One unusual way I know the .22 rimfire shortage has largely ended.

[CraigC]

I can walk into Academy and the shelves are loaded. No limits. I know where we both live. Bass Pro is 40 minutes from my house and Cabela's is an hour.

I'm not sure when you think the shortage started

Uh, it started when there was none to be found and as far as I'm concerned, has let up some but is still on-going. Maybe the ammo YOU typically shoot is available at reasonable prices and in the quantities YOU require but not everyone has the same needs/requirements.

I seriously doubt there are more people doing "mag dumps" with .22's than there were back when it was $9 a brick. Since I started shooting as a child, there has never been a time that I would only shoot 100rds in a sitting. In recent years, the bulk of my rimfire shooting has been with .22 revolvers. I don't do "mag dumps".

Saying there's still a shortage is wrong. It's available everywhere but Walmart. Sure there are regional shortages, but that doesn't mean squat.

Until bulk ammo is universally available and at sane prices, there's a shortage. Right now the only places it's in stock are where the prices are 150-200% higher than previous and/or there are limits. Until I can buy bulk ammo for significantly less than 150-200% higher than pre-shortage prices, I call it a shortage and I'm still miffed at the hoarders for causing it. Feel free to call it what you want.

I haven't bought any .22 LR in a few months. I have around 40k on hand and that will hold me for quite a while. I can actually reload and shoot 9mm for less than the cost of decent .22 ammo. I just need to pick up a good 9mm carbine and I'll be set.

No offense but the folks who quote Mini-Mag numbers and make comments about shooting 9mm for less aren't doing the volume of rimfire shooting I was accustomed to.

 

[Walkalong]

Yep, things are much better, but not back to "normal". But I am not miffed at anyone.

 

[jmorris]

Shortage or not you wont catch me leaving perfectly good ammo on the ground.

At least reloaded 22's is not much of a problem. I wouldn't collect ammunition various shooters left behind at matches but I also don't shoot rimfire matches or drop my rounds on the ground when I show clear.

 

[jmorris]

Since I started shooting as a child, there has never been a time that I would only shoot 100rds in a sitting. In recent years, the bulk of my rimfire shooting has been with .22 revolvers. I don't do "mag dumps".

You likely did a lot of wasteful things as a child that you no longer do. Kids have all the fun...

 

[CraigC]

But I am not miffed at anyone.

I love rimfires and do the bulk of my shooting with them, all 45 of them. I have been able to do very little rimfire shooting over the last several years because of their greed. Yeah, you could say I'm a bit miffed.

You likely did a lot of wasteful things as a child that you no longer do. Kids have all the fun...

I don't see it as wasteful. I build skill with the .22LR. When you shoot on your own property, your opportunities to shoot come much more often.

 

[FROGO207]

Well I pickup any ,22 ammo along with all the brass I find. including .22 brass. I find it good exercise. I take the .22 ammo apart and salvage the lead for the most part. the brass I put in an old dutch oven on the propane burner and heat until the popping stops and eventually add it to the brass I will recycle.

My understanding is that WM buys large quantities in advance at a set price. When the price is too high they will just add different, similar type merchandise that they can still get for a deal. The WM buyers are probably waiting for one of the manufacturers to make a reasonable offer. Why would the manufacturers bother to deal with lowball customers when they can sell all they can make at a premium profit anyway. I just saw the cheap .22 ammo in WM as a lost leader to get people into the store in the first place. Just my take.

 

[CraigC]

Yesterday was the first day I was able to walk into a store (Academy) and buy the .22LR ammo I wanted. Rather than just taking whatever they had. IMHO, it was still higher than it should be but low enough to buy it anyway.

 

[CapnMac]

There are quick and simple ways to remove all semblances of dust, sand, etc.

Fewer though, to reverse PTFE contamination, WD-40 induced "dudding" or the like.
Also, it's possible that the process that spins the priming compound under the rim fails to do so in a complete manner. You coul pick one of those up and retry it a dozen times, might go off, might not.

 

[CapnMac]

That's exactly what's happening.

That would require international conspiracy,
Aguila ammo was just as scarce as any other, so, the Mexicans were "in" on the deal, too?
Sellier & Bellot, a Czech company which is a subsidiary of Brazil's CBC, was also "in" on it?

"They" them made all those poor dumb bubbas go lurk around the lodaing docks of WalMart & Academy and the like and buy up ammo by the case, so no one could buy by the box?

All this goes back to General Dynamics buying up ATK (because GD was being forced out of the ship building biz) which coincidentally happened just as the USG doubled its ammunition purchases. That caused some major ripples in the wholesale supply lines.
As pointed out above, it takes time to set up production lines. Particularly when millions of rounds are meant to be made. You also cannot just whistle up 2nd & 3rd shifts, those require training and standing up, and raw materials bought and stockpiled.

 

[Solomonson]

Fewer though, to reverse PTFE contamination, WD-40 induced "dudding" or the like.
Also, it's possible that the process that spins the priming compound under the rim fails to do so in a complete manner. You coul pick one of those up and retry it a dozen times, might go off, might not.

Wrong. Don't take my original posting out of context! I found the ammo at a match I was taking part in. It was fresh and un-struck. Not that it applies in this case but PTFE/WD-40 related problems would be fairly uncommon with RIMFIRE ammo.

 

[Cannibul]

Well I pickup any ,22 ammo along with all the brass I find. including .22 brass. I find it good exercise. I take the .22 ammo apart and salvage the lead for the most part. the brass I put in an old dutch oven on the propane burner and heat until the popping stops and eventually add it to the brass I will recycle.

My understanding is that WM buys large quantities in advance at a set price. When the price is too high they will just add different, similar type merchandise that they can still get for a deal. The WM buyers are probably waiting for one of the manufacturers to make a reasonable offer. Why would the manufacturers bother to deal with lowball customers when they can sell all they can make at a premium profit anyway. I just saw the cheap .22 ammo in WM as a lost leader to get people into the store in the first place. Just my take.

But for the fact that the manufacturers never jacked up the price.

In 2016 Federal said they had a back order status on over a billion rounds of .22 LR.

In 2016 the daily output of all .22LR production in the US would provide 2500 rounds per Walmart per day. That leaves nothing for any other outlet. 5 bricks a day, per Walmart. Let that sink in for a second. If you're a thinking man it will give you and idea of how short the supply chain is for those little rounds.

 

[salt&battery]

But for the fact that the manufacturers never jacked up the price.

In 2016 Federal said they had a back order status on over a billion rounds of .22 LR.

In 2016 the daily output of all .22LR production in the US would provide 2500 rounds per Walmart per day. That leaves nothing for any other outlet. 5 bricks a day, per Walmart. Let that sink in for a second. If you're a thinking man it will give you and idea of how short the supply chain is for those little rounds.

I have never seen a shortage of 22 ammo for 50 years until this man made crises a product of buyers and makers of the ammo. let that sink in

 

[Mosin Bubba]

If I have any 22s that don't go off, I'll usually pocket them and try to put them through a revolver later.

Was in an Academy the other day and they had some bricks for $30. I'm starting to see 22 show up all over for $30-$40 a brick, and I think that's going to be the new norm.

 

[wally]

I'm starting to see 22 show up all over for $30-$40 a brick, and I think that's going to be the new norm.

Only if people buy at that price, for me, $25/500 or less is what it takes to trigger a buy.

Again based on the "good old days" of the bulk pack .22lr running 1/4 the price per round of the cheapest 9mm, I'd say $0.04 per round ($20 a brick) could be the new normal eventually.

 

[Mosin Bubba]

Only if people buy at that price, for me, $25/500 or less is what it takes to trigger a buy.

The thing is, they are.

I'm seeing 22 in most of the places I go, but not a ton of it. Bricks tend to dry up fast, and most of what's out there is 50rd boxes.

I could see the prices continue to move down some - $50 a brick used to be the going rate, now it's down to $40. But if they're still selling like this at $40, I just can't see them going back to $25 or $20.

 

[wally]

I just can't see them going back to $25 or $20.

I got 5000 rounds a month or so ago from Aim Surplus for $250 (25/500), Aguila copper plated 40gr. Got a Email sales flier from them a few days ago and they were still listing it at that price.
$40-50 a brick is a sit on the store shelf and collect dust price for me as I can reload 9mm for this which is mostly what I shot during the "shortage".

We were much better stocked in .22lr than most at the time it happened (by dumb luck) and I mostly reserved it for my Wife's shooting. Before the panic I was shooting 1500-2000 rounds of .22lr a month at steel plates and she was doing ~1000. I'm happy to have enough on hand now and seeing price and availability improve that I'm having fun shooting .22lr again, but for the time being still less than half of what I used to do.

 

[Wanderling]

I have never seen a shortage of 22 ammo for 50 years until this man made crises a product of buyers and makers of the ammo. let that sink in

The man made crisis is a classic case of self-fueling deficit.

An item - in this case a .22LR round - is in good supply but without a large inventory - just enough to provide everyone who actually used it with required quantities. Let's say an average shooter is buying 2 bricks a month to shoot (I of course made this number up, just for example).

Then, a sudden panic-driven surge in demand clears the store shelves.

Now, this average shooter hasn't seen this .22 in stores for a while, so when he does see it he's buying 10 bricks instead of 2. This means 4 other shooters won't get their bricks. The demand goes up even higher, and the Craigslist price shoots through the roof.

So now, the scalpers get involved. They have connections at the local Wally (used to be in school detention with the guy stocking shelves in the Sporting Goods department), all the time in the world (have been fired from yet another job), so they line up at 6 am to buy up all of the inventory before anyone else gets a chance.

The demand goes up even higher, and the item becomes even more scarce.

Unless the ammo makers increase supply, or a large number of people get tired of this and stop using .22lr altogether decreasing the demand, this self-fueling deficit can go on for a long, long, long time.

 

[salt&battery]

The man made crisis is a classic case of self-fueling deficit.

An item - in this case a .22LR round - is in good supply but without a large inventory - just enough to provide everyone who actually used it with required quantities. Let's say an average shooter is buying 2 bricks a month to shoot (I of course made this number up, just for example).

Then, a sudden panic-driven surge in demand clears the store shelves.

Now, this average shooter hasn't seen this .22 in stores for a while, so when he does see it he's buying 10 bricks instead of 2. This means 4 other shooters won't get their bricks. The demand goes up even higher, and the Craigslist price shoots through the roof.

So now, the scalpers get involved. They have connections at the local Wally (used to be in school detention with the guy stocking shelves in the Sporting Goods department), all the time in the world (have been fired from yet another job), so they line up at 6 am to buy up all of the inventory before anyone else gets a chance.

The demand goes up even higher, and the item becomes even more scarce.

Unless the ammo makers increase supply, or a large number of people get tired of this and stop using .22lr altogether decreasing the demand, this self-fueling deficit can go on for a long, long, long time.

good post and I do not think it will ever end. it is a way of life for many with extra money and time on their hands

 

[Cannibul]

I have never seen a shortage of 22 ammo for 50 years until this man made crises a product of buyers and makers of the ammo. let that sink in

I'll be 57 this year and this is the third shortage of .22 LR that I can remember. This is the longest lasting one though in that time.

You blame the manufacturers, why? What do you suspect they did? What would you have them do different?

Rimfire ammo is the most labor intensive ammo to make, the priming is done by hand and it takes 2-3 years to learn how to do that. It's also the lowest margin ammo made. Material costs are 5X what they were in 2004.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...uila-increasing-22-production-by-30-per-year/

https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2010/9/10/the-impossible-22-rimfire/

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...eral-to-increase-22-production-by-20-in-2016/

https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2015/11/19/keefe-report-why-can-t-i-find-22-ammo/

http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/27/so-really-where-is-the-22-rimfire-ammo/

http://blog.defenderoutdoors.com/cci-vice-president-future-rimfire-prices/ Note the $70 million cost to increase production. From the day they decide to expand till the day the new line starts producing ammo is 2-3 years. Then another 7-10 to actually see a ROI.

https://www.ammoland.com/2014/03/ammunition-shortages-and-22-production/#axzz4j8dhd1QW

Suppose 50 million Americans decided that they would like to have 1,000 rounds of .22 on hand for a rainy day, rather like I did in the 1970s. That is 50 billion cartridges, or about 12 times the annual manufacturing capacity for .22 ammunition in the United States.

 

[salt&battery]

I'll be 57 this year and this is the third shortage of .22 LR that I can remember. This is the longest lasting one though in that time.

You blame the manufacturers, why? What do you suspect they did? What would you have them do different?

Rimfire ammo is the most labor intensive ammo to make, the priming is done by hand and it takes 2-3 years to learn how to do that. It's also the lowest margin ammo made. Material costs are 5X what they were in 2004.

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...uila-increasing-22-production-by-30-per-year/

https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2010/9/10/the-impossible-22-rimfire/

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...eral-to-increase-22-production-by-20-in-2016/

https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2015/11/19/keefe-report-why-can-t-i-find-22-ammo/

http://dailycaller.com/2014/08/27/so-really-where-is-the-22-rimfire-ammo/

http://blog.defenderoutdoors.com/cci-vice-president-future-rimfire-prices/ Note the $70 million cost to increase production. From the day they decide to expand till the day the new line starts producing ammo is 2-3 years. Then another 7-10 to actually see a ROI.

https://www.ammoland.com/2014/03/ammunition-shortages-and-22-production/#axzz4j8dhd1QW

Suppose 50 million Americans decided that they would like to have 1,000 rounds of .22 on hand for a rainy day, rather like I did in the 1970s. That is 50 billion cartridges, or about 12 times the annual manufacturing capacity for .22 ammunition in the United States.

I do not know you are talking about never knew of any other shortages. yes everybody is innocent the hoarders the scalpers the producers the customers the gun stores. greed, gluttony had absolutely nothing to do with it

 

[Cannibul]

There wa a 18 month shortage in 2008 when Obama was first elected. It had just resolved when Sandy Hook hit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–13_United_States_ammunition_shortage

The there was one in the mid/late '80's.

 

[salt&battery]

There wa a 18 month shortage in 2008 when Obama was first elected. It had just resolved when Sandy Hook hit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–13_United_States_ammunition_shortage

The there was one in the mid/late '80's.

you are saying they were the same as now? those "shortages" you speak of maybe affected guys that shoot 10K rounds a month did not affect me in the least

 

[GooseGestapo]

Well, at least I'm seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
I saw Remington 100/box at Walmart in ammo display case for $7.38. Since it wasn't hollow point, I walked... I would pay that for mimimag hp. Maybe 500rds.

 

[Walkalong]

I do not know you are talking about never knew of any other shortages. yes everybody is innocent the hoarders the scalpers the producers the customers the gun stores. greed, gluttony had absolutely nothing to do with it

Many things drove prices up, but none had anything to do with ammo makers simply not being able to supply the demand. Right, wrong, or indifferent, the people buying ammo at inflated prices kept the prices inflated. It's a waste of energy being mad at human behavior. It won't change, hasn't since the dawn of man.

 

[.308 Norma]

So now, the scalpers get involved. They have connections at the local Wally (used to be in school detention with the guy stocking shelves in the Sporting Goods department), all the time in the world (have been fired from yet another job),

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!
That was a good one, Wanderling.