Help Me Combat This Antigun Argument RE: Australia

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CmdrSlander

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I saw this line of reasoning in an antigun comment on a story about Colorado's gun control law:

The new gun laws in Colorado may not have any impact on street crime and overall gun violence, but the Rocky Mountain State was not besieged by either of those issues. What Colorado did have in abundance was mass shootings. Bans that restrict and ultimately confiscate high capacity magazines and semi autos can and will end mass shootings. Australia has not had a single mass shooting since they reformed their gun laws in this way after Port Arthur. Not one. The debate is about stopping mass shooters and we have ample evidence that banning weapons which are high capacity and imposing, regardless of how effective they might be, deescalates and ultimately ends mass shootings. Street crime can be addressed in other ways, largely by combating poverty, but the best way to end mass shooting virtually overnight is to get mass shooter's weapons of choice - semi automatics with detachable magazines and large capacity pump actions - out of the hands of everyone but the most qualified.

It struck a chord with me because his central data point was indeed correct, {complete and unconstitutional in the US} semi auto bans seem to end mass shootings soon after they are imposed. Help me deconstruct it and counter it please.
 
we have mexico as a neighbor. They have strict gun laws that prohibit certain calibers from civilian use, yet criminals still are able to get a hold of military grade, select fire, weapons. These criminals walk around committing atrocities (mass shootings of innocents, rapes, kidnappings) all the time. The border we have set up is not secure. drugs, people, etc, are smuggled across all the time. we simply don't have the man power, and funding to prevent all of this. if we can't stop people from crossing (with kidnapped victims, drugs) how are we going to stop people from crossing with something smaller than another person (guns)? right now, our government is debating what to do over the budget cuts. automatic spending cuts are about to kick in. that means even less funding to our already strained border security/patrol. meaning crossing with weapons/drugs/sex slaves are even easier. criminals here will always be able to find a semi auto gun (outlawing guns for citizens will inevitably create a firearms black market, leading to more and more guns being smuggled across the border. elementary school kids can buy heroine, coca, etc. what's to stop a full grown psycho from finding a contraband gun?). even if there was a massive buy back, and every gun in legal hands were bought up, australia is an island nation, and alone, with no landlocked neighbors. we on the other hand are not.
 
Another link would be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Australia

Money quote #1: In 2005 the head of the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Don Weatherburn,[34] noted that the level of legal gun ownership in New South Wales increased in recent years, and that the 1996 legislation had had little to no effect on violence. Professor Simon Chapman, former co-convenor of the Coalition for Gun Control, complained that his words "will henceforth be cited by every gun-lusting lobby group throughout the world in their perverse efforts to stall reforms that could save thousands of lives".[35] Weatherburn responded, "The fact is that the introduction of those laws did not result in any acceleration of the downward trend in gun homicide. They may have reduced the risk of mass shootings but we cannot be sure because no one has done the rigorous statistical work required to verify this possibility. It is always unpleasant to acknowledge facts that are inconsistent with your own point of view. But I thought that was what distinguished science from popular prejudice."

Money quote #2: ...a study by McPhedran and Baker compared the incidence of mass shootings in Australian and New Zealand. Data were standardised to a rate per 100,000 people, to control for differences in population size between the countries and mass shootings before and after 1996/1997 were compared between countries. That study found that in the period 1980–1996, both countries experienced mass shootings. The rate did not differ significantly between countries. However since 1996/1997, neither country has experienced a mass shooting event despite the continued availability of semi-automatic longarms in New Zealand. The authors conclude that “the hypothesis that Australia’s prohibition of certain types of firearms explains the absence of mass shootings in that country since 1996 does not appear to be supported… if civilian access to certain types of firearms explained the occurrence of mass shootings in Australia (and conversely, if prohibiting such firearms explains the absence of mass shootings), then New Zealand (a country that still allows the ownership of such firearms) would have continued to experience mass shooting events.”

Lots of hippies like to throw Australia out there, but the facts are the facts. Australia never had high gun crime rates to begin with, and the laws have had no measurable effect beyond feel good anecdotes.
 
By the Australian Governments own website, yes, GUN homocides and GUN suicides are down, allegedly... and pretty much all other violent crime is up.

http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/tandi/341-360/tandi359/view paper.html

Also, the lead sentence on that webpage says:

The public's perception is that violence is increasing, but trends in violent crime reported to police since the early 1990s reveal a mixed story.

So while the public believes they are being victimized by more violence, the EVIDENCE speaks otherwise, oh wait, no, it reveals a "mixed story". Ironically, the ban was enacted in 1996, but the non apples-to-oranges comparison says violent crime since the early 90's, not since 1996.

Following that immediately:

Homicide has decreased by nine percent since 1990

So why go back 6 years before the gun ban, to get a decrease in crime statistics, rather than just since the ban took effect? Doesn't take a genius.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/o...ed-assault-weapons-america-can-too.html?_r=1&

Australia, correctly in my view, does not have a Bill of Rights, so our legislatures have more say than America’s over many issues of individual rights, and our courts have less control.

Can't make this nanny state crap up...
 
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There aren't that many mass shootings to begin with. That's all that you need to point out. I read somewhere that the chance of dying in a mass shooting is equivalent to winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning on the same day.
 
It struck a chord with me because his central data point was indeed correct, {complete and unconstitutional in the US} semi auto bans seem to end mass shootings soon after they are imposed.

Consider how many they had prior to their bans before you decide the argument holds water.

We could pass sweeping bans here in the wake of the theatre, and some lefty could spout off a decade from now "Colorado hasn't had a single mass shooting since the law passed". Guess what? We didn't have one in the 10 years prior to the theatre, either.

You have to determine that there's actually is an epidemic before concluding that measures taken stopped it. And you have to remember that anecdote is not the singular version of data.
 
Who are the most qualified?

Nidal Hasan?
Hasan Akbar?
John Allen Mohammed?
Chrs Dorner?
The cops hunting for Dorner who shot three inoccent people?
The cops in New York who shot 9 innocent people?

I could go on and on and on....
If the populace can't be trusted...then NO ONE can be trusted...
 
Hope This Makes The Point I Intended!

The point is that today we must be able to show the "Anti" that rationalizing crime and criminalizing objects are not only counter productive to society, it is a futile attempt as a solution to a problem.

This is from a book called: "The Protection Of Liberty" 1982
Australia is referenced here too.

"One of the problems faced by liberal societies is that they are highly vulnerable to subversion from within. Persons who are unwilling or unable to promote change by popular acceptance resort to the exploitation of the weaknesses in such societies. In Australia for example, a minority of peace activists endeavor to subvert the national security interests by trespassing and physically obstructing defense installations and arrangements. Development works are obstructed in the name of protecting the environment. Industrial disputes are won by economic disruptions, the creation of disorder and even violence. In most such instances, the activists in fact resort to deliberate, organised and large scale law-breaking in order to achieve political ends. In an autocratic state, such tactics are impossible for they invite swift and brutal repression. In a democracy concerned with due process, it is difficult if not impossible to restrain such measures by regular procedures. The result is often the intimidation of the society as a whole into submission to minority views."

"A society which gives paramount consideration to civil liberties is relatively stultified in its capacity to prevent excesses and to maintain order. The strength of such a society is therefore not its coercive power but the responsibility of its members. Where responsibility is lacking one of two things will happen. The society will gradually lose control or the state will be encouraged into curbing liberties and returning to despotism. It is therefore not incorrect to say that the degree of freedom which obtains in a society will be proportionate to the responsibility, tolerance and restraint shown by its members."
 
Austrailia has a population of 22M. There are no guns on the moon and there are 0 gun deaths on the moon as well. we should all move to the moon.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc
 
five.five.six ... Why not just move all the Anti's to the moon! :evil:

I kinda like guns and Hunting etc. Have not seen nor heard of Deer on the moon?

They can have it, and we can live peaceably, and actually prosecute criminals for a change.
 
What Colorado did have in abundance was mass shootings.

I may be missing an incident from the 80s or something that moves the numbers a bit in one direction or another, but the basic picture is this:

Killed by a mountain lion in Colorado since 1980: 3 persons
Injured by a mountain lion in Colorado since 1980: 9 persons
(Source: www.cougarinfo.org)

Killed in a mass shooting in Colorado since 1980: 28 persons
Injured in a mass shooting in Colorado since 1980: 84 persons
(Source: Pulled from Wikipedia, so may be +/- a person or two)

Killed by lightning in Colorado since 1980 (1980-2011): 91 persons
Injured by lightning in Colorado since 1980 (1980-2011): 411 persons.
(Source: NOAA)

Compare any of the above to Colorado's 161 drunk driving fatalities in just the year 2011 (source: MADD's website).

It may be more fair to say that Colorado has an abundance of hysteria, rather than an abundance of mass shooters or victims.

Australia has not had a single mass shooting since they reformed their gun laws in this way after Port Arthur.

The UK did the same thing, for the same reasons, after the Dunblane Massacre. Like Australia they don't share a thousand mile long porous land border with a third world nation currently in the midst of a literal drug war and are better able to control the importation of illegal firearms and other contraband for this reason. And they had a gun registry before instituting a ban.

. . . and they've still had mass shootings since the post-Dunblane legislation went into place. Fewer than the US, but then the UK has fewer serial killers and such as well, relative to their population. This maybe suggests that just because people are mostly white and talk like us, different nations and cultures are still apples and oranges and what works in one place won't work elsewhere.

As far as guns and the UK and Australia are concerned, the cat was very much still in the bag when they decided to radically restrict access to firearms. There are an estimated 300 million firearms out there in the US, and plenty of folks in Mexico who'd be happy to pack guns in along with their cocaine and heroin if we create a blackmarket for guns.

Without even looking at the ability of persons to now print magazine-ban circumventing magazines on home 3D printers and even fabricate major gun parts on the same, the reality is that the cat is well and truly out of the bag here in the US, the horse left the barn decades ago, and the genie has a restraining order in place against the lamp.

The debate is about stopping mass shooters and we have ample evidence that banning weapons which are high capacity and imposing, regardless of how effective they might be, deescalates and ultimately ends mass shootings.

So there were no mass shootings while the 1994 AWB was in effect?

And there have been no mass shootings where the killer(s) used weapons with legal capacity magazines under the '94 AWB or state level equivalent bans?

If I was trying to argue that line of thinking, I'd not want to scratch my rhetoric too hard lest some facts leak out . . .

Street crime can be addressed in other ways, largely by combating poverty, but the best way to end mass shooting virtually overnight is to get mass shooter's weapons of choice - semi automatics with detachable magazines and large capacity pump actions - out of the hands of everyone but the most qualified.

So now the argument expands, because "high capacity" pump actions are now also terrifying. And hold what? 8 rounds?

Secondly, how will this "virtually overnight" miracle occur when there are literally millions of semi-automatic rifles out there that can accept 15/20/30/whatever round magazines. And let's not even try to wrap our head around how many "high capacity" pump action shotguns (or rifles?) are out there as well.

Confiscation, and potentially triggering a civil war as the nation hashes out what a "Right" as defined by the Bill of Rights really means? That seems a counter productive line of thinking, and Colorado's 278 deaths in the last Civil War (out of a total 1860 population of 34,277) is only a factor of ten worse than the actual body count from mass shooters.

No confiscation? Then the guns will stay in circulation even if someone passed a law saying no more made effective today. So will that actually decrease the number of gun deaths in mass shootings? Maybe slightly, but I'd doubt even that -- the Columbine wonder-twins did not obtain their firearms legally and Adam Lanza obtained his by murdering his mother to get them. Why should we expect future mass killers to color inside the lines because our august and omnipotent elected leaders made a law?

And let's not even get overly analytical about the "most qualified" aspect of the argument. I'm guessing this person uses "most qualified" to mean "those people I expect to do the nasty, heavy lifting of shepherding the flock and killing the dragons while I keep my genteel, pacifistic hands and concious clean."

By that same logic it's worth noting that without much fuss I can find information on the internet concerning how to concoct street drugs, explosives, and all manner of other socially inappropriate things, not to mention dig a little deeper and find child pornography, pornography involving unwilling adult participants, and that sort of thing. As I pointed out in another thread a while back, children in the US are thousands of times more likely to be sexually abused during their childhood than they are to be the victims of a school shooting.

So if our root concern is an "abundance" of a sort of crime, perhaps restricting internet access and other potentially dangerous or criminal expressions of freedom of speech could more profitably be restricted to the "most qualified" to get more bang for our buck, so to speak, in the never ending quest to do what is right for the children (sigh) (TM).

Or there is that pesky stat that six times as many people died in one year in Colorado from DUIs as have died in mass shootings in the last 30 years. Let's note that this is in a state that had mandated "low capacity" beer laws on the books for a very long time now, and obviously that's paying off with only 160-odd deaths in a year. Maybe just doing away with alcohol might make the roads safer . . . yeah but we tried that, and the Colorado electorate has spoken on road safety and operating under the influence, obviously, in their recent decision to legalize another intoxicating and impairing substance.

All these arguments boil down to is that many people are afraid of the things that go bump in the night, and in this modern era those things are spree killers and serial killers/rapists/etc-ists. They don't want to take the equally frightening step of taking responsibility for their own safety, they want someone to do that for them. The anti-gun enthusiasm for banning everything after a tragedy is a net gain of zero yardage for the human race since the residents of Heorot hung Grendel's arm over the front door as a talisman and trophy to show that someone had been willing to face their demons down for them and make them unafraid again. It's illogical, animal thinking that you can't really out argue because it is too simplistic, emotional, and irrational.
 
Presuming for a moment that Australia's gun control laws were, in fact, truly effective, all you have to do is point out that their laws required the outright confiscation of guns from their rightful owners (with a pittance of a payout to "compensate" them) in order to actually be effective.

So, the best counter is to ask them if they're in favor of confiscating the vast majority of firearms currently in private hands.

All you need to do is point out that not even Dianne Feinstein is trying to push through outright confiscation, because even she knows there's no political will for it.

Furthermore, instituting mandatory buy-ups by the government would likely bankrupt the government.

Even assuming that the government was willing to pay a pitiful $1,000 per gun, with 300,000,000 guns in this country, that means it would cost them $300,000,000,000. That's $300 Billion. With a B.

For comparison, that amount would equal just under 3/4 of the amount of money paid out under the TARP program, or the cost of 3 F-35 fighters, 33,300 M1-Abrams tanks, roughly half of what was paid out for social security in 2008, or two Apollo-style trips to the moon and back in 2005 dollars.

In other words, trying to institute Australian-style gun controls in this country would be nearly impossible because a much higher percentage of Americans own guns than Australians ever did, Australian-style gun confiscation won't fly in this country, and even if you had the political will for it, the cost of implementing a similar government buy-up scheme would be ludicrously prohibitive.

The best thing to do in any case is to mock them for wanting to take people's guns away.
 
Even assuming that the government was willing to pay a pitiful $1,000 per gun, with 300,000,000 guns in this country, that means it would cost them $300,000,000,000. That's $300 Billion. With a B.

For comparison, that amount would equal just under 3/4 of the amount of money paid out under the TARP program, or the cost of 3 F-35 fighters, 33,300 M1-Abrams tanks, roughly half of what was paid out for social security in 2008, or two Apollo-style trips to the moon and back in 2005 dollars.
It's like 3½ Seqiesters. Tell him that, Libs hate sequesters.
 
So, the best counter is to ask them if they're in favor of confiscating the vast majority of firearms currently in private hands.

All you need to do is point out that not even Dianne Feinstein is trying to push through outright confiscation, because even she knows there's no political will for it.

Furthermore, instituting mandatory buy-ups by the government would likely bankrupt the government.

And that turns a mostly-2nd Amendment argument into a rather broader one concerning the federal government's authority concerning search and seizure, inter and intrastate commerce, etc. The phrase unintended consequences comes to mind rather immediately with that whole line of argument.
 
I'm done arguing with antis. It's the second item in the Bill of Rights. It's that important that our fore fathers put it that high on the list. Anyone that wants to abolish a constitutional right is a short sighted nitwit. Disarming this generation or the next might not have a huge impact on our society but what about decades down the road after the liberals have trashed the US economy? What if the infrastructure collapses from such frivolous spending? How about a major disaster that wipes out a third of the population? It would be anarchy in our streets with only the UN to step in and save us. Do we dare trust foreigners to get us back on our feet? We're really only one catastrophe away from such a scenario. Call me a tin foil hat wearing paranoid but societies collapse all the time. Who's to say ours is immune?


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I'm done arguing with antis. It's the second item in the Bill of Rights. It's that important that our fore fathers put it that high on the list. Anyone that wants to abolish a constitutional right is a short sighted nitwit. Disarming this generation or the next might not have a huge impact on our society but what about decades down the road after the liberals have trashed the US economy? What if the infrastructure collapses from such frivolous spending? How about a major disaster that wipes out a third of the population? It would be anarchy in our streets with only the UN to step in and save us. Do we dare trust foreigners to get us back on our feet? We're really only one catastrophe away from such a scenario. Call me a tin foil hat wearing paranoid but societies collapse all the time. Who's to say ours is immune?


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I don't see how any of this should discourage you from arguing with anti-gunners. If anything, it should make you try everything you can to convince them.

So what that our right to keep and bear arms is guaranteed by the Constitution? It's been made perfectly clear that many politicians have nothing but disdain for the document. It is for that reason that it is vital that we convince as many people as is possible to continue supporting our rights, so that way it never seems "safe" for politicians to move ahead with unconstitutional laws.

It's that important that our fore fathers put it that high on the list. Anyone that wants to abolish a constitutional right is a short sighted nitwit.

No argument here, but at least make an effort to show them the error of their ways. If people keep flying under the flag of "I'm done arguing, it's my right" the only thing the people on-the-fence are going to see are a bunch of anti-gunners making their irrational emotional arguments with no opposition and nothing but support from the main-stream media.
 
^^^^ It's the antis that make the emotional and irrational arguments. Our side has plenty of facts to support the 2A but most antis don't want to listen. Those are the ones I'm through arguing with. Anyone sitting on the fence I'll be more than happy to carry on a rational thought provoking conversation with.


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When the debate with an anti gets down to 2A the ones I have dealt with refuse to believe 2A is about tyranny. The discussion is over even if I quote the 2nd amendment and ask them what a "free state" means to them. They stick their head in the ...sand.. end of discussion.

Resistance to tyranny is way too uncomfortable for them to even contemplate.

.
 
^^^^ It's the antis that make the emotional and irrational arguments. Our side has plenty of facts to support the 2A but most antis don't want to listen. Those are the ones I'm through arguing with. Anyone sitting on the fence I'll be more than happy to carry on a rational thought provoking conversation with.


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I'm not sure if you thought I meant that our side makes emotional and irrational arguments, but I was saying that the anti-gunners use nothing but irrational arguments, and that it is necessary to prove those wrong.

The thing about this fight is that you have to be willing to debate with those who don't listen. It doesn't matter how many rational and logical conversations you have with people on-the-fence if you're not willing to prove the anti's faulty logic wrong. You just need to show people that there is opposition to what the anti-2a politicians are saying.

As I said, if nobody is arguing against the faulty logic the anti's spew out it will be seen by those who don't have a clear side as pro-gunners losing the argument.

To clear something up, I'm not saying call up an anti-gunner and have a debate, I'm saying argue with them in a public medium, so that way people can be exposed to our arguments as well as the anti's.
 
I would have to ask her/him, if they had ever thought of how many people were harmed or fatally injured due to the ban in Australia
Or Australia aside, has anyone considered other impacts of such restrictions here. All we have heard is, " If we can save just one life.".
The problem underlying is that in order to safe that one life ,assuming that firearm restrictions would, how many others have become more endangered due to lack of personal protection caused by said restrictions?
In order to have a proper conclusion one must have weighed all areas of impact. This is an area that is hard to gauge as it is impossible to know if a victim would have chosen to arm if it was available to them. The only venue we have for this is overall violent crime stats.
Fact; people use semi autos to protect themselves and there family.
^^^^ This being known, to take these semi autos away will have a measurable effect. Legislation that would ban semi-autos in order to keep what is statistically a white wale away, would have a larger negative impact on fatality numbers from domestic crime, than what you could expect to be positive decrease in mass shooting victims.
To propose such bans without doing the considering studies here in our demographic is wreckless. It may very well cause loss of more lives than it saves.
 
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