I'm hesitant to even ask this question

[tarosean]

I think the market is too saturated. Even if there is another stupid panic run. The panic buyers already picked one or more up, or lost their rears trying to sell afterwards.

while there are new shooters entering the sport daily, most 18yr olds cannot afford 2k plus for an overpriced gun.

 

[tcoz]

I'm gonna switch direction a bit now. I spent some time trying to decide which modern firearm would best fit my criteria. First, it has to be something that I would love to own myself but can't really justify purchasing just for the enjoyment of it. Secondly, it would have to be desirable, saleable and offer some exclusivity to the person with the means to purchase it. Thirdly, it would have to hold it's value.

What I came up with is the FN SCAR 16s. The reason for the 16s rather than the 17s is that I feel the 5.56 appeals to more shooters than the .308 and also the price is somewhat less.

My only concern is that the current retail and street prices might come down some in the not too distant future.

So, I've made the decision. Now, what say you?

 

[jrdolall]

There are plenty of ways to make money on solid assets like guns, cars, washing machines, etc. The old trick is that it is very difficult to guess which item will give you the return you are looking at. If it was easy then major investors would buy high end AR's and wait. I don't think they are doing that.
Any time you choose to make an investment in an item with a big upside then you accept a big down side. What is the market for high end AR's? Most people that can afford them probably already have them so unless you get the "Holy Grail" your target demographic will be small.
Find a local family company that is cash strapped and loan them money at a decent rate. Keep your exposure small and penalties for late payments high. I have done this with two companies and have supplemented my income considerably for the past five years though I have had to sweat a few times. You can lose your money with pretty much any investment so investing limited reserves in an iffy proposition isn't normally a wise course.

 

[Fremmer]

That's a high risk investment with no annual yield.
Wanna play with commodities? Try gold. Good luck....

Edited to add: and if the purchase money comes from a tax-deferred account, you'll incur taxes to get the funds, you'd better watch your tax bracket. Careful!

 

[Telekinesis]

The thought occurred to me the other day to take $2-3k of my retirement funds...

First, it has to be something that I would love to own myself but can't really justify purchasing just for the enjoyment of it.

[...]

What I came up with is the FN SCAR 16s.

[...]

So, I've made the decision. Now, what say you?

If you want to buy a toy that you can't afford with your normal retirement income and justify it as an "investment" so you can pilfer your 401k, don't let us stop you.

You are *barely* qualifying as a speculator. Your market will be small and the weapon may be over valued by retailers (as seen by your worry that prices will fall shortly, leading us to believe that the rifle is currently over valued in market terms) and as already explained, during a panic the prices of premium rifles rise at a lower rate than budget rifles and other components.

The fact that you're looking for a toy and not an investment is evident in the fact that you have dismissed the recommendations of lower quality ARs, receivers, and magazines, all of which are more liquid AND showed a higher rate of return in previous panics.

I'm sorry if I sound harsh. Buy the gun. Hell, use your retirement plan to do so. But just go into it with a clear understanding that what you're doing is not a sound investment practice.

 

[Corn-Picker]

There are many non-recoverable costs with buying and selling physical items. Let's say you want to buy 30 round magazines, wait for a panic, and sell them on ebay. You pay tax and shipping on the magazines, and then when you sell them on ebay you'll lose 10%+ in fees and another 10%+ in shipping costs and Paypal fees.. There's also the hold period with high opportunity costs, while you wait for a panic your money is tied up while it could be earning interest in the market.

Think about it this way, if you were to buy magazines and sell them today you would probably make 70 or 75 cents on the dollar. That means that panic prices have to be 135 cents on the dollar before you can break even, let alone make it worth your time.

 

[eastbank]

in the last 50 years i have never lost a penny and as a matter of fact made a great deal of money by buying older winchester rifles and antique colt revolvers and all the while useing them to hunt with and shoot. case in point i bought a antique 1886 in 45-90 special order rifle in ex condition for 800.00 and i sold it 8 years later for 3000.00 and a antique colt 45 colt revolver bought for 1600.00 and sold several years later for 2500.00. it has gotten harder to find good firearms at good prices, but i think they are better investments than any AR,s. eastbank.

 

[BSA1]

only to bring it out close to or just after the election next November to sell it when/if there's another buying frenzy, prices skyrocket and supplies become scarce.

In brokerage terms this is known as “chasing the market.” You are making a investment in product after the market has peaked hoping for a future peak again.

You do not state what the rate of return (Profit) you want to make. As other are pointing out there are lots of products that will give you a high rate of return. For example; consider the price of AR lowers. At the last gun show in my area Anderson Lower Receivers were selling for $60.00. In the event of a Clinanic and AR demand suddenly spikes again I can reasonably expect to sell the lowers for $180.00 thus doubling my return.

However even AR Lowers is a small market. It would appeal mainly to those that want to build their own gun. A much broader market would be selling .223 ammunition as there are other firearms the use this cartridge. Case lot of brass reloadable .223 is going for .38 cents (or cheaper) a round. Gunpowder and primers are a much broader market.

So, I've made the decision. Now, what say you?

When it comes down to it one AR or >name your favorite< is really all someone really needs. But everyone needs more than one bullet.

 

[clearcut]

Off toppic? No one is making any more gold you know ar's are being made all the time.
CC

 

[jrdolall]

in the last 50 years i have never lost a penny and as a matter of fact made a great deal of money by buying older winchester rifles and antique colt revolvers and all the while useing them to hunt with and shoot. case in point i bought a antique 1886 in 45-90 special order rifle in ex condition for 800.00 and i sold it 8 years later for 3000.00 and a antique colt 45 colt revolver bought for 1600.00 and sold several years later for 2500.00. it has gotten harder to find good firearms at good prices, but i think they are better investments than any AR,s. eastbank

This is absolutely true but it doesn't really make the guns an "investment" where you are buying with the intention of supplementing your income. I agree that many guns do appreciate in value as I have several older Colts that are quite valuable. I also have quite a few older rifles and shotguns that have virtually zero resale value.

Many people consider their home to be a financial investment, and in some cases that is the case, but a "home" isn't really designed to be an investment. A lot of people lost their behinds "investing" in a home a few years ago.

I expect my investments to give me a regular routine and try to invest in stocks that pay decent dividends. I am looking for supplemental income and not to hit a home run so I take out as much risk as possible when I buy into any investment opportunity. Putting a chunk of cash ("chunk" is different for all of us) into something that will not give me any return for possibly a long time isn't prudent investing because my money is just sitting in a closet waiting for the right time to cash in. There are plenty of stocks available that pay 4% quarterly and are pretty rock solid. I personally would rather have an extra $20 a week than an extra $1k once a year because I will blow the extra $1k while the extra $20 just kind of blends in.

If you have extra money that you need to "invest" then I see a lot better ways than buying a gun. Now if you can pick up some quality collectors pieces like Eastbank then that is a whole different ballgame.

 

[Ed Ames]

So, I've made the decision. Now, what say you?

Are you a hunter?

I ask because there are a lot of people who didn't grow up hunting and would probably pay $200+ for a first timer squirrel hunt.

...and I doubt you will net $200 on your rifle.

Print out cards for hunter safety instructors to give out if students ask. Scout out local public land areas or make deals with local outfitters for small game leases. Take adults who have never been hunting and aren't sure where to start, but think they should, for a first small game hunt or a practice scout ahead of deer season.

Honestly if you want some retirement income from guns, take the price of that rifle and use it to become an nra certified instructor. Offer classes either through a local shop or independently. It won't make you rich but it will return more than a single speculation rifle.

 

[MistWolf]

In every ban & panic, the AR that brought the best money has always been the Colt 6920. Prices are better on 6920s now than they have been for a long time. Buy'm Cheap- Stack'm Deep

 

[plexreticle]

My thinking was just to buy one single higher end gun that I would like to own, sit on it for a year or so to see what happens and then possibly sell it for a nice profit. If not, I'd still have a gun that I want to own and that would not likely be worth less than I paid for it. I have no desire to start buying and selling them and become a dealer. Some people expressed surprise that I would consider a high end AR rather than an inexpensive one which might be easier to sell. As I said, it would have to be something that I really would like to own myself and I'm not looking to own a $500 AR.

Most people that want ARs have them, I think they are a poor choice if you want to turn a profit. AR prices have not kept up with inflation by a long shot and they are still being cranked out by dozens of makers. Many of the so called high end AR's makers use premium pricing strategy, the value is subjective and market is much smaller.

I love AR's but, I feel there are way better options if you want to store your wealth or make an investment.

 

[MIL-DOT]

I think the market is too saturated. Even if there is another stupid panic run. The panic buyers already picked one or more up, or lost their rears trying to sell afterwards.

while there are new shooters entering the sport daily, most 18yr olds cannot afford 2k plus for an overpriced gun.

I agree completely. Plus, after what we've seen already, there are now a ton of folks that are actively preparing to capitalize on any future panics. Nobody is getting caught with their pants down next time around.
But, I think certain calibers of ammo could be a winner, like 9mm,.45, 5.56.
But if the OP is dead-set on buying Ar15's as a post-panic investment, I think a few S&W M&P Sports, while they can be found for $539 delivered, would be as good as you're gonna get. You get a very inexpensive rifle, that is of solid quality, and huge name recognition. That's win/win/win.
All that being said, we have to at least CONSIDER the possibility (inevitability,IMO) that one of these times, it isn't going to be a false alarm, that they're really going to successfully felonize the whole shebang, and I know I don't want to get stuck with a closet full of un-sellable instant felonies.

 

[50 Shooter]

BSA1, if he's selling ammo he'll need a license and have to have insurance. So that's not better then buying lowers or complete rifles to flip for a profit.

I agree with the crowd that says to buy lowers and flip them at the right time but this will mean that you have to pay close attention to the market. The average price seems to be about $60 on lowers that aren't from Colt, Armalite... So if you buy 30 for about $2,000 after taxes and all. If they double in price you get a good return, if they triple then you make out like a fat cat.

Even stripped lowers will go up in price, the last panic proved that month after month. Heck you could save one and then put it together however you want to. Just buy all the parts now so that you don't get stuck paying three times the cost.

As for the SCAR, better start looking for one now if you plan on doing this. Check the for sale ads here and on other boards as buying from a private party is better as you can haggle the price. If you go to gun broker, you have to fight other people that want it for the same reason or just to have one. Some people get so caught up in bidding that they end up paying more then the price you could get it for at the LGS.

 

[jrdolall]

If I were going to buy guns as an investment and I planned to hold on until the next panic then I would probably go this week and buy several low end AR's or AK's with extra "hi cap" magazines. Maybe DPMS or any of the $500-$600-ish guns. I considered doing this towards the end of the last panic but never pulled the trigger.
These are the guns that will be in the most demand if we have another panic like the last one. Lots of people in the market and at the lower end of the market (whatever the market might be) more people will be able to handle your guns. IF you had been in this situation in 2012 and had 5 DPMS low end AR's in the closet you could have sold them easily for $1200 each. If you don't see another panic then you can still sell them fairly easily and at least recoup your investment, or come close. With a single, high end gun that would be more difficult because the target audience is much smaller.

 

[X-Rap]

IMO, put $1000 into a useful package, gun, mags, ammo, even a cleaning kit.
You should be able to get a gun for around $5-6 hundred, 1000 rds for around $300 and 10 magazines for about $100 add a $50 for a cleaning kit and a case and you should be able to double your money fairly easily in a panic similar to what we've seen.
Many are missing the need to offer more than just a gun, at the peak of the 22lr shortage a 550 box that cost $20 bucks would sell a rifle or pistol just because the buyer wanted the ammo.

 

[tcoz]

Thanks for your honest and thoughtful posts. Lots of good ideas and a lot for me to think about.

 

[Tcruse]

Your .22LR example is certainly true, but a very special case. Now, that .22LR is available, it is likely that the price will return eventually. If you take the case of 9mm, it too had a price spike, short supply, however, it has returned to the pre-Sandy Hook price and maybe a bit lower in some places.

 

[Lycidas Janwor]

Ok guys, now don't destroy me over this one. I'm asking a legit question and would like to hear some thoughtful (on-topic) responses..

I'm 65 y.o., have been semi (actually 3/4) retired for a couple of years and I have my retirement funds in extremely conservative investments which aren't earning squat but are extremely safe.
The thought occurred to me the other day to take $2-3k of my retirement funds and buy a "top of the line" AR, leave it boxed, don't shoot it, and stick it in the safe, only to bring it out close to or just after the election next November to sell it when/if there's another buying frenzy, prices skyrocket and supplies become scarce. This isn't a political discussion but Hillary has already said that gun control will be part of her platform so if she's elected or even if it looks like she will be, I think prices will again jump way up, hopefully temporarily. I've never bought or sold a firearm to flip it and make a profit and I've never been a real investor, but I feel that even if things go differently and we don't have another gun control scare, I'll have a very nice AR that won't go down in value, especially considering the prices they're selling for right now. I wouldn't consider this unethical or trying to profit off others misfortune. I would consider it the same way anyone considers an investment in which you attempt to "buy low, sell high". My choice would be something like DD, Noveske, POF, LWRC.

So, I'd like your honest thoughts about this. I'm not interested in a discussion of the merits of one particular brand over another but if you'd like to comment on the general thought of high end vs middle of the road, that's ok. I'm not, however interested in something that I would spent $500 on and turn around and sell for $1200. Also, a discussion of caliber choice might be interesting but I'm leaning toward 5.56 because of its general appeal and its lower cost compared to other calibers.

I posted this in "Rifle Country" because I'm considering doing this specifically with an AR and because this is where I spend most of my time, hence I'm more familiar with the regular posters. The comments I receive will go a long way towards helping me make my decision.
Thanks everyone.

I'd buy 3-4 ARs from a reputable manufacturer instead of one high end AR. If you buy a $700 AR (lets say a Colt) and can turn around and sell it for $2k, and you have 3-4 of these Colt ARs sitting around:

mission accomplished.

 

[Sheepdog1968]

Buy 3 or 4 hundred magazines and have no issues worrying over FFL laws.
Kind of a self defeating way to make money though.
The big gamble is how any law you anticipate is written, it may be in such a way as you can't transfer within your state.
That is the way the new magazine law was written in Colorado.

I like this. There will be another run on guns. There always is. Magazines are hard to come by during the runs. Heck, you can buy Brownell 30 round ar mags for $10. I would bet you could easily sell them for $30 or $50 a piece. Ive got some mags from firearms I no longer own that I'm holding off on selling till the next gun scare. The other big question is how much of your portfolio does this speculation represent? If it's a very small single digit or sub 1 percent, why not. Also, if you have the time and patience, get bulk packs of 22LR from wallmart. You can probably find 500 round packs for $20ish from time to time. When the next run comes you can likely triple your money. Good luck.

 

[Sunray]

Doubt you'd see enough of a price increase in that short time to justify the purchase. Firearms are a good investment, but only over a fairly long time and only if the firearm is out of production like a milsurp.
When our lot copied the ATF's dogma of 'Once and MG always an MG', the semi'd Winchester M-14 I bought years earlier instantly lost value(paid $600Cdn in the mid 80's) and a market. Same thing applied to any such rifle. Values tanked or stayed the same.
My 1903A4, that I paid $175Cdn for in the early 80's, on the other hand has sky rocketed in value. Ditto for the M1 Rifle I bought even earlier. Been kicking myself for not buying the 'C' or 'D' that were selling for about $250Cdn in the 90's. Shoot left.

 

[Sol]

If your going to gamble on the bet that a certain gun type is going to be banned I would choose QUANTITY over QUALITY. Ammo and mags are a good investment* too.

*Buying guns, ammo and accesories probably isn't a wise investment as a whole, but if you're going to do it.... cover your market.

 

[DRYHUMOR]

I would let the quantity counts on Gunbroker guide you a bit, a few searches will show what firearms there is a glut of, but also which ones are selling and at what price point.

Many ARs or AR types that sold during the last debacle were sold because they were a "type" not a name. I saw SCARS sell for big money along with most everything else.

Never count on a panic to come along when you need to sell, count on quality selling itself when you are ready to sell.

 

[Reloadron]

Ok guys, now don't destroy me over this one. I'm asking a legit question and would like to hear some thoughtful (on-topic) responses..

I'm 65 y.o., have been semi (actually 3/4) retired for a couple of years and I have my retirement funds in extremely conservative investments which aren't earning squat but are extremely safe.
The thought occurred to me the other day to take $2-3k of my retirement funds and buy a "top of the line" AR, leave it boxed, don't shoot it, and stick it in the safe, only to bring it out close to or just after the election next November to sell it when/if there's another buying frenzy, prices skyrocket and supplies become scarce. This isn't a political discussion but Hillary has already said that gun control will be part of her platform so if she's elected or even if it looks like she will be, I think prices will again jump way up, hopefully temporarily. I've never bought or sold a firearm to flip it and make a profit and I've never been a real investor, but I feel that even if things go differently and we don't have another gun control scare, I'll have a very nice AR that won't go down in value, especially considering the prices they're selling for right now. I wouldn't consider this unethical or trying to profit off others misfortune. I would consider it the same way anyone considers an investment in which you attempt to "buy low, sell high". My choice would be something like DD, Noveske, POF, LWRC.

So, I'd like your honest thoughts about this. I'm not interested in a discussion of the merits of one particular brand over another but if you'd like to comment on the general thought of high end vs middle of the road, that's ok. I'm not, however interested in something that I would spent $500 on and turn around and sell for $1200. Also, a discussion of caliber choice might be interesting but I'm leaning toward 5.56 because of its general appeal and its lower cost compared to other calibers.

I posted this in "Rifle Country" because I'm considering doing this specifically with an AR and because this is where I spend most of my time, hence I'm more familiar with the regular posters. The comments I receive will go a long way towards helping me make my decision.
Thanks everyone.

Leave your money where it is and be happy. I don't care if it is AR lowers or complete ARs investing in them is a crap shoot. Take the lower return low risk approach at your age.

I am the same age as you. I retired completely at age 63 a few years ago. My wife, 2 years my senior, retired when I did at 65. We have managed over the years considerable investments. We both draw pensions plus our social security. The investments are left alone unless we decide we want to yank some bucks and do something fun. Read into this we are set till we are dead so I have no reason to look for anything higher risk.

Your bucks so do as you please but no way will I look to get greedy now. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. Yeah, hindsight is always 20/20.

Ron