Invited to write for an anti-gun blog

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IIRC, the more violent deaths per capita is documented supposedly in Steven Pinker's book.

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined

Quote from a review: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/...-our-nature-by-steven-pinker-book-review.html

Pinker begins with studies of the causes of death in different eras and peoples. Some studies are based on skeletons found at archaeological sites; averaging their results suggests that 15 percent of prehistoric humans met a violent death at the hands of another person. Research into contemporary or recent hunter-gatherer societies yields a remarkably similarly average, while another cluster of studies of pre-state societies that include some horticulture has an even higher rate of violent death. In contrast, among state societies, the most violent appears to have been Aztec Mexico, in which 5 percent of people were killed by others. In Europe, even during the bloodiest periods — the 17th century and the first half of the 20th — deaths in war were around 3 percent. The data vindicates Hobbes’s basic insight, that without a state, life is likely to be “nasty, brutish and short.” In contrast, a state monopoly on the legitimate use of force reduces violence and makes everyone living under that monopoly better off than they would otherwise have been. Pinker calls this the “pacification process.”

His book is controversial to say the least.

About the line above that most people died at the hands of their communist governments, I might suggest a return to the history books. Millions died at the hands of others (forget WWII?). Not the just the Germans but millions in China due to the Japanese and even in India due to British Imperial policies.

About whether guns cause violence, the usual mantra is that people kill, guns are just tools. The counter argument (presented for your eddification) is that the presence of a firearm primes aggression. Makes you more prone to aggressive ideation and action. Now, not to present a lit review, but the research is controversial in lab settings and the transfer of lab findings and their ecological validity to the real world is debated in on going meta-analyses.

A version of this is that guns being a distance weapon make it more likely to use them. Personal violence is difficult for people but distance makes it easy. To give an extreme example, if I told you that if you set this 8 year old girl in front of you on fire, you will end the war - you might have difficult doing that. Setting her on fire from a B-29, easier to do.

Violence and aggression are complex. We have socialized and biological forces that interact. Most arguments turn to cliches.
 
I can tell you that I have been told historians generally agree that more people were murdered in the 20th century than in every other century combined.

That would make sense.

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That’s likely misleading data though as the percentage of the population would be more accurate.

There are also sources for data that predates this Country’s existence that contradicts that statement, when total population is taken into account, as a ratio per 100,000.

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1% of 100 is 1, 1% of a billion is 10 million.

However, like I said, facts are the enemy of the progressive liberal. Show that data to your “historian” buddy’s and they will just move on to another talking point.
 
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Some person wanting to take what another has has existed since there were more than two and it's not going to change. It may be one on one, family against family, tribe on tribe, or nation on nation. Man has been killing and maiming his neighbor for all kinds of reasons since time began with what ever means was available. The quest has always been to have a better weapon than your neighbor hence the progression from rocks to firearms.


When you weed out the naive that think when guns are gone that violence will cease to exist (it won't) the objective is power especially when it is government that wants to do away with civilians owning guns and this includes city, county, state, and federal government.
 
To play the devil’s advocate that’s an interesting question, to be honest “better” is quiet a broad question. I can tell you that I have been told historians generally agree that more people were murdered in the 20th century than in every other century combined.

That's a function of population size, nothing else. Murder* rates were higher in the past. Much, much higher if by "murder" we mean (as the term necessarily implies) intra-societal homicide (i.e., excluding state-sanctioned/driven war).
 
The person who runs the blog said my comments on government held no interest for him. I told him "Of course they didn't. Where you live in New Zealand the power of the government is a settled question."

I think all of the things you mention are areas we need to address as a society. Sometimes our attempts, decent as they've been, can easily create more problems than they've solved. I stop short at equating poverty with criminality, and I don't think you meant that either. Most poor people are decent.


Regarding poverty and crime, thank you for not putting words in my mouth. I agree that it's much more nuanced than that. We lived in a trailer park when I was born, and I'll never shake the feeling of the problems my family had to solve when I was a kid -- avoiding eviction, risking everything for dad to start a business, making sure we got fed. Today my biggest problems are miniscule compared to that -- deciding what I want to have for lunch, hoping I can wrap up work in time to make it to the gym, etc. But when you have the first problem set of surviving, you think short-term and feel vulnerable. When people are in that circumstance, good though they may be crime starts to feel for some like it could be a better alternative than to not commit the crime.

All of that to say that I agree "poor" =! "criminal", but there is a correlation and there are reasons for that correlation.

I personally continued the climbing started by my parents by joining the military, then going to college on a GI Bill scholarship. Who's to say where I could have ended up without those opportunities, but I think the odds are that my life is better for having had them.
 
The counter argument (presented for your eddification) is that the presence of a firearm primes aggression. Makes you more prone to aggressive ideation and action. Now, not to present a lit review, but the research is controversial in lab settings and the transfer of lab findings and their ecological validity to the real world is debated in on going meta-analyses.

Must explain why shooting competitions so frequently turn into round-robins of violent chaos.
 
The only place where the technology argument holds water is how it pertains to mass shootings, not the average homicide.

We have technology that can eliminate significant amounts of the worlds population in mere seconds. This technology is not controlled by any individual though. However, technology that one individual can possess, when the right circumstances are in play, can devastate a relatively small area.

Let’s face it, politicians don’t care about violence in the cities and they only seem to care about the “mass shooting” type of murders. In these relatively rare occurrences under the circumstances of large amounts of unarmed people then yes, tools and technologies can make a difference.

Cutting to the chase though, I don’t think any extra laws are going to make a difference under these circumstances. Even if they do, it will only cut down on a small fraction of homicides per year.
 
The only place where the technology argument holds water is how it pertains to mass shootings, not the average homicide.

Given that trucks and arson/fire have been used to commit mass murders with higher body counts than any mass shooting, it doesn't really hold much water there, either. And that's without throwing in improvised explosives of any sort or hijacked airplanes, which might be considered beyond the capability of most lone actors.

I pray that the murder-inclined lunatics never figure out that a few lengths of chain, some cheap padlocks, a jerry can of gasoline, and a few matches could easily, easily, easily be used to kill many, many, many people in a horrific fashion.

Attacking the technology is almost never the right strategy... there are just too many good substitutes (in the economics sense).
 
Must explain why shooting competitions so frequently turn into round-robins of violent chaos.

I have discussions with the researchers who claim guns produce aggression and have mentioned that fights at gun matches are rare. I even reached out to match directors and found few reports of such. Also, the crime rate of LTC, CCW types is an order of magnitude less than the general population or police. However, the licensed carry types go through background checks so are a pre-selected population slice. The competitors at IDPA, USPSA, steel, CAS, I-CORE, etc are also pretty self-selected to be law abiding.

The low violence rates in Switzerland with the presence of military weapons in household argues against guns priming aggression as a powerful and overwhelming cause of violence.

If you have a shattered culture, the availability of implements might suggest their use. Massacres using machetes and large knives were used in African Rwandan genocides, IIRC.

Does having a gun make impulse aggession more likely or a suicide? That is an argument that is made. Maybe true in specific cases. However, the larger problems such as gang violence is driven by economic inequality - societal failure, which if left long enough in place, breaks down cultural constraints. Good culture, good jobs for males - violence decreases.

Violence and aggression is multicausal - the anti gun folks suggest that the gun itself is the driving force as some kind of Svengali like evil attractor. That's not true. Does gun presence ease violence if the factors for it are present? That may happen. Just as behavioral contagion of using trucks for mass attacks will increase as they are seen in more incidents. However, the utility of firearms and trucks, suggest that banning them isn't the solution.
 
I have discussions with the researchers who claim guns produce aggression and have mentioned that fights at gun matches are rare.

Beyond "rare." I have seen very heated discussions between, say, 1) a competitor who has invested hundreds, or even thousands, of dollars in match fees on a major USPSA match and 2) a range officer who has ruled against them on something, including outright DQ's that throw them out of the match and forfeit their results and their entry fees and any other investment they made. Really, really heated discussions where people's integrity, commitment, passion, and money are all tied up in it together. Yet these things never come to blows, much less people pulling the guns that are literally on their hip.

I really wish more of the "gun safety" researchers would spend time hanging with actual "gun people" at ranges.
 
IIRC, the more violent deaths per capita is documented supposedly in Steven Pinker's book.

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined

Quote from a review: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/...-our-nature-by-steven-pinker-book-review.html



His book is controversial to say the least.

About the line above that most people died at the hands of their communist governments, I might suggest a return to the history books. Millions died at the hands of others (forget WWII?). Not the just the Germans but millions in China due to the Japanese and even in India due to British Imperial policies.

About whether guns cause violence, the usual mantra is that people kill, guns are just tools. The counter argument (presented for your eddification) is that the presence of a firearm primes aggression. Makes you more prone to aggressive ideation and action. Now, not to present a lit review, but the research is controversial in lab settings and the transfer of lab findings and their ecological validity to the real world is debated in on going meta-analyses.

A version of this is that guns being a distance weapon make it more likely to use them. Personal violence is difficult for people but distance makes it easy. To give an extreme example, if I told you that if you set this 8 year old girl in front of you on fire, you will end the war - you might have difficult doing that. Setting her on fire from a B-29, easier to do.

Violence and aggression are complex. We have socialized and biological forces that interact. Most arguments turn to cliches.
My point was that most people have been killed by governments. Communist or otherwise.
 
My point was that most people have been killed by governments. Communist or otherwise.

That's true, but a great many Americans have the view that a liberal democratic republic, like ours, could "never" turn on civilians in a massive way. At least not today. Regardless of whether that is right or wrong, it is a huge ideological lift to convince them that there is a real thread of mass violence by the government that could be countered by guns. And that they should be more afraid of that than they are of plain old civilian-committed murder. Given the present realities and most American's lived experiences, it is certainly the case that for most Americans they are more likely to be murdered by a non-state actor than by the state. In short: you're not likely to persuade very many people who aren't already on your side with that argument.

On the other hand, pointing out the strong historical evidence that weapon technology has never been a predictor of levels of intra-societal violence has the potential to be very powerful. Most people have the empirically-wrong assumption that the world was less violent before guns. Showing them that this basic assumption is contrary to the historical evidence can really jolt some of the underlying assumptions that people make along their way to believing that gun control would be an effective way to reduce crime.
 
Politicians and activists are primarily concerned about weapons being used against them or to enable people to resist them.
"Increased crime", "mass shootings" and such are merely the excuse for them to do what they want to do - render themselves safe from those who would wish to resist the wills of the politicians and activists.
 
I am ashamed to admit that my wife and I can sometimes be extremely volatile and tempestuous. I have had some horrendous fights with her with a gun right on my hip and not once have I ever had the most fleeting thought of so much as raising so much as a finger to her, let alone shooting.

We're talking door slamming, screaming, threats of divorce....

(We really do love each other madly; we both have issues that trigger each other really bad.)

Anain: NOT ONCE HAVE I EVER CONSIDERED RAISING SO MUCH AS A FINGER TO HER!

So few people understand anything about the psychology of violence, and so few people think logically, it makes it easy for those promoting gun control to dupe them.

There is a massive difference between being a person capable of violence and being a violent person. And there is such a broad chasm between, say, punching someone in the face and killing him that few ever can bring themselves to cross it.

These are very rough numbers but something like 90% of the crimes are committed by 10% of the people and of that subset, 90% of the violent crimes are committed by 10% of the criminals.
 
...but a great many Americans have the view that a liberal democratic republic, like ours, could "never" turn on civilians in a massive way....

If you want to make their heads spin, point out to them that ours not only can, it has. Twice. Not counting slavery.
 
Only a person living without any other human contact can be truly without limitations, because any non-sociopathic interaction with other people requires some consideration of their needs and their humanity. In a real way, any functional morally-sound interaction and relationship between humans is founded on compromise, on balancing limitations with freedoms and on allowing other their freedoms with the understanding that they will do the same. But as others have said not all people are morally sound people. So now we have to try to find the balanced way to protect ourselves - to preserve our freedoms without removing the limitations that hold our morality sound...

If you want complete freedom and no limitations, then someone is going to do something terrible to someone you love, but if you want completely legislated safety, then nobody will be able to live any life at all - we will be imprisoned. Neither extreme is acceptable to most of us, to good people who would do right by others.

Well, the most time-honored approach in free societies is illustrated by the old saying, "My right to swing my fist ends where your nose begins." In short, we restrain people's conduct that actually harms others. Thus, laws against murder and battery.

The further back the causal chain one goes in an effort to pre-prevent some bad act, the greater the impact on freedom for diminishing returns of safety/security/freedom of others.

This simple approach - regulate the direct harm, not precursors or mere potentials - works very well about 99% of the time.
 
That's true, but a great many Americans have the view that a liberal democratic republic, like ours, could "never" turn on civilians in a massive way. At least not today. Regardless of whether that is right or wrong, it is a huge ideological lift to convince them that there is a real thread of mass violence by the government that could be countered by guns. And that they should be more afraid of that than they are of plain old civilian-committed murder. Given the present realities and most American's lived experiences, it is certainly the case that for most Americans they are more likely to be murdered by a non-state actor than by the state. In short: you're not likely to persuade very many people who aren't already on your side with that argument.

On the other hand, pointing out the strong historical evidence that weapon technology has never been a predictor of levels of intra-societal violence has the potential to be very powerful. Most people have the empirically-wrong assumption that the world was less violent before guns. Showing them that this basic assumption is contrary to the historical evidence can really jolt some of the underlying assumptions that people make along their way to believing that gun control would be an effective way to reduce crime.
I agree with you, and I'm not trying to persuade the anti-gun people of anything. I don't think many of them are on this forum. What I am trying to point out is that our government is the real threat. Even if we convinced every gun control advocate that guns didn't cause crime, that wouldn't stop the government from trying to disarm us eventually. In my opinion.
 
Thank you.

That means a lot coming from you. I've followed your posts for a long time. If I were ever in trouble, I could do no better than have you by my side.
I don't know how to respond to that. Got me right in the feels.

there has to be a word that combines "whoa", "appreciation", "gratitude", and "humility" but I don't know it.
 
A lot of the research involved in this area depends on the assumptions and definitions that one necessarily uses to produce research.

A perspective that uses culture will often shortchange technology and genetics, a perspective focusing on history will shortchange culture and perhaps ideology, and so on. A socio-biologist's take is naturally quite different than that of a criminologist and that of the psychologist.

There is every reason to suspect that violence is different between intra-society and between societies and that intra-societal violence is different between groups in society and individuals in society.

So do firearms enable mass violence?

In the case of intersocietal warfare, there are far better tools for mass slaughter than small arms. Artillery, tanks, torpedoes, missiles, aircraft, machine guns, explosives of all sorts including nuclear and their delivery systems are better attuned to mass mayhem on a society versus society scale and virtually none of these is available to average Joe on the streets. So whatever insights might apply to criminal use of firearms is absent when dealing with large scale destructive weapons between organized national militaries.

In the case of organized groups fighting within societies, once again, small arms such as rifles and handguns is also not a condition to spur massive outbreaks of violence. Riots, for example, often result in improvised weapons being used rather than firearms. What appears more likely is that societal conditions require breakdowns in authority or authority purposefully withdrawing to allow ethnic/religious/racial hatreds to run amok. The Hutu/Tutsi and other genocides often employed other means of violence than firearms and sometimes firearms were only used for a coup de grace.

I would argue that gang members are more akin to civil war between rival groups in society where their norms of behavior become the gang's rather than society and membership alone in a gang demonstrates the likelihood of criminal violence. Their decision was made when they joined the gang rather than on an ad hoc basis. Thus, gang membership composed of criminal members should be a disqualifier for firearm acquisition.

Finally, violence at the individual level can occur with or without firearms as can familial and domestic violence. While firearms certainly facilitate certain crimes like robbery, they are not necessary to do so as robbery is as old as the hills in human affairs and robbers will use whatever is available to threaten their victims. Instead, I suspect that habitual criminals, living as they do, more or less swim in a criminal society and ironically because they have even less trust in society and cannot resort to the law to settle differences, they carry firearms as much for self defense as for committing future crimes. What matters at this level is the willingness to inflict violent harm on others to get what one wants regardless of morals or laws--e.g. criminals or outlaws as they were called. Literally it is a willingness to live one's life outside of the law and society for perceived rewards in power, money, and status. As GunnyUSMC's seized weapons indicate, criminals want to have status just as others do and thus want whatever is perceived to be a "good" gun. A firearm then often becomes a sign for criminals, just like military officers are given a sidearm, of status above the norm and self defense against other criminal enemies, whether or not they use it. As seen in London, criminals will quite willingly revert to knives, acid, or illegally imported or homemade firearms, to facilitate their criminal activities.

That leaves violence at the individual level which is either from private or public grievances against society. This is the sort of individual that can commit either terrorism or mass shootings depending on how you view their grievances. Firearms for them is a means to a end so that they can revenge themselves on the world on society through their victims but there is much to suggest that any other sort of massively destructive weapon would suffice as well for these folks. E.g. the Columbine mass murderers failed to have their primary weapons explode which were improvised IED's--the firearms were actually fallback. Suicide bombers are a similar example. For a long time, a guy blowing up a school with dynamite due to disgruntlement over taxes was one of the largest mass casualty events in the U.S.

Then there is mental illness that can result in firearm violence but only the sort that either a) a person uses one to commit suicide or b) employs one to fight imagined demons in their head (Colorado and Arizona psychotics among others). This is often overlaid with substance abuse so at some point these people can become literally monsters as their brains literally do not function normally at this point. In most cases, their dangerous nature had already been revealed by prior run-ins with the law/courts and/or psychatrists/social workers before they executed their fantasies of violence but often in these cases, the public safety bureaucracy dropped the ball in various ways either on committal delays, paperwork filings, or reluctance to create a record that would have barred them from legally acquiring firearms. What is unknown is exactly how many other monsters of this type were prevented by law enforcement and the mental health workers from doing something similar.

The question then of "firearm violence" (leaving aside conditions of war) becomes quite a different analysis when one takes the firearm as simply a tool that can be used or not used depending on the nature of the perpetrator of the violence. Different perpetrators of violence will have quite different strategies in obtaining one and their cost benefit analysis will be quite different as well. In some cases, it might make things easier for the perpetrator--e.g. robbers, suicide, or domestic violence but the absence might very well cause the perpetrator to substitute means of mayhem. Regarding terrorism, mass violence, maybe gang violence, or that caused by mentally ill individuals, the methods employed to deny them access to firearms would be different. Terrorists, like those with mental illness or grudges, rarely just "snap". There is usually a long train of behavior that takes place as the person "girds" themself to do something awful--they essentially build up to the event by planning, talking, and even practicing what they plan to do. Terrorists are more likely to have communications with others about doing something awful as an aid to planning. Mentally ill or grudge killers usually demonstrate planning as well as threats. Those with mental illness often are substance abusers as well and have key people in their lives fail to blow the whistle before it is too late.

Most of the small remnant of firearm violence between individuals involve a relatively rare condition where either a) someone (not a career criminal or gang member btw) escalates a personal fight using a firearm with a stranger, uses a firearm inappropriately as alleged self defense against a perceived threat including shooting after the threat legally disappears, or an interpersonal argument (aside from domestic violence), sometimes longstanding, sometimes fueled by substance abuse, that degenerates into a deadly fight. These are relatively rare but often are emblazoned across the media as an example of how people just "snap" or "misuse" firearms. In almost every case, the media reporting is shallow, fails to take into account the victim's behavior prior to the incident, and gives an almost cursory dismissal to the story if the facts prove to be far messier than the just "snapped" narrative.

Then there are legitimate cases of self defense where the tool used is irrelevant whether or not it is a firearm.

Yeah, that simple question about firearm violence, turns out it is rather complicated after all.
 
A lot of the research involved in this area depends on the assumptions and definitions that one necessarily uses to produce research.


Yeah, that simple question about firearm violence, turns out it is rather complicated after all.

Yet, often we can go to the very beginning of someone's study, see how they frame the question, and we already have a pretty good idea what their conclusion is going to be. If the study purports to examine gun violence we can expect one sort of conclusion. If it attempts to examine criminality, another conclusion is likely.

The scientific principles are ideally a thing of purity. Social science rarely reaches that level of objective purity, if for no other reason than most people who study the issues start with some pretty good ideas of what they intend to prove.
 
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-That's because there were more people in the 20th century than in most of the previous centuries combined.

Anyway, there are no violent guns, only violent people.
As long as violent people are a protected class then we will have violence.

That would make sense.

View attachment 893361

That’s likely misleading data though as the percentage of the population would be more accurate.

There are also sources for data that predates this Country’s existence that contradicts that statement, when total population is taken into account, as a ratio per 100,000.

View attachment 893363

1% of 100 is 1, 1% of a billion is 10 million.

However, like I said, facts are the enemy of the progressive liberal. Show that data to your “historian” buddy’s and they will just move on to another talking point.

That's a function of population size, nothing else. Murder* rates were higher in the past. Much, much higher if by "murder" we mean (as the term necessarily implies) intra-societal homicide (i.e., excluding state-sanctioned/driven war).

I don’t really buy the population growth argument. I believe it had more to do with Mao, Stalin, and Hitler. If it were due solely to population increase the number would be higher now than ever before, and if current trends remain I feel very confident their will be less people killed this century than last despite the pop increase, now if a new Mao and Stalin arise all bets are off.


And to point out to the antis, gun control is a HUGE part of why they were able to kill so many, in such mass numbers.
 
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