legal almost everywhere (watch the attached GIF turn blue and green, shows the advance in concealed carry since 1986).

What exactly do you believe needs turning around in regard to firearms laws?

 

[WestKentucky]

History repeats itself. History has shown us that cartridges that die do so very quickly. Right off the bat I'm thinking 32naa, 25naa, 327 fed, 44 special...calibers like those are hard to justify shutting down production of a successful cartridge, changing tooling, and firing back up with a product that will sit on shelves for a long time eating up money in interest, inventory, and loss due to damage/theft/rust. Basically why shut down production of a 40sw gun that moves product to make 357 sig. Why shut down production of a 9mm line to make the same gun in 22tcm? It doesn't make sense unless those cartridges take off quickly and there's a high demand for them. More frames are becoming more and more versatile so it will be even more difficult to justify line time for the oddballs.

 

[kcofohio]

This is a quote from the Hornady's Vol. II, Printed in 1973 under the 223 Remington section:

The prospect of surplus military cartridges and a plentiful supply of once fired military brass for the 223 has encouraged predictions that this round will ultimately surpass the 222 Remington Magnum in popularity. Based on the trend in die sales as reported by several manufacturers, this prediction seems to be coming true. Whether this round will ever catch up with the popularity of the older 222 Remington remains doubtful, however. Factory chambered sporting arms for the 223 are still few and far between; M-16's are never likely to be dumped on the civilian market; and even if they were, they cannot be converted to sporting use as were the Springfields and Mausers of an earlier era.

Even back 40 some years ago, Hornady couldn't fathom what kind of market that the 223 enjoys today.

Interesting exercise in this thread.

Who knows, but maybe within 30 years, somebody will come out with the 9mm Federal cartridge again!

 

[Singletracker]

I see the .17 Mach II going away. makes me sad. It's a fun squirrel getter.

I bought a box of .17WSM without owning the rifle (yea, I like rimfires) but it looks like that one may be going the way of the carrier pigeon before it ever got going.

Maybe optimistic, but I think 300blk will still be around. Suppressors are gaining in popularity and we have seen a least a little movement with loosening laws around them (particularly hunting). There has been so much demand, BATFE has added staff. If there is a shift there, subsonic rounds will have a resurgence.

 

[TennJed]

What? Gun rights are increasing

 

[Tanshanomi]

Why shut down production of a 9mm line to make the same gun in 22tcm? It doesn't make sense unless those cartridges take off quickly and there's a high demand for them.

As of mid-December, Armscor has sold 17,000 .22TCM handguns. I don't know how that compares to other specialized rounds, but, considering that it's been available less than 2-1/2 years, I think that's good enough to count as "taking off quickly." Just as a frame of reference, Armscor sold 70,000 guns total in 2013, so I think it's been worth the trouble to make them.

 

[CraigC]

The old rounds are definitley fading away. That's why Ruger has been building rifles in .250Savage, 9.3x74R, 9.3x62, .450/.400, etc..