Self Defense Statistics (Or Lack Of Them) For The Armed Citizen

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me said:
selection bias
Double Naught Spy said:
In fact, the outright bias indicates the data would be unreliable for trying to understand the general self defense situation.
+1. Somehow when he says it, it sounds better. Some folks have a gift.
Fred Fuller said:
What statistics we have seem to say that most of the time we won't have to draw.
Absolutely. That's why I was doubting that even a good dataset would change what I am doing. Because we already know that most probably, nothing is going to happen, so we don't need a firearm. We know that we are preparing for the highly improbable. So deciding whether to prepare for the improbable 2-shot gunfight or the improbable 30-shot gunfight is either a matter of taste, or arguing about angels on the head of a pin.
We want things to be predictable.
Sure. Our survival as a species has centered around predicting accurately; and failing that, around being prepared for the worst. How much ammo one carries probably correlates a bit (around here) to how much wood he stacks to get through winter: as much as you think you'll probably need; or that plus a lot extra.
 
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As has been pointed out, there is little in the way of reliable data to go on. The inherent flaws in the cited study have also been pointed out.

First, as said by double Naught Spy,
... the one [thing] that bothers me most is that the Armed Citizen is all about success stories...people with guns doing good. Conclusions draw from the Armed Citizen don't include all the times people performed in the exact same ways and were killed as a result. In order for the data to be reliable in terms of being usefully representative, you need the failures, but also, a lot of those folks are dead.

For all we know, things done in those successful engagments may actually be things often unsuccessful in the failed engagments. That is a real problem and represents a huge bias in the data.

Again from DNS:
Is there a more reliable data set? Probably not, but given that we know that the Armed Citizen data are heavily biased to self defense success stories at the expense of not including failure stories, the notion of "more reliable data" is something of a joke. The Armed Citizen stories may be individually accurate, but as a data set should not be considered reliable in any way. In fact, the outright bias indicates the data would be unreliable for trying to understand the general self defense situation.

My primary concerns are (1) the fact that the data are limited to successful defensive actions; (2) the fact that the majority of the actions reported involve indoor attacks, which is counter to crime statistics; (3) the fact that the data cannot be verified; and (4) the conclusions drawn, discussed as follows:
At this distances [slightly less than arm's length], even .22s and .25s are highly immediately lethal.
That appears to contradict most lethality data, which indicate that the majority of persons hit by handgun bullets survive, but more importantly, it has little to do with defensive effectiveness.

The perceived need for massive quantities of ammo, reloading, and precision shooting at distance is largely a figbar of people's imaginations.
What perceived need?

There is simply no evidence to support the contention that any of those conditions occur during armed confrontation involving the Private Citizen.
A more accurate statement would be "the reports do not show....".

While shooting at a distance is rare in civilian self defense, Tom Givens' study does relate one such case.

In 80% of cases, the firearm was obtained from a place of storage, frequently in another room. .... The defender(s) ... had time to access even weapons that were stored in other rooms and bring them to bear.
One has to ask what happened when the defender did is not have time to access a weapon from another room.

Fact is, such an incident would not be described in The Armed Citizen.
 
Quote:
At this distances [slightly less than arm's length], even .22s and .25s are highly immediately lethal.

That appears to contradict most lethality data, which indicate that the majority of persons hit by handgun bullets survive, but more importantly, it has little to do with defensive effectiveness.

I would say that immediately rendering an attacker DRT has a whole lot to do with "defensive effectiveness." Speaking for myself, that's what I'm looking for when the shoot decision is made.

BTW, I can provide plenty of examples of instant lethality of .22s. E.g., Female motel clerk kills robber
 
I can provide plenty of examples of instant lethality of .22s
And you therefore think that there are not even more examples of .22s NOT being instantly lethal? To the extent that your database doesn't reflect that, but it is in fact true "out in the real world"...well, that's the issue.
 
Here are some points to consider. All of these shootings involve people in plain civilian clothing, but armed. FBI and DEA agents are law enforcement officers, but they are usually in plain clothing with guns concealed, and thus are indistinguishable from private citizens.

Shooting Incidents, Common Factors

1. FBI Agent Involved Shootings, 1989-1994

Average 20-30 shootings per year, typically in plain civilian clothing
FBI agents don’t do patrol work, don’t police bars, don’t answer domestic disturbance calls—their shootings closely parallel those of private citizens.
Roughly one half of FBI involved shootings occur because of a criminal attempting to rob or assault what they think is a private citizen, who turns out to be an FBI agent.
92% occurred at 6-10 feet
Average rounds fired= 3.2
At 21-50 feet the average number of rounds fired jumped to 6.36

2. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Discharge Report, 2007
56 incidents in which shots were fired
12 were accidental discharges, usually during cleaning (clear your gun!)
Of the 44 defensive shootings:
Average distance was 14.6 feet (about the length of a car).
Average number of shots fired 5.

3. Rangemaster Student Involved Shootings
56 incidents to date (Jan 2012). Of these, 10 were selected for a presentation at the 2008 Tactical Conference and the NTI. Of those ten representative shootings:
5 of 10 involved an armed robbery by one or two suspects;
3 occurred on mall parking lots, only one occurred in home;
In all but one, the range was inside the length of a large car/SUV;
4 out of 10 incidents involved 2 or more suspects;
Average number of shots fired 3.8 (low-1, high-11).

Common Threads:
FBI: 6-10 feet/DEA: 14.6 feet/ Rangemaster: 4-15 feet/ 1 car length (average sedan 16’ long)
FBI Agents, DEA Agents, and civilians with carry permits wear their guns in plain civilian clothing, concealed. Plain clothing, gun concealed, but need fast concealed access.
High probability of more than one assailant.
Most occur in public areas, parking lots, malls, NOT at home.
Out of 56 incidents, only 5 occurred in the home (less than 10%) The majority happen in public commercial areas, such as the parking lot of a store.
 
More of the same. Mostly armed robbery attempts, including car-jackings and parking lot robberies, plus a few burglaries. One targeted attack, by the subject of a restraining order, and one attack by a mental case.
 
You all can talk all you want. But knowing your gun and hours of range time will make a big diffrent. And how handy is your gun. When my kids was little my guns was not as handy as I like them ! Now they are very handy in every room! And none are less than a 357
 
And you therefore think that there are not even more examples of .22s NOT being instantly lethal?

I have posed the following question to an active list of 700 firearms instructors and three other caliber obsessed forums, which was viewed over 5000 times, in total.

I am looking for incidents where the would be victim shot their attacker with a small caliber weapon (.22, .25, .32, .380) and, after the shot was fired, was injured or killed by the predator.

Only incidents involving Armed Citizens are relevant to this research, NOT Law Enforcement Officers. That is to say, I am looking for "mousegun" failures in the hands of Private Citizens.

To date, I have received one (1) verifiable response, Sammy Fouts in 1995. I did find one other on my own from 2010; talking with the detective in charge of the investigation was interesting and enlightening. There were frequent citations of enemy fighters overseas not responding to multiple 5.56 hits and police officers with service pistols who had to ventilate criminals they were trying to subjugate, but an embarrassing lack of ability to support the thesis that small caliber weapons are worthless in the context of use by Private Citizens in this country.

The responses I did receive fell into the "shoulda, woulda, coulda (SWC)" category. She Shoulda had a bigger gun, because if he Woulda been a more determined adversary, it Coulda turned out differently. Or some other non-response such as "Failures of .22 in civilian hands is not something I can quote off the top of my head," i.e., "I am not able to support my position with any meaningful verifiable data."

it is in fact true "out in the real world"...well, that's the issue.

That thesis remains unsupported by any facts that anyone has been able to demonstrate so far.

With the apparent plethora of .22 failures in the ether, I woulda expected more anecdotes that coulda supported the point.

I am still open to any verifiable incidents to support that thesis.
 
Actually I did see Greg's study; he's a friend of mine.

.22 (short, long and long rifle)
% of hits that were fatal - 34% (the number sounds familiar, have I heard it somewhere before?)
Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.38
% of people who were not incapacitated - 31%
One-shot-stop % - 31%
Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 60%

.40 S&W
# of people shot - 188
# of hits - 443
% of hits that were fatal - 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.36
% of people who were not incapacitated - 13%
One-shot-stop % - 45%
Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 52%

I'd say the .22 showed pretty well in that. Interestingly, Greg carries a .22 at times, also.
 
That thesis remains unsupported by any facts that anyone has been able to demonstrate so far.
Completely untrue.

Even before talking about studies (like the one already mentioned above), in that statement you are basically ignoring common sense, and calling (among others) the police and military fools for carrying more expensive and heavier recoiling guns when .22s and .25 are "highly immediately lethal".

We do in fact have large injury databases (peruse WISQARS, fo example) that show us that the number of firearms injuries greatly exceeds the number of firearms deaths. And yet, you expect us to believe that, as soon as we narrow the focus to .22 and .25 handgun SD shootings by non-LEO, these calibers become magic.

No. They only do if we enter the world of "The Armed Citizen" column, which is preselected by the editors at the NRA for successful (and legal) self-defense shootings.

Then of course we have Marshall and Sanow's data (you did say any facts) puts the "instant effectiveness" of .22 LR at about 30%, a figure that seems to include rifle shootings; and .25 at about 20%.

Finally, there is an implication in your statement about my claim being "unsupported" that your "study" somehow supports the contention that .22s and .25s are "highly immediately lethal". Because of selection bias, your compliation of editor-selected, newspaper-reported anecdotes supports conclusions about NOTHING except what type of shootings editors like to select.

I am not sure what reason you may have for claiming otherwise. But you are doing no one a service by claiming such absurdity--least of all yourself.
I'd say the .22 showed pretty well in that.
So: 60% is consistent with the claim of "highly immediately lethal"? Well, 'kay: I don't think "highly immediately lethal" actually means "60% effective in stopping the attack without necessarily killing the attacker;" if you do, thanks for clarifying. As I said, we do have a countering database that puts the effectiveness down at 20-30%; and neither one has anything to do with "immediate lethality."

And I take it, by the way, that you carry ONLY a .22LR derringer, based on your "study" and the dependable findings therein?
 
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Posted by HeadJunter: I have posed the following question [(I am looking for incidents where the would be victim shot their attacker with a small caliber weapon (.22, .25, .32, .380) and, after the shot was fired, was injured or killed by the predator to an active list of 700 firearms instructors and three other caliber obsessed forums, which was viewed over 5000 times, in total)].
Ah, the scientific method.

That thesis [that there are more examples ot .22s Not being instantly lethal] remains unsupported by any facts that anyone has been able to demonstrate so far.
I respectfully suggest that that is not true.

I am still open to any verifiable incidents to support that thesis.
Your data in Post #37 support that thesis. And there are plenty of medical textbooks on the subject. Or you could ask a trauma specialist in a major urban hospital. The doctor who lives up the street from me sees gunshot wounds on a regular basis.

In self defense, lethality is not the objective, and a fatal wound, even a wound that destroys the heart, can fail to prevent an assailant from firing a weapon at point blank range. Moreover, responsibly conducted studies indicate that no handgun is a reliable stopper. But when one must rely upon a handgun for defense, most authorities recommend something larger than a .22 rimfire or a .25 ACP.

The reasons are not because those authorities are "caliber obsessed"--they have to do with ballistics. Here is a pretty good discussion of the subject.

From the conclusion:

The critical element is penetration. The bullet must pass through the large, blood bearing organs and be of sufficient diameter to promote rapid bleeding. Penetration less than 12 inches is too little, and, in the words of two of the participants in the 1987 Wound Ballistics Workshop, "too little penetration will get you killed." Given desirable and reliable penetration, the only way to increase bullet effectiveness is to increase the severity of the wound by increasing the size of hole made by the bullet. Any bullet which will not penetrate through vital organs from less than optimal angles is not acceptable. Of those that will penetrate, the edge is always with the bigger bullet.

That would tend to indicate against the selection of a .22, .25, or .32 if there are other choices.
 
I'm not a doctor, and I never even played one on teevee. But I did spend a few years running ambulance and rescue as an EMT. A certain number of the calls we responded to involved GSWs. My own personal database was not large, because the area we worked (small town and rural central Alabama in the mid to late 1970s) was hardly anything that could be considered a combat zone.

But we worked a few shootings that involved small caliber firearms. In the then and there, we saw .25ACPs and .22 rimfires at the lower end of the caliber spectrum and not much else, there weren't a lot of .32s or .380s running around. That small database led me to believe that there were two things that counted much more than caliber - placement and penetration. What physical structures a bullet intersects and damages in its path are what determines how much damage it does and how quickly it produces effects that lead to a cessation of action.

And that's it, as far as physiological effects are concerned, as far as I know. Of course, the psychological effects of gunfire are another thing entirely.

Placement and penetration. I don't by any means account myself an expert, given my limited education and training in the field of emergency medicine and my limited experience with hands on bleeding patients. But given what I have seen with my own eyes, and sorted either onto gurneys or into body bags, my conclusion way back then was that what mattered most was placement and penetration. I had a concealed carry permit at the time, I carried a concealed sidearm even on calls. The organizations I worked with were all volunteer, and most of us carried - these were the days before the FD and the medics waited for LEOs to declare the scene secure before we responded. We went when and where we were called and sometimes things were still ... unsettled ... when we got there. And the first thing we were taught in EMT class was, don't become part of the problem. :D

I had more than a passing interest in the effects of gunfire on people and things back then. I've maintained that interest in the years since, which is why discussions like this one still interest me.
 
Here's a point that I'm not seeing (talking to some of the players in this conversation).

We are talking about instant incapacitation, etc. and the dynamics of what brings that about.

But - do we know the following:

What is the probability that the crime continues (the rape, the break-in, the stop and rob, etc.) if the bad person takes a round?

Isn't that the goal? I don't recall seeing breakdowns like that.

One considers:

1. Gun presented, BG flees
2. Gun fired, misses - BG flees
3. Shot hits - does the crime continue? Are there significant difference in crime completion with various rounds given the BG didn't DRT.

Do bad guys hit with a 22 LR or 25 ACP shrug it off and continue to attack at a rate different from other rounds if they are not DRT?

If the net rate of crime stopping (flee or DRT) is not different from various hits at a value large enough to disqualify some guns, then the argument is moot for a practical civilian usage.

Thus, if the arthritic grandperson manages to put a 22 LR from a Bearcat into the crook who ceases the crime (however that happens) because they cannot use a 12 gauge, isn't that a nice enough outcome?

There is a tendency to see a false dichotomy (which Claude is speaking to) - carry the full gear or don't carry at all. For those of us who can carry and train with the major handgun calibers (9s, 40, 45 - no difference nowadays), that's great. But it would be stupid for folks not to carry a lesser gun or me not to carry just my 642 or 432 if that what works on a given day. The benefit of the latter far aways any perceived difference in DRT rates.

Now, if I run into Mumbai at the Mall (and can't FIT [flee in terror]), yes I would like the Bat belt. I use the flashlight a great deal for finding things, the knife for opening things, etc. But faced with the single mugger, the J works as Mugger Be Gone.

It's not dichotomous, it's a risk continuum and you decided what cutoff level you want to deal with. It's a piece of cake. Of course, the Black Swan can crap on your slice.

Jim Higgenbotham illustrates folks who took major firepower and continued the action long enough to do harm. Thus, one might by the dichotomous logic argue that we all carry Barretts.
 
Posted by GEM: Do bad guys hit with a 22 LR or 25 ACP shrug it off and continue to attack at a rate different from other rounds if they are not DRT?
That's the real question, of course.

And the answer is very variable, I think.

What are the condition and motivation of the assailant(s), and at what point in the course of the crime does the hit occur?

Is it a crime of opportunity to grab a purse, any purse, some time during the evening, or does the attacker have a very pressing need to take my car right now to avoid capture and going back into prison, or a pressing need to take my money from the ATM to pay a dangerous gang leader before an impending deadline, or to take my money right now to satisfy a very pressing need for drugs?

Does he feel that upon being shot he still has the opportunity to withdraw, or has the sight of may firearm made him believe that his only way to survive depends on his shooting or slashing me?

Is he enraged, on drugs, or both?

That brings to mind two things covered in the aforementioned FBI report, HANDGUN WOUNDING FACTORS AND EFFECTIVENESS.

The first is discussed in the section on "The human Target":

Psychological factors are probably the most important relative to achieving rapid incapacitation from a gunshot wound to the torso. Awareness of the injury (often delayed by the suppression of pain); fear of injury, death, blood, or pain; intimidation by the weapon or the act of being shot; preconceived notions of what people do when they are shot; or the simple desire to quit can all lead to rapid incapacitation even from minor wounds.

This is repeated in the section on The Allure of Shooing Incident Analyses:

Further, it appears that many people are predisposed to fall down when shot. This phenomenon is independent of caliber, bullet, or hit location, and is beyond the control of the shooter. It can only be proven in the act, not predicted. It requires only two factors to be effected: a shot and cognition of being shot by the target. Lacking either one, people are not at all predisposed to fall down and don’t. Given this predisposition, the choice of caliber and bullet is essentially irrelevant.

A .32 ACP may obviously suffice, but for...

However, psychological factors are also the primary cause of incapacitation failures.

The individual may be unaware of the wound and thus has no stimuli to force a reaction. Strong will, survival instinct, or sheer emotion such as rage or hate can keep a grievously injured individual fighting, as is common on the battlefield and in the street. The effects of chemicals can be powerful stimuli preventing incapacitation. Adrenaline alone can be sufficient to keep a mortally wounded adversary functioning. Stimulants, anesthetics, pain killers, or tranquilizers can all prevent incapacitation by suppressing pain, awareness of the injury, or eliminating any concerns over the injury. Drugs such as cocaine, PCP, and heroin are disassociative in nature. One of their effects is that the individual "exists" outside of his body. He sees and experiences what happens to his body, but as an outside observer who can be unaffected by it yet continue to use the body as a tool for fighting or resisting.

This is again repeated:

The problem, and the reason for seeking a better cartridge for incapacitation, is that individual who is not predisposed to fall down. Or the one who is simply unaware of having been shot by virtue of alcohol, adrenaline, narcotics, or the simple fact that in most cases of grievous injury the body suppresses pain for a period of time. Lacking pain, there may be no physiological effect of being shot that can make one aware of the wound. Thus the real problem: if such an individual is threatening one’s life, how best to compel him to stop by shooting him?

Another thing covered in the report apples more directly to the heart of this discussion. That is the discussion in the section on The Allure of Shooting Incident Analyses on the limitations of using limited actual data to form bases for conclusions:

The factors governing incapacitation of the human target are many, and variable....... Probably more people in this country have been killed by .22 rimfires than all other calibers combined, which, based on body count, would compel the use of .22’s for self-defense. The more important question, which is sadly seldom asked, is what did the individual do when hit?

There is a problem in trying to assess calibers by small numbers of shootings. For example, as has been done, if a number of shootings were collected in which only one hit was attained and the percentage of one shot stops was then calculated, it would appear to be a valid system. However, if a large number of people are predisposed to fall down, the actual caliber and bullet are irrelevant. What percentage of those stops were thus preordained by the target? How many of those targets were not at all disposed to fall down? How many multiple shot failures to stop occurred? What is the definition of a stop? What did the successful bullets hit and what did the unsuccessful bullets hit? How many failures were in the vital organs, and how many were not? How many of the successes? What is the number of the sample? How were the cases collected? What verifications were made to validate the information? How can the verifications be checked by independent investigation?

Because of the extreme number of variables within the human target, and within shooting situations in general, even a hundred shootings is statistically insignificant. If anything can happen, then anything will happen, and it is just as likely to occur in your ten shootings as in ten shootings spread over a thousand incidents.

The difference between civilian self defense and LEO applications has been mentioned several times in this discussion.

Let me offer the following opinion. In terms of the penetration and placement and the number of hits required to stop one or more attacking violent criminal actors with a handgun, it makes no difference whether the shooter is a deputy sheriff or a retired accountant.

It is when the sworn officer, who is not afforded the luxury of retreat, is in pursuit of a suspect that his extra high capacity magazines make an important difference, and it is when the sworn officer is faced with shooting a criminal through plate glass or an auto body that the extra performance of his .40 S&W with +P rounds becomes very desirable, as compared to the century old .38 Special.

My wife does not go to the drive though ATM alone. We want two sets of eyes and hands. And we go only in the daytime.

We live in the number one county in the number one state in the nation for methamphetamine production.

By the way, my J-Frame is more often than not the weapon of choice. I do not carry +P rounds.

I consider it the bare minimum.

Yes, it's a continuum, not an all or nothing proposition.
 
The conclusion is that while we can carry more efficacious rounds (although defining that with handguns is problem - quality - 9s, 38s, 40s, 45s - all seem to be the standard) - the benefit of the smaller calibers is so great that not carrying such at all is foolish.

That seems to be subtext of some - don't carry if you can't carry a blaster.

Great discussion - BTW.

Since I also carry a J quite a bit - I took Claude's class when Karl Rehn hosted it and wrote it up for Pax in Concealed Carry.
 
Do bad guys hit with a 22 LR or 25 ACP shrug it off and continue to attack at a rate different from other rounds if they are not DRT?
This is a very fair question.

My answer is that some bad guys flee at the suggestion or sight of a gun. Some, if you shoot (don't have to hit them); and some if you hit them any old where. All of these bad guys will be unaffected by your choice of caliber.

Some bad guys will stop if you "change their channel": hit them "enough" so that they suddenly decide they have something more important to do than continue their attack. Something like get out of your line of fire and figure out if they've just been fatally wounded. And some bad guys won't stop until they are physically unable to continue the attack. I think these two types of attackers ARE affected by your caliber choice, even if I can't prove that.
don't carry if you can't carry a blaster.
I haven't caught that idea from anyone in this discussion. However, the standard truism of concealed carry is "Carry the most powerful round you can shoot well; in the biggest pistol that you can conceal." Not sure why, if I can conceal a .45 1911 and shoot it well, I should feel just as good about carrying a Baby Browning.

I freely and fully admit to bias on this topic. But I consider it very reasonable bias, and I have trouble envisioning the study that would convince me to carry the Baby Browning.
 
I was speaking to Claude's
What I did want to accomplish is get past the thinking that unless one carries a service size weapon, three spare magazines, two flashlights, a pair of fighting knives, a backup gun that is a smaller version of the service weapon, a "blowout kit", and a partridge in pear tree that one is not going to survive a criminal encounter. That doesn't mirror my own experience and I can demonstrate it doesn't mirror the experiences of a lot of other people.

Also, common internet crap like if you shoot a 25 ACP, they will take it away and blah, blah.

Like I said, if that' all I have, I prefer to start a fight (god forbid) by shooting the BG with it rather than not.

Note - I carry a 9 or 38 for EDC and practice with such. But if I could only access one of my fun 22 LRs - I certainly wouldn't disdain to use it.
 
One mechanical aspect not covered is ease of getting that shot placement. I have a Model 63 S&W .22LR that is much more easily shot than my .38 J frame. I also have a Beretta 950 (.25 ACP) that is very accurate.

Probably can't generate the data, but I'd speculate that what enables those smaller calibers to "play bigger" may be the lack of noise, muzzle blast and recoil.
 
In idle moments I've sometimes wished that every single state that offers concealed carry permits, in the process of renewing said permits, would conduct a simple anonymous survey covering defensive use of firearms by the permit holder in the previous permit period. It still wouldn't be perfect, but it could offer us a clearer picture of just how often armed citizens were forced to access their weapons in self defense, even with no shots fired.

That would be a toughie to pull off Fred. Here in Florida, CC falls under the Dept of Agriculture. It was almost like the state decided that this was the dept that had the time to take care of it without bothering other depts. It seems to me that federally they would red tape themseves to death trying to co-ordinate data. I think the states would have to get together and consolidate the jurisdiction before they even had a shot at that. Just my opinion...
 
I apologize for this question in advance. Wondering what caliber stone David used to kill Goliath with? Knowing I should be serious about this subject but apparently this is a debate to what end? Since everyone has their opinions and sees flaws in each others point of view/ information base then this is just words for the sake of words.
 
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