The Key - License or Permit to Possess
This is why I stated in another thread how important it will be for the Supreme Court to be clear and specific in Heller as it relates to licenses and permits. If the Supreme Court rules in Heller that there is an individual right to keep and bear arms, including the right to possess a loaded, operational pistol in one's home, but that the state may require a permit to simply own said pistol, then we have lost.
If that is the ruling then NYC's laws aren't going anywhere. This case is about more than the individual RKBA. It is about more than strict scrutiny and incorporation. All of those things are important but if a license is required for mere possession then it is all moot. State and local governments will simply continue doing what they have done for decades, namely make the licensing process so arduous as to deter most people from even applying. It goes beyond simply charging outrageous fees (which NYC does), requiring ridiculous amounts of paperwork (something NYC also does) and conducting interviews with potential licensees designed to trip you up and disqualify you (3 for 3). One of the tricks most commonly used by municipalities that don't want you to have a firearm is to require multiple trips to the licensing authority during business hours. Many people cannot take three, five, seven days off from work at random times with little notice. Guess what though? You don't make the appointment, you don't get the license.
When Heller is decided, if permits and licenses are required for mere possession we lose. Chicago, NYC etc will simply use mountains of paperwork and other tricks to make the license very difficult to obtain. And nothing changes.