Have firearms sales hit saturation point

[justice06rr]

Already did. When I could get a nice PSA AR15 for under $600, it was a no brainer.

My last AR build was $470 total with a PTAC Midlength stainless barreled upper and an Anderson Lower.


I would say the market has bottomed out when AK47's go back down to sub-$400 prices again. Hopefully after christmas..

 

[TRX]

I was reading where Ruger sales and profits in 2014 are taking a drastic 76% downturn as compared to sales through 2013.

Possible, but I expect the numbers don't bear that out.

"First we kill all the lawyers" is a popular sentiment, but once you become familiar with accounting, the lawyers drop in priority...

The American "Generally Accepted Accounting Practices" allow you to do strange and unlikely things with sales, income, debt, and profit figures, particularly when they cross fiscal years. You can be pulling in money so fast you have to get a bigger wheelbarrow to take it to the bank, and legally make it look like you're on the verge of bankrupcy. Conversely, you can be loaded with debt and have no significant earnings, and look like you're in fine shape. And that sort of thing takes in people who are educated and trained to know better.

Some of the finagling has to do with taxes, some to manipulate stock prices, some has to do with seasonal sales, some, heck, I never figured out why.

Unless Ruger has suddenly acquired substantial debt, I doubt their circumstances have changed much. But how the numbers are presented... that depends on what they want to show.

 

[sota]

I'm at least saturated on handguns.
long guns, I'm "collecting" some stripped lowers and will decide to build on them at a future date.

 

[Kynoch]

Possible, but I expect the numbers don't bear that out.

"First we kill all the lawyers" is a popular sentiment, but once you become familiar with accounting, the lawyers drop in priority...

The American "Generally Accepted Accounting Practices" allow you to do strange and unlikely things with sales, income, debt, and profit figures, particularly when they cross fiscal years. You can be pulling in money so fast you have to get a bigger wheelbarrow to take it to the bank, and legally make it look like you're on the verge of bankrupcy. Conversely, you can be loaded with debt and have no significant earnings, and look like you're in fine shape. And that sort of thing takes in people who are educated and trained to know better.

Some of the finagling has to do with taxes, some to manipulate stock prices, some has to do with seasonal sales, some, heck, I never figured out why.

Unless Ruger has suddenly acquired substantial debt, I doubt their circumstances have changed much. But how the numbers are presented... that depends on what they want to show.

LOL!! This isn't about GAAP shenanigans. If it was, S&W's and Ruger's CEOs would already be gone because their stocks are getting pounded due to the drop in sales and revenue. Good grief.

This is about two things. First, by far the biggest issue -- a market that continues to cool off from historic, blisteringly hot demand. Second, manufacturers got caught with a great deal of inventory in the pipeline. That's expensive and even they have admitted that it's not the best "mix" of product to have in the pipeline right now.

It's rather fascinating how some don't want to face the fact that gun prices are beginning to settle down to pre-panic levels due to a drop in sales volume.

 

[Sniper66]

I suspect we are leveling off some....for now. I've always thought there would be, at some point, a glut of used guns being sold by people who thought it would be cool to have guns, but lose interest after a time. I see lots of used guns pass through the local Cabela's used gun counter. It would be interesting to see if used gun sales have increased. I would assume so.

 

[22-rimfire]

My take is that firearm sales are leveling out and dropping a bit which is no big surprise to me considering sales over the last few years were record breaking. I expect things to be flat for about a year until the next presidential race is in full swing and HRC continues to be favored.

With this election happening today, I don't expect to see a big push for gun control issues and those kinds of things definitely spur sales.

 

[goon]

I see used guns on shelves - AR's and everything else (except very few revolvers) - but I'm not buying. Right now, the local prices on used AR's are more than online prices for some decent new rifles. Even new prices vary enough depending on LGS that it pays to shop around.

Having said that, it's possible that innovation may sell some guns. Someone will have to create something new that meets an unmet need. Ruger seems pretty good at this, and though I own no Taurus guns, they seem to be pretty decent at trying new stuff and marketing it. Another idea might be to look for niches where there's a desire, or switch back to things that worked. For example, S&W could probably sell a limited run of .44 Special L Frames, or they could probably bump sales a little if they'd stop putting internal locks in at least some models. I'd love to have a 686+ Mountain Gun with no lock. Ruger could also try a GP-100 with a 7 shot cylinder.

 

[Onward Allusion]

Let's put it this way...Ruger's stock isn't getting killed because of increasing revenues & profits. On the whole, prices are going to further erode in until a month or two before the 2016 primaries. So we have close to 12 months of declining prices. Wait 'til after this Dec...prices are going to be back to pre-panic. All bets are off, however, if there's another Newtown.

BTW...

"First we kill all the lawyers" is a popular sentiment, but once you become familiar with accounting, the lawyers drop in priority...

It's actually, the lawyers do the killing and the accountants & auditors come in afterward to bayonet the dead.

 

[goon]

Actually, lawyers have helped us out quite a bit in some cases.

Heller versus D.C. for instance.

 

[Ignition Override]

Kynoch: That was an excellent point.
I looked up Isla Vista and had forgotten about that mass tragedy. The age of the victims along with the fact that it involved handguns seemed to present a contrast to Newtown.

The most anti-gun politicians seem interested in almost no magazine capacity for handguns and rifles, but for the most part their motivation is based on their fear/hatred of the AR and AK types, is it not?

goon: Hasn't it been demonstrated that "First, we kill all the lawyers" was meant by Shakespeare to be satire? He seems to have been ridiculing the anarchy which would take place.

 

[goon]

I wasn't quoting Shakespeare... just the the people who throw the quote around without thinking very hard about it.

 

[ArfinGreebly]

Saturation?

Not really.

Exceeded the capability of my budget to indulge in the acquisition of "just one more" Precioussss! ... ? Yeah, mostly.

When the money finally shows up and I don't also have a huge backlog of stuff I have to spend it on, then I will officially become unsaturated.

Current economy? Big factor.

I really wish, for the sake of the manufacturers, that I could do my part to keep their annual sales baseline trending upward. And, if we get a spike of prosperity any time soon, I will do my solemn duty in that regard.

 

[Nick Burkhardt]

I am still waiting for Ruger prices to drop to 2010 levels.

 

[Vodoun da Vinci]

When the money finally shows up and I don't also have a huge backlog of stuff I have to spend it on, then I will officially become unsaturated.

Current economy? Big factor.

I think people underestimate just how much "discretionary" income is not available and that the current economy, which is touted to be improving, isn't everywhere improving but continuing to slide. Lot's of folks just plain have no money for anything that isn't food or health insurance or a budgetary essential.

In 2007 I was making $1000 a week making knives and doing custom work on cutlery for other cutlers when the bottom dropped out. I had to go back to a day job I hate to put food on the table and afford healthcare insurance because a significant number of folks who were buying our top end work simply did not have the money.

I thought that was temporary but now I feel that it may never recover to where it was in 2007 and many of the professionals I worked with/for agree with that.

I think the drop in firearm sales is partly due to the fact that folks just can't afford them or can't afford as many.

VooDoo

 

[Omaha-BeenGlockin]

There are a few more guns I want--prices are still too high or what I want isn't available also I need to save up more as the only thing I will ever buy on credit anymore is a house.

I'm in no hurry and will wait until the purchasing situation is right.



I have also passed on several .22 firearms and won't get anything until ammo is available(and cheap) again---what good is a gun they don't have ammo for? Maybe Ruger and S&W should consider using their unused capacity for ammo production.