Primers

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GeoDudeFlorida said:
No, it's fairly realistic. Vista's bread-and-butter is military and police contracts; retail sales is a hill they climb to support their business model and keep the contracting agents happy. Vista can use the general public as a supplemental revenue source for their over-contract production and make a little good PR with the contracting agents by saying they're. "all about the American Sportsman," when they're really all about the government contracts.

Maybe that's also a "cynical" point of view but it's where the evidence leads: Vista prioritized Federal LEO and military contracts over civilian sales and has been selling contract overruns to the public at inflated prices. There's no question there.

When I worked in aerospace we saw that routinely with military contract agents. They wanted to see our civilian contracts nearly match our milspec contracts. Congress gets testy about the "Military-Industrial Complex" - which Congress funds - forming some kind of symbiotic relationships. It makes some Congress-critters think there's such things as military-industrial cabals and black-bag experimental weapons research operations. :scrutiny:

There are both of course but, who are they to assume anything? :evil:
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I’m not going to try and refute or validate anything you or @EricBu say because to do so would require me to expend far more effort than I wish to—much validation or refutation might be found in SEC filings and I have way better things to do than review those as I’m sure you all do too.

I don’t doubt for a moment Vista thinks far less about me and my well being and my satisfaction than I think they should but that’s a universe away from thinking there is anything untoward going on which is what it appears you both are implying.

And by the way, in my view preserving our domestic industrial base (for example, the capability/capacity to build big ass aircraft carriers in NNews, VA), securing a domestic supply chain for critical goods, etc., is wise and if that’s what Eisenhower warned us about then so be it. As SHAEF he’s viewed as a genius and savior. The defense industrial complex made it possible.
 
CQB45ACP said:
I’m not going to try and refute or validate anything you or @EricBu say because to do so would require me to expend far more effort than I wish to—much validation or refutation might be found in SEC filings and I have way better things to do than review those as I’m sure you all do too.

I don’t doubt for a moment Vista thinks far less about me and my well being and my satisfaction than I think they should but that’s a universe away from thinking there is anything untoward going on which is what it appears you both are implying.

And by the way, in my view preserving our domestic industrial base (for example, the capability/capacity to build big ass aircraft carriers in NNews, VA), securing a domestic supply chain for critical goods, etc., is wise and if that’s what Eisenhower warned us about then so be it. As SHAEF he’s viewed as a genius and savior. The defense industrial complex made it possible.
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I didn't mean to imply anything illegal or even unethical is going on with Vista. Just the opposite: they're doing business and doing it well. The retail consumer is far more interested in electronics than IBM (for example but you can replace them with HPE, Dell, Fujitsu, HCL, Hitachi, Infosys, Kyndryl, Unisys, Wipro or any "big iron" server manufacturer) is interested in consumer electronics. It's just not where they make their money. Each big iron copr also makes parts and software for the consumer marketplace, either directly or indirectly, but it's not their bread-and-butter. That's not "wrong" or untoward, it's reality.

Vista makes things that they can sell to make more things and feed their workforce. That's their business model. There's nothing wrong with that.
 
EricBu said:
I am a cynical person by nature...at 54, nothing in the world has demonstrated to me that I should be otherwise. And several decades in the military, corp world, contractor world, and small business world has only reinforced it. A business entity is not a social empowerment construct, no matter what AOC or that ilk would have you believe. It has to make money, or it ceases to exist. Vista is a publicly traded company (actually 2 now), and is also beholden to it's shareholders. They have an obligation to maximize their profit for their shareholders...many of whom have no idea what a primer is, or what it's used for. They will leverage ever single angle they have to maximize profit and minimize expense. This is the way it is. It is no different than the frog and scorpion fable. While they try and present a friendly outdoor sportsman consumer drive......they will sting you. It's their nature, and one can't help their nature.
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I’m 71 and I get it and don’t fully disagree. But let me suggest something I ignored when my father said it but finally understood when a mentor told me mid-career—don’t let healthy skepticism beget unhealthy cynicism. (But then we also have to remember what Woody Allen said—just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you.) I know, who the heck am I to be preaching? Sorry, it’s meant in good faith.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
I didn't mean to imply anything illegal or even unethical is going on with Vista. Just the opposite: they're doing business and doing it well. The retail consumer is far more interested in electronics than IBM (for example but you can replace them with HPE, Dell, Fujitsu, HCL, Hitachi, Infosys, Kyndryl, Unisys, Wipro or any "big iron" server manufacturer) is interested in consumer electronics. It's just not where they make their money. Each big iron copr also makes parts and software for the consumer marketplace, either directly or indirectly, but it's not their bread-and-butter. That's not "wrong" or untoward, it's reality.

Vista makes things that they can sell to make more things and feed their workforce. That's their business model. There's nothing wrong with that.
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I know. Good discussion all around, yeah?
 
CQB45ACP said:
And by the way, in my view preserving our domestic industrial base (for example, the capability/capacity to build big ass aircraft carriers in NNews, VA), securing a domestic supply chain for critical goods, etc., is wise and if that’s what Eisenhower warned us about then so be it. As SHAEF he’s viewed as a genius and savior. The defense industrial complex made it possible.
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The sad reality for me is, so many of the weapons systems developed during The Cold War - the 1980's in particular - to protect the Federal Republic and freedom from communism are now being used against Republican forms of government and freedom to promote communism. :(

Relating that to the primer shortage, there are reasons within reasons that I see for promoting and limiting the general public to "quasi-military" arms and munitions. We are seeing very, very few large rifle and large pistol primers - those used for hunting handguns and rifles - but a new bounty in small rifle and pistol munitions and components. I am suspicious of this trend.
 
CQB45ACP said:
I’m not going to try and refute or validate anything you or @EricBu say because to do so would require me to expend far more effort than I wish to—much validation or refutation might be found in SEC filings and I have way better things to do than review those as I’m sure you all do too.

I don’t doubt for a moment Vista thinks far less about me and my well being and my satisfaction than I think they should but that’s a universe away from thinking there is anything untoward going on which is what it appears you both are implying.

And by the way, in my view preserving our domestic industrial base (for example, the capability/capacity to build big ass aircraft carriers in NNews, VA), securing a domestic supply chain for critical goods, etc., is wise and if that’s what Eisenhower warned us about then so be it. As SHAEF he’s viewed as a genius and savior. The defense industrial complex made it possible.
Click to expand...
I am not implying anything untoward, I am not in fact implying anything. Simply stating that business is about profit. I don't engage in business out of kindness, or a desire to socially empower others, or to make people happy. I do it to make money. Making people happy, and therefore satisfied with the service and product I provide, contributes to my profit. I have to balance customer desire against product pricing and supply. Vista is now operating in monopoly territory. They do NOT have to cater to the consumer at all. In fact by marginalizing their consumer sales, and deliberating keeping prices high, they are in fact being "good stewards" for their shareholders. This isn't nefarious, or untoward at all. You might as well hate a rattlesnake or a scorpion for being what it is. Some things just are, and always will be. In a perfect world, Vista would be forced to cater to their consumer base (us), and have a more competitive price structure, because of compeition. They currently do not have meaningful domestic competition. The "other" primer maker has never had the market share in the past, and simply cannot produce enough to make a meaningful dent in the demand. At this point in time. That may change. Imports may get easier. Ginis Unix may get a 250 million large pistol into the country and force Vista to be competitive for a while...or at least take a bit out of demand. We never know. But right now, as things stand...Vista has NO reason to not keep prices high, and every reason to keep them high.
 
EricBu said:
Lol, why would the cost ever come down? Vista is already cutting back primer production, and they control the US primer market, the "other" US primer maker now just reacts, they can't make the market anymore. So Vista can either a) produce and sell primers at a falling price point, making a profit via volume or b) reduce output to meet their internal ammo production demand with a small amount of excess to sell through their various distributors, layoff 2 shifts at 2 plants, let the price remain high and make the exact same amount of profit...but with reduced HR overhead....which path do you think the smart business man takes? Imports could make a huge difference......but our lovely government has created so many hoops and barriers that it takes forever to get a lot through the entire process and onto shelves. I don't expect prices to come down much more than a few percent...heck, if the economy tanks, and we go into a full recession.......Vista will just layoff more people, and slow production even more. I suspect those heady post shortage booms of yesteryear are not likely to be as robust or last as long in the future with one company controlling 90% of domestic production.
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Who told you vista is laying off workers and slowing production to inflate prices ?
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
I write code. Which means I also write user guides. I try to make sure the users guides are as wordy and entertaining as possible so I don't have to worry about them being "right" or useful. :rofl:
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I call BS. I've never met a programmer in my life who provided useful comments in their code, or documented it in any useful form whatsoever. Then again, I reread what you said......and you've basically said the same thing I just did, but in a fun and witty way.

# added the below check to see if that ******* from marketing who complained about having to import a CSV is the one doing the downloading...and inserts extra commas so his spreadsheets
# are always clobbered and he has to spend a day reformatting them to make sense.
 
South Prairie Jim said:
Who told you vista is laying off workers and slowing production to inflate prices ?
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Been in at least 2 or 3 stock analysts reports, at least one of their press releases, and also in their 2021 financial report. It's not exactly hidden. They are a publicly traded company, and as far as any publicly traded company goes, their operations are quite transparent.
 
EricBu said:
I call BS. I've never met a programmer in my life who provided useful comments in their code, or documented it in any useful form whatsoever. Then again, I reread what you said......and you've basically said the same thing I just did, but in a fun and witty way.

# added the below check to see if that ******* from marketing who complained about having to import a CSV is the one doing the downloading...and inserts extra commas so his spreadsheets
# are always clobbered and he has to spend a day reformatting them to make sense.
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LOL!!! Code commentary is an artform.

Interesting how we have so many regional differences in component supply. I live in one of the most prosperous and populous states, yet we have almost NO supply of components and very little variety in what is found. Can't figure that one out, yet.
 
EricBu said:
I am not implying anything untoward, I am not in fact implying anything. Simply stating that business is about profit. I don't engage in business out of kindness, or a desire to socially empower others, or to make people happy. I do it to make money. Making people happy, and therefore satisfied with the service and product I provide, contributes to my profit. I have to balance customer desire against product pricing and supply. Vista is now operating in monopoly territory. They do NOT have to cater to the consumer at all. In fact by marginalizing their consumer sales, and deliberating keeping prices high, they are in fact being "good stewards" for their shareholders. This isn't nefarious, or untoward at all. You might as well hate a rattlesnake or a scorpion for being what it is. Some things just are, and always will be. In a perfect world, Vista would be forced to cater to their consumer base (us), and have a more competitive price structure, because of compeition. They currently do not have meaningful domestic competition. The "other" primer maker has never had the market share in the past, and simply cannot produce enough to make a meaningful dent in the demand. At this point in time. That may change. Imports may get easier. Ginis Unix may get a 250 million large pistol into the country and force Vista to be competitive for a while...or at least take a bit out of demand. We never know. But right now, as things stand...Vista has NO reason to not keep prices high, and every reason to keep them high.
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We’re still coming at this from different angles (but maybe toward same end). I don’t think the hobby is even on vista’s radar—too small a slice of the business—while you seem to think they are actually thinking of us. So maybe it’s not you being cynical, it’s me being naive.

That still leaves room for we’re on the radar and intentionally being throttled. Neither of us buy that one, do we?
 
EricBu said:
Been in at least 2 or 3 stock analysts reports, at least one of their press releases, and also in their 2021 financial report. It's not exactly hidden. They are a publicly traded company, and as far as any publicly traded company goes, their operations are quite transparent.
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Sorry, I’m just not buying it.
 
My opinion and only mine, nothing from cable news conspiracy devil box.
Not only have we had a ‘few’ more first time gun owners buying and stock piling ammunition. We have reloaders who have never bought a brick of primers now ordering quanities at a historical pace.
Maybe guys and gals getting layer off we’re not even in the primer dept. Maybe sleeping bag or bbq dept. Or like many just retired during the pandemic.
 
CQB45ACP said:
We’re still coming at this from different angles (but maybe toward same end). I don’t think the hobby is even on vista’s radar—too small a slice of the business—while you seem to think they are actually thinking of us. So maybe it’s not you being cynical, it’s me being naive.

That still leaves room for we’re on the radar and intentionally being throttled. Neither of us buy that one, do we?
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Oh yeah, I see where the miscommunication is...yes, to clarify, you are exactly right......we're not on their radar as hobbyists. We are on the radar as a non organic consumer of their primers. IE, let's list their market priorities: 1. Their lucrative Government contracts (this is lumping in mil, leo, everything). Those have performance penalties, and not fullfilling comes with a risk of being prevented from bidding on future contracts...so they're going to fill these ammo contracts first, and that means their primer production priority is to this first. 2. Their organic ammo brands..they now own what, 25 different brands of ammo? Have to look. Whether Fed, CCI, Remington, or any of the other brands under those umbrellas.....they're going to get the next priority for primer production. 3. Large customers - This could be other big ammo makers who've they not yet purchased, lol (Ammo Inc for example is a HUGE customer). Under this category we might see big box customers who have large purchasing power...like Cabellas, or Grafs for example, who can buy in big enough lots to make it worth vista's time. This is a "blurred" area, as this tier 3 of priority is also a point where their product trickles down to the small consumer and hobbyist. 4. Smaller distributers - this is where the bulk of LGS, boutique ammo makers, and power laoders and such get their product, and also where product trickles down to small consumers and hobbyist. So for us, we're looking at priority 3 or 4 for most of us. So we get ours after tier 1 and 2 have gotten theirs. Tier 3 and 4 is also where Vista can manipulate primer prices to keep them high for consumers. The cost is priced in at Tier 1 and 2 on their gov contracts, and their organic ammo production, and that is reflected in how they price their organic ammo sales, and how they compete on new contracts.
 
South Prairie Jim said:
Sorry, I’m just not buying it.
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You don't have to buy it, SEC filings, press releases, and financial reports are mostly free. You might have to pay for some of the more in depth analyst reports, but the info is there for free if you chase it. They have been very up front that they are no longer running a 3rd and 4th shift at two plants as of this year, and their production of both ammo, and primers has consequently tapered off. The data is out there if you want to chase it, personally I don't particularly care if you believe me....if I was wrong, you'd be paying 30/1K for primers right now.
 
EricBu said:
Oh yeah, I see where the miscommunication is...yes, to clarify, you are exactly right......we're not on their radar as hobbyists. We are on the radar as a non organic consumer of their primers. IE, let's list their market priorities: 1. Their lucrative Government contracts (this is lumping in mil, leo, everything). Those have performance penalties, and not fullfilling comes with a risk of being prevented from bidding on future contracts...so they're going to fill these ammo contracts first, and that means their primer production priority is to this first. 2. Their organic ammo brands..they now own what, 25 different brands of ammo? Have to look. Whether Fed, CCI, Remington, or any of the other brands under those umbrellas.....they're going to get the next priority for primer production. 3. Large customers - This could be other big ammo makers who've they not yet purchased, lol (Ammo Inc for example is a HUGE customer). Under this category we might see big box customers who have large purchasing power...like Cabellas, or Grafs for example, who can buy in big enough lots to make it worth vista's time. This is a "blurred" area, as this tier 3 of priority is also a point where their product trickles down to the small consumer and hobbyist. 4. Smaller distributers - this is where the bulk of LGS, boutique ammo makers, and power laoders and such get their product, and also where product trickles down to small consumers and hobbyist. So for us, we're looking at priority 3 or 4 for most of us. So we get ours after tier 1 and 2 have gotten theirs. Tier 3 and 4 is also where Vista can manipulate primer prices to keep them high for consumers. The cost is priced in at Tier 1 and 2 on their gov contracts, and their organic ammo production, and that is reflected in how they price their organic ammo sales, and how they compete on new contracts.
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You’re a softy after all…I wouldn’t have given us a tier at all.

Doesn’t Olin get big government ammo contracts too?
 
I haven't seen primers in big box sporting goods stores in a long, long time; that includes Bass Pro's flagship store in Springfield, MO. All I've seen has been in LGSs, for $175-200 per thousand. Heading to COS tomorrow morning to check their Bass Pro and Scheel's; hopefully my luck will finally turn....
 
EricBu said:
You don't have to buy it, SEC filings, press releases, and financial reports are mostly free. You might have to pay for some of the more in depth analyst reports, but the info is there for free if you chase it. They have been very up front that they are no longer running a 3rd and 4th shift at two plants as of this year, and their production of both ammo, and primers has consequently tapered off. The data is out there if you want to chase it, personally I don't particularly care if you believe me....if I was wrong, you'd be paying 30/1K for primers right now.
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I think it’s a leap to say they’re not running extra shifts so they can raise prices. Certainly their filings don’t say that? I think that’s the question.
 
CQB45ACP said:
You’re a softy after all…I wouldn’t have given us a tier at all.

Doesn’t Olin get big government ammo contracts too?
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Absolutely, but Winchester never had more than 10% of the consumer ammo and primer market, they've always concentrated more on their gov contracts. Remember, the Vista monopoly is still new, we've not seen the full impact. Several years ago, we had 4 major competing companies, they kept each other in check. Now we have 2, and 1 (Ohlin/Winchester) is a tiny player overall. I'm hoping they'll grow that side of the business. Their product is a solid 20% cheaper than Vista's at the distributor (tier 3 and 4) level right now...but they can't ship enough to hurt vista.
 
South Prairie Jim said:
Here’s a few minutes of reading material.
https://news.vistaoutdoor.com/press-releases
https://news.vistaoutdoor.com/press-releases
Click to expand...

Hahahah, I can tell you haven't actually read those. Read back a few, there's a little jewel in there. Also, understand, that's a press release...they aren't going to say "we're a monopoly now so are going to keep the prices high. Now that you've found those, you can probably chase down the SEC filings, and some of the stock anaylysts reports and forecasts. Hint: the stock anaylyst forecasts are where the really good dirt comes out.
 
GeoDudeFlorida said:
Yeah, funny thing about that is, I haven't had good results shooting banger-9mm in my .38Spl revolvers. o_O
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No? Maybe moon clips would help?

Seriously, my point was a lot of reloaders I know who “reload to shoot” vs. “shoot to reload” will buy loaded ammo when the price makes sense. $0.20 per round loaded was pretty close to that point when primers were less than $40 a brick. At $80 a brick, maybe that point is closer to $0.25
 
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