On Line/Off Line .22 Ammo

[CB900F]

Fella's;

A couple of other recent threads prompt this one. Many of us decry the .22 ammo situation in our LGS's, and rightfully so I think. Others say you can buy it anytime you want, online, if you're willing to pay the price - and the shipping.

Now I can understand why the locally owned one or three man store doesn't have it, he doesn't have enough volume to warrant his wholesaler's attention. But, lets take the larger LGS's who don't normally have .22 ammo on hand either. I'm referring to chains like Scheels - 24 stores, and Big R - 99 stores. They can order the volume, and when they get ammo, it sells out rapidly. I'm very sure that the membership here can name several other examples of this type of chain gun shop, can ya say Cabela's? When they do get .22 ammo in, it's frequently of an odd brand or type also. OTOH, the online retailers seem to be able to supply a much broader range of both manufacturer's and types within a manufacturer's range, albeit at a price.

Why the discrepancy I wonder? Surely the Big R chain can place an order as large, or larger, than Bucksnot's On-line Bullet Barn. Why do the on-liner's seem to be getting supply preference? In fact, I'm willing to place a small wager that if CCI, for instance, were to try to fill all of Big R's unfilled orders for the last decade, nobody else would see any of their production. Yes, yes, I know, CCI makes 4 million rounds a day 24/7 and that's a lot. But, there's an even larger number of unfilled and/or cancelled back orders in the last decade from all wholesaler's serving storefront retailers. Why are these operations taking a back seat to on-line?

Can't be volume, that doesn't wash when looked at in the light of cold reason. There's no reason the wholesale/retail ammo supplier's money isn't just as good as ole Bucksnot's either. If it for some reason it isn't, then there's these discrimination laws that should be applied. Or, have the traditional ammunition wholesaler's started their own on-line sales points? There I can see the incentive, after all, why supply the LGS competition? But, I'd think the restraint-of-trade regulations, the aforementioned discrimination laws, and probably a few other points of law would prevent that situation from occurring.

To me, it would seem that skulduggery is in play. The problem is that good skulduggery is, of course, not self-evident to those being fleeced. It would indeed be interesting to see the contracts between the major domestic rimfire manufacturer's and their client base.

900F

 

[ATLDave]

I think it's because the speculators/re-sellers have a harder time using the online retailers as their source. They nearly always have limits, and the requirement of a shipping address and payment information makes that easier to enforce, while shipping costs cut into the potential profit margin of the flippers. But a brick and mortar store without a very diligent and rigorously-enforced quota/limit will quickly be picked clean by flippers... many of whom slip a few bucks to clerks and/or truckers to tip them off to new shipments.

 

[CB900F]

ATLDave;

I specifically stated that I'm not talking about the locally owned LGS, I'm talking about the brick-and-mortar guys who think a 5,000 square foot store is the small one. The guys who can, and undoubtedly do, order multiple millions of rounds of .22lr per year for their chain operation. Bucksnot gets ammo, they don't, why is that?

900F

 

[susieqz]

it feels like conspiracy but i see no evidence of conspiracy.

 

[rcmodel]

How do you know where Bucksnot is getting the ammo.

Direct from a manufacture.
Or directly on-line from hoarders getting it from the big box stores, where they are buying & flipping it??

Then again, maybe Mr. Bucksnot went to collage with Mr. Ammo warehouse Middle-man, and he still has some embarrassing photos from that one frat party??

rc

 

[CB900F]

Rcmodel;

Let's clarify a bit. If the box says Federal, Remington, or Winchester, I know who produced it. What I don't know is the path it took to get to Bucksnot. But, I think it's a near lead-pipe-cinch bet that every intermediate step between F-R-W and Bucksnot adds cost. I see that when my local large LGS does have ammo, it's almost always underpriced compared to Bucksnot.

However in your case one, the flippers, I'd think at some point they're violating Federal regs as unregistered ammunition wholesalers. Maybe not, but somehow I doubt it. I've never known the BATF to be a benevolent agency. In case two, that's blackmail. In the past that used to be a crime, but with some of the recent past Supreme decisions, who knows today?

It would seem that the large LGS should have only two transactions between themselves and retail: Manufacturer to wholesaler, and wholesaler to Large LGS. A shorter supply line should result in less cost and faster turn rate. The manufacturer should, I'd think, want that. The question then becomes why isn't that happening? Free market capitolism says it should be that way, but obviously there's another factor. As Susieqz states, there's no overt evidence of that factor being a conspiracy, but if not, I'd like to find out what it is.

900F

 

[Ed Ames]

I think the difference is largely imagination or confirmation bias/selective memory.

It is easy to forget that the reason there are several online sites tracking ammo price and availability is that two years ago midway et al would put anything ammo related on their sites and it would sell out in minutes.

What has changed? 1) Midway et al raised prices, lowering the rewards of reselling. 2) Some people have decided they aren't going to buy from ammo resellers. 3) Overall demand has gone down.

Those same factors apply to local retailers. Small shops, and chains small and large, that couldn't keep *any* ammo in stock 2 years ago now have boxes of everything, including .22lr, stacking up.

If I decided I wanted more .22lr today I would head over to the local Academy. They have a shelf of the stuff. If I wanted fancier ammo I'd go to Cabela's where they have bulk packs, match grade, and mid grade ammo too. Why not a gun shop or online? Prices are usually higher.

 

[splattergun]

Big Box purchasing is a strange, cumbersome animal indeed. Christmas purchasing decisions are made in March, or February, or earlier... perhaps at last year's Christmas. Trend forecasting is an entire office crew. Orders in the pipeline are based on years, if not decades, of consumer buying data. They buy based on historical sales of the past several years, not as a reaction to the panic buying of the last 4 years. Certainly, they do make adjustments, but they follow long-term trends. Those adjustments are based on additional data that is parsed, analysed, and examined in detail. If their data shows that Distribution Center Number 3 historically sells 2,00,000 rounds of .22LR in the summer quarter, then that is what will be ordered, with possible minor adjustments due to greater panic demand. The BB stores rarely, if ever, order direct from the manufacturers.

There, The ammo is ordered from the Big Box distribution center. They have to place an order, too. With the manufacturer. Or possibly from a wholesale distributor. They also make their purchases based on data trends as well. They are cumbersome as well. So, they place their orders, based on data, with some adjustment for panic forecasts. The P.O. is cut to the manufacturer.

The manufacturer FINALLY receives an order for 2,000,000 rounds, + or - some to adjust for trend differentials. That order is put in the system and waits its turn to be fulfilled. After all, there are lot's of companies trying to buy from the manufacturer.

Now, the manufacturer also works under forecast trends. They have to adjust fast as they can, or lose business, but it still takes time. They are inundated with sudden order increases from virtually EVERY client. Every order is larger than the forecasts. It takes time to adjust.

Big Box Inc's order is likely serviced in turn, although I do know from personal experience in the retail trade, that big bucks speaks louder than smaller bucks. A few months later, the 2,250,000 round (adjusted) order is shipped to to BB Distr Ctr #3. Weeks later, BB Inc, Store Number 1234 receives the weekly order for 5,000 rounds of .22LR. An order that is based on historical sales data of weekly sales for that item.

Now come the complications, and the conspiracies;
This ammo is now in high demand. There are people willing to do most anything to get it. They will bribe store personnel including mangers to hold it for them. They will have relatives and friends come stand in line at 7:00 AM and buy the maximum allowed. Then they will sell it to pawn shops, guns show dealers, or private online sales, all for a serious mark up of panic prices.
Oh, sure. some are actually hoarding ammo they'll never use. But they are only part of the problem.

So, are the BB stores supposed to double, triple, or quadruple their orders, and disregard sales histories? What if they do that, and suddenly the panic ends? They could be stuck with millions of dollars of inventory for which there was no market.

No, it's not all a conspiracy with the BB stores. It's just business.

OTH, I believe that if a person thinks that there are no conspiracies in government or business, they have their foil hat stuck in the wrong end.

 

[basicblur]

Yeah...I read a little of that "other thread" to which you are probably referring.

Sorry, but the fellow that kept claiming all the 22LR you want is out there, but we were just too cheap to pay the price is way off in my book.

I'm interested in 22 for 5 to 7 cents a round (prices being what they are these days), but I've been checking some online retailers the last few days to see what's going on, and they're still charging about 100% (or more) over what Walmart charges for the same box of ammo.

Deliveries to our local "low cost, long term thinking" gun shop have picked up quite a bit over the last couple of months. He's always managed to have some coming in, but deliveries have escalated lately. While higher than Walmart, he's still well under the gouging I see going on online, and these online folks should be doing more volume than he is, so I see no reason why they should not be getting 22 at prices equal or below our local shop.

Another local shop that's only been open a few years had seen little / no 22 until recently - he's now getting it from a number of suppliers.

AFA our local Walmart...the insiders are still at play. We've had a local flipper that has been cleaning them (and a few other area Walmarts) out for a few years, and apparently he's still at it (although I don't know how the bottom hasn't dropped from under him yet).

Before you go hitting me with the conspiracy theory...I know of what I speak on our local Walmart(s). I've met the man, heard a lot about him, he can't keep his mouth shut (likes to brag), and I actually beat him at his own game until I had all the 22 both I and my friends needed for a while.
I've also caught one gal (3 times) in the department selling 22 after telling customers there was none.

AFA the shortages, I tell folks it' basically a case of The Perfect Storm:
1. Folks panic and buy what they don't need because it's there.
2. Many folks like me have just got into volume 22 shooting over the last few years due to the explosion in AR style 22 rifles, along with 22 1911's, etc.
3. The two reasons above automatically bring out the flippers, which exacerbates the situation.

Fer myself, I think point #2 is the main reason 22 has been in short supply for the last few years. I went from shooting no 22 to burning thru quite a bit now that I have a number of 22 rifles & pistols (copies of my big dawgs).

I also have a number of friends in the same boat as myself - multiply that by who knows how many new / increased 22 shooters (just look at the YouTube videos and the dates) and you have the makings of a shortage.

As a long time shooter, I've always managed to avoid / ride out the numerous ammo shortages over the years by relying on inventory, but I was blindsided by the 22 shortage since I just got into it a few years ago.

 

[moxie]

Anybody seen any Velocitor or Stinger anywhere? Online? Big box? LGS?

I can't find any at any price.

According to CCI's figures, they have produced over 2,000 million .22LR in the past 18 months. All I see is dribbles of mostly the regular stuff, on or off line. The "panic" has been over for a while. Most ammo types are readiliy available at pre-panic prices or close to it. Guns themselves are readily available now. Even ARs are selling for less than a few years ago. But little ole .22LR is still pretty short and way too expensive. Doesn't make sense. I drank the kool-aid and believed the pap for long enough. Now I can't figure it out.

 

[JTHunter]

In this area is a regional chain store called Rural King. They sometimes buy .22LR ammo through a "middleman" and, as such, their prices are higher.

They recently had Winchester 555 bulk packs priced at over $60 (~$60.50) for the same ammo that a new Gander Mt. store about 5 miles away is selling for $35.

 

[basicblur]

Prices from our local gun shop (flying on memory, but I'm pretty darn close):
1. Federal AutoMatch $24.99 (I think Walmart is $19.95 / $18.95).
2. CCI Landry (don't remember the price, but pretty sure it was under $30).
3. Various CCI small box ammo at around $9.99 / 100 rds.
4. Remington Golden Bullets in the 500 or so round box for around $30 or less.
5. RWS (I think) for a ridiculous price (and the store folks laugh when they ask you if you want a brick)! It's probably some special target stuff, but I'm interested in only bulk 22, stepping up slightly to CCI when I want more / better? (although I've had good luck with Federal). I think the RWS bricks are $89 / box?

Only thing I'm interested in is CCI Standard Velocity bricks (for silencer use) so I check the shelves around 3 times a week. He said it had been a while since he'd seen any of what I'm looking for, but the last brick of CCI Standard Velocity was $39.99.

He's also buying thru middlemen, so why are his prices so much cheaper than certain online vendors?
(Don't bother to answer - it's a rhetorical question).

 

[Ignition Override]

Retail staff always see the same people buying it at various stores in the mornings.

The really classy people spend their retirement going early to Walmart for a few bricks, or later to other stores on days when most of us go to work.
They usually flip it on GB etc.

No thanks, I would rather shoot the SKS for .23/rd.

 

[USAF_Vet]

I gave up on shooting .22lr. It was never much fun for me in the first place as I actually want to feel like I'm shooting. A little recoil and noise is nice verification. Anyway, as a casual at best .22 shooter, I haven't seen .22 on shelves in years. Last time I did see some, it was 100 packs of Remington Golden bullet, for $7.99. I bought 2 boxes, still have them both, and mostly full.

Sure, I can find it online, for as much as I can find cheap 9mm bulk packs, or 7.62x39 or even imported 5.56. The 'adult' calibers might have a higher price tag, but I'm getting more bang for my buck. .22 online sales are really only worth it if you buy in bulk due to hazmat and shipping, which jacks the price up to where I'd just rather shoot center fire cartridges and shells. I'm still getting 8 shot for 12 and 20 gauge at low prices, and I can reload for 12 ga.

I'm not bothered by the lack of .22 on the shelves because my .22 rifles sat gathering dust even when .22 was cheap and plentiful. Now that it's neither, I'll focus on center fire stuff.

 

[onelastshot]

There are several issues affecting the current price and availability of 22LR ammo, most of them have already been touched upon. One of the key factors for price increases is the reseller; the guy that has made a business out of going to Walmart and other chain stores and purchasing whatever they can for the sole purpose of selling it on the internet or to small local gun shops who are charging 200-300% above typical chain prices.

Another reason is the customer. The average shooter didn't think twice about availability a few years back; every store had plenty of product so stocking up on 22LR was never an issue. Today few people pass up the opportunity to buy in bulk whenever they find ammo under ten cents a round. People who never stockpiled 22LR now have thousands of rounds and will purchase more whenever the opportunity presents itself. A few weeks ago, the local Cabelas had Winchester bulk packs of 1000 rounds for $59.00. People were lining up to grab a box and in less than an hour it was gone. Right next to the empty sales rack were 550 count boxes for $58.00 As soon as the larger bulk packs were sold people began purchasing the 550 count boxes just as fast even though the price was almost double.

Lastly, people are shooting more. 22LR Conversion kits for AR's are popular and semiautomatic rifles eat up a lot more ammo a lot faster than bolt actions.

Things aren't going to change as long as people are willing to pay premium prices and the hording continues. The new manufacturing plant should help but that help is a long way off.

 

[susieqz]

some people don't need or want ''adult'' ammo. some people shoot 22lr because it's fun. some people won't shoot centerfire at any price because they don't enjoy it..

i have a 9mm p85 that i shoot once every 7 years. i shoot my 22/45 daily. if i can't get 22lr, i don't shoot.

 

[Robert]

Why does every 22 thread turn into a hording, rim fire v center fire shooter conspiracy fest?