There are two main decisions to be made when it comes to carry:
1. Am I going to carry?
2. What am I going to carry?
When considering #1, the probability of needing a firearm should be considered in concert with the possible downside of needing one and not having it. How likely is it I will need a firearm and what will it cost me if I don't have one when I need it? THIS is the point where you concern yourself with the probabilities of needing a firearm.
IF you decide you will carry, then you are DONE with the probability of needing a firearm. You already used that to determine what your answer to #1 would be. Now you move on to #2 and it is governed by a different set of questions.
When considering #2, the concern is WHAT you will need it for. How many attackers am I likely to face, at what distances, and under what general circumstances? Or, maybe you'd rather look at it from the standpoint of: What am I willing to prepare for in terms of the size of handgun, the capacity, shootability and general performance class? Either one is a valid way to approach the problem. What is NOT valid during the phase of answering #2 is to go back and revisit the probabilities governing the answer to #1. You have already decided that you are going to carry--the probability of needing the gun is no longer relevant. Once you've already decided that you are going to prepare, now you're only deciding what you want to prepare for.
The problem a lot of people have is that they want to use the probability of needing a firearm to determine what kind of firearm they carry. That's all wrong. The probability of needing a firearm goes to determining whether to carry or not. To determine what you should carry, you look at what you will need it to do for you.
1. Am I going to carry?
2. What am I going to carry?
When considering #1, the probability of needing a firearm should be considered in concert with the possible downside of needing one and not having it. How likely is it I will need a firearm and what will it cost me if I don't have one when I need it? THIS is the point where you concern yourself with the probabilities of needing a firearm.
IF you decide you will carry, then you are DONE with the probability of needing a firearm. You already used that to determine what your answer to #1 would be. Now you move on to #2 and it is governed by a different set of questions.
When considering #2, the concern is WHAT you will need it for. How many attackers am I likely to face, at what distances, and under what general circumstances? Or, maybe you'd rather look at it from the standpoint of: What am I willing to prepare for in terms of the size of handgun, the capacity, shootability and general performance class? Either one is a valid way to approach the problem. What is NOT valid during the phase of answering #2 is to go back and revisit the probabilities governing the answer to #1. You have already decided that you are going to carry--the probability of needing the gun is no longer relevant. Once you've already decided that you are going to prepare, now you're only deciding what you want to prepare for.
The problem a lot of people have is that they want to use the probability of needing a firearm to determine what kind of firearm they carry. That's all wrong. The probability of needing a firearm goes to determining whether to carry or not. To determine what you should carry, you look at what you will need it to do for you.