That’s a simple one. To rule against us. Thankfully I’m on the side thinking they are going to rule for us, but I fully expect the decision to be a minefield of good news sprinkled with bad. Words “may, can, shall” are the triggers to these mines.Question for the naysayers. Why do you believe they would finally take this case after punting all others for a decade or so if they weren't planning on ruling in our favor?
If that was the case, logically, they had the numbers and more votes to rule against when it was 4-4 split with Roberts being the wildcard. Why wait until it's basically a 5-3 split with Roberts being the wildcard? Doesn't make much sense IMHO.That’s a simple one. To rule against us. Thankfully I’m on the side thinking they are going to rule for us, but I fully expect the decision to be a minefield of good news sprinkled with bad. Words “may, can, shall” are the triggers to these mines.
Just for clarity (you know, because I'm old and easily confused), when you say "SC," I presume you mean the Supreme Court? Not South Carolina?Some states require training in order to get a concealed permit. Today, those that do require a short, affordable, and sensible training that can be completed at effectively any gun range.
I can see NY requiring you to get expensive training from a police instructor, where there are very few slots available, and has to be renewed annually.
SC took off the table whether the permit itself is necessary, and isn't discussing what the terms or conditions of the permit are, other than whether the applicant needs to demonstrate a need.
But since they narrowed the ruling they could be specifically trying to set a basis for what “reasonable measures” should be taken for a person to carry a firearm “safely amongst the public”.If that was the case, logically, they had the numbers and more votes to rule against when it was 4-4 split with Roberts being the wildcard. Why wait until it's basically a 5-3 split with Roberts being the wildcard? Doesn't make much sense IMHO.
But since they narrowed the ruling they could be specifically trying to set a basis for what “reasonable measures” should be taken for a person to carry a firearm “safely amongst the public”.
Okay, still would be a favorable ruling nonetheless and would not be a ruling against us IMHO. A favorable ruling that would remove the century old law that prevents many NY residents from carrying outside of the home, as well as would force other states with simular regime to follow suit. Even with stipulations added to the ruling, those in May-Issue state will be better off from where they have been over the last century or so. I fail to see how that's a bad thing.But since they narrowed the ruling they could be specifically trying to set a basis for what “reasonable measures” should be taken for a person to carry a firearm “safely amongst the public”.
Unless they change to SHALL issue following a 160 hour training program (that’s ONLY a months working hours, with no absences) with limit to class size of 5 (because instructor needs to be able to ensure his pupils are adequately attentive) and pay a small fee of $5000 to apply with a 20 page questionnaire (gotta pay people to process paperwork, it’s not a fee to apply, it’s a fee to process). The last hurdle to jump is a fingerprint and overly thorough background check run signed off by law enforcement officials. All of this must be done within 45 days of start of the class (a month for the class and 2 weeks to finish paperwork seems reasonable on the face of it at least) and you have to show proof of concealed carry liability insurance to your sheriffs office when you pick up your license after a period of time for processing not to exceed 1 year, with no lapses from the date of application until current date.Okay, still would be a favorable ruling nonetheless and would not be a ruling against us IMHO. A favorable ruling that would remove the century old law that prevents many NY residents from carrying outside of the home, as well as would force other states with simular regime to follow suit. Even with stipulations added to the ruling, those in May-Issue state will be better off from where they have been over the last century. I fail to see how that's a bad thing.
Also, if they wanted to rule against us, they simply could have denied taking the case which would have allowed the lower court's ruling to stand and become case law.
Did we forget about Wrenn v. District of Columbia? DC strategically didn't appeal the case to a 5-4 SCOTUS because they feared a ruling that would affect May Issue states nationwide. The result of the was that DC not only did away with the Good Cause standard, but also allowed out of state residents to apply for carry permits. If NY loses and follows in DC's footsteps for the first time in over a century, citizens from the other 49 states would be able able to step foot into NY while armed.
Where does any of this happen in any other state? It does not happen in DC of all places or in CA. Does not happen in IL or any other state. I see no indication that SCOTUS would ever cosign all the mud some of you are throwing against the wall. The case has to be narrowly tailored to the facts that are before them. Expecting them to make a laundry list of requirements that, first off, NY is not even enacting (so they should not be ruling on it) and other requirements that no other state is even currently enacting, but that should be prohibited if ever enscted is not being realist and not how the courts usually opperate. They can not or at least should not be ruling on what NY or other state may do in the future. They typically deal with the submitted facts of the case before them. If NY goes nuclear after losing this fight, another lawsuit will have to be filed based on the text, implementation, and relitive details of what ever laws they enact. Again, it's not ideal and as they say, justice moves slowly, but this is the way our system is supposed to work, and it is slowly but surely working in our favor IMHO. Heller and McDonald wasn't perfect, but look how many more gun owners, conceal carriers, firearms in circulation, May Issue states, and Universal Carry states we have now vs before those rulings were handed down.Unless they change to SHALL issue following a 160 hour training program (that’s ONLY a months working hours, with no absences) with limit to class size of 5 (because instructor needs to be able to ensure his pupils are adequately attentive) and pay a small fee of $5000 to apply with a 20 page questionnaire (gotta pay people to process paperwork, it’s not a fee to apply, it’s a fee to process). The last hurdle to jump is a fingerprint and overly thorough background check run signed off by law enforcement officials. All of this must be done within 45 days of start of the class (a month for the class and 2 weeks to finish paperwork seems reasonable on the face of it at least) and you have to show proof of concealed carry liability insurance to your sheriffs office when you pick up your license after a period of time for processing not to exceed 1 year, with no lapses from the date of application until current date.
All of those things seem reasonable when applied to other things, so it’s not a stretch to apply them to firearms. Want to drive?- Get insurance. Want to carry?- Get insurance. Want to practice medicine? Here’s a packet to fill out for verification purposes... Want to carry? Here’s that packet. They could easily be trying to frame up some guardrails to keep the states on track, but that’s not typically how SC works. They will likely say in some fashion that limitations and permitting are legal and provisions for making those happen are therefore legal, but SC likely will not say where the boundary is between reasonable and unreasonable which in reality turns into reasonable encroachment on the rights or blatantly unconstitutional limitations. Even a ruling “in our favor” may be a slap in the face to the 2A and to gun owners as it may create as much confusion as it clarifies.
Don’t get me wrong, the justices that are in place currently seem like they are 2A friendly and may be swinging for the fences on this one, but more realistically I expect a middle of the road decision with long term pitfalls.
I see no indication that SCOTUS would ever cosign all the mud some of you are throwing against the wall. The case has to be narrowly tailored to the facts that are before them. Expecting them to make a laundry list of requirements that, first off, NY is not even enacting (so they should not be ruling on it) and other requirements that no other state is even currently enacting, but that should be prohibited is not being realist and not how the courts opperate.
That’s one of the points I was trying to make. SCOTUS rulings will typically boil down to either a hard yes, a hard no, or a yes or no with conditions. Those conditions often point towards what is or is not reasonable. The laundry list of things I put in my comment above are all things that seem very reasonable at a glance, but in practice are not feasible. So when the ruling comes out (if it’s as we collectively expect) and it all boils down to a point that A. Yes permit acquisitions are a reasonable limit to concealed carry, B. Reasonable accommodations for obtaining said permit must exist, C. Reasonable requirements may be established, and D. Reasonable limits may be applied to deny permit with cause.
We all expect A. If A exists then B must also exist. If there is a permit process then almost by definition a list of requirements must be met, thus necessitating C and D. It is absolutely reasonable to deny permit to a child, a convicted murderer, or a person deemed too violent or mentally incapable by some means, so what is missing is simply the guardrails telling what the boundaries are. Seems that constitutional carry would be the limit for least restrictive, so that is a natural barrier with essentially the only limit being that one must be able to legally possess whatever it is that they possess. The more restrictive boundary relies on being reasonable, and that is hard to put on paper, especially when that question is not even being asked. The question at hand is whether 2A extends beyond the home, and the most simple answers of yes or no realistically don’t mean much. It’s about limits on possession which would be decided based upon reason. It’s pretty strange the way the whole thing seems to be happening to begin with, and I already made the comment early on that it seems very odd and convoluted that SCOTUS is telling the challenger what challenge to present.
The comparison I heard at work a few minutes ago on this very topic seems a good analogy. There’s a question of if a guy can work, and it gets answered that yes he can work, but then he is expected to do what the boss says. He may end up wishing he was still asking whether or not he could work, even after the bills are paid. That’s what I expect. We get a ruling, but we may not like the back side of the ruling because of where it may lead.
If NY loses and follows in DC's footsteps for the first time in over a century, citizens from the other 49 states would be able able to step foot into NY while armed
I would not hold my breath to think any ruling coming from this case will have a bearing on how NYS treats non-residents. If we get a positive outcome which requires the state to abandon arbitrary standards of 'good cause' in their permitting process, it's not going to force them to have reciprocity with other states. It also will likely not require the state to grant permits to non-residents.
Whether the State's denial of petitioners' applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment
The right to vote is delimited by state boundaries.I would think that you couldn't interpret the Constitution such that the expression of a Constitutional right would be delimited by state borders. Certainly no other Constitutional rights are similarly constrained, that I can think of.
The right to vote is delimited by state boundaries.
What about the 15th, 19th, 24th, and 26th Amendments?Contrary to popular belief voting isn’t a right.
What about the 15th, 19th, 24th, and 26th Amendments?
.The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as the means to implement its power to appoint members of the Electoral College. U.S. Const., Art. II, §1.
I agree; however, I would have said the same thing about DC. They had worse gun laws than NY. Didn't allow functioning firearms in or outside the home at one point. For whatever reason, they offered nonresident permits when the law was changed .I would not hold my breath to think any ruling coming from this case will have a bearing on how NYS treats non-residents. If we get a positive outcome which requires the state to abandon arbitrary standards of 'good cause' in their permitting process, it's not going to force them to have reciprocity with other states. It also will likely not require the state to grant permits to non-residents.
I don't think you can. I can see a ruling in the future that will outlaw states not providing a path to carry in their state whether it be by reciprocity or nonresident permit.That is interesting - I would think that you couldn't interpret the Constitution such that the expression of a Constitutional right would be delimited by state borders. Certainly no other Constitutional rights are similarly constrained, that I can think of.
Heller stated that weapons in common use could not be banned. Lower activist courts purposely and knowing misapply Heller to fit their agenda. The Heller decision protects "assult weapons."I think the rewriting (what do I know, no Constitutional expert here) was to limit a decision to a tweak in NYS requirements that will not promote a national wide loosing of the carry regulations. Thus, I predict (haha) not much of a large implication. Look at Heller - the right to have a gun in the home but in NYS, that right was subject to the very nature of this case. Heller should have wiped out the NYS ability to deny law abiding citizens the right to have a handgun in the home. CA has it registry of acceptable and nonsensical guns you can have. How could that be acceptable if Heller had wide implications.
The emphasis on SD in Heller has been used repeated in the lower courts to support AWBs as you don't need that stuff for home defense in most situations. So expect, a tweak in NY but not a massive and permissive sea change in the country at large.
What about the 15th, 19th, 24th, and 26th Amendments?