State Level Firearm Concealed-Carry Legislation and Rates of Homicide and Other Violent Crime

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This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime
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Surprising to me. Under the heading of ‘an armed society is a polite society’, I would think having more people armed would result in a reduction of violent crime. At least, that’s what you hear and read...all those ‘instances’ of a crime being thwarted because the ‘victim’ has a gun.....
 
FFGColorado said:
Surprising to me. Under the heading of ‘an armed society is a polite society’, I would think having more people armed would result in a reduction of violent crime. At least, that’s what you hear and read...all those ‘instances’ of a crime being thwarted because the ‘victim’ has a gun.....
Click to expand...

An armed society being a polite society is based on a fictional book about a dystopian society that is polite, but also VERY VIOLENT. Everybody always leaves out the rest of that quote that basically says a person must be ready to defend their lives for the slightest transgressions.

Here is the other half... Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.

Read the book, Lost Horizon by Robert Heinlein. You won't be impressed with the armed society. It is a very stupid model/concept on which to base pro-gun arguments.

Lots of the most violent cities in the US are in states with concealed and/or open carry. Crime rates do go up and down whether or not a tiny tiny smattering of people in that society are armed. Crime does not actually correlate well one way or the other with concealed carry. However, I will go back to the statistic I enjoy most because it is from my state. Texas got concealed carry in 1996 and pro gun folks noted that crime went down and went down for several years. Never mind that crime was going down all over the country or that the trend in Texas started years BEFORE concealed carry was enacted. People see what they want to see.

That the study found no correlation between concealed carry legislation and a rise in violent crime is no surprise. Why? For the same reason that crime doesn't go down, either. There are many other factors that have a much more significant impact on crime rates than a few people carrying guns.
 
Double Naught Spy said:
That the study found no correlation between concealed carry legislation and a rise in violent crime is no surprise. Why? For the same reason that crime doesn't go down, either. There are many other factors that have a much more significant impact on crime rates than a few people carrying guns.
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^^^my thoughts exactly. While opening up CWC did not result(according to this study) in the wild west scenario so many feared, apparently it did not reduce the threat to most of us from being murdered or the victim of other violent crimes. I would be interested in a study of impact on lesser crimes too, like muggings, robberies and home invasions..
 
ever put 2 + 2 together and think that if a robber, who wants drugs or food, who is turned away when they come up against someone who is armed, is still in a situation where they are just going to keep looking until they find a person who they can victimise. so, the study IMHO implies things that are not likely reality. just becuase there was not less statistical crime, does not mean people who carry do not have a way lower risk of being a victim. that is an extrapolation of data that isn't valid. it is like the statistic - 50% of all marriages end in divorce. most people think that means if you get married you have a 50% chance of getting divorced, but it does not mean that. The actual percentage of people who get divorced is like 12%. It is the people who get divorded 17 times, that make that statistic seems to dramatic and most divorces are people who are on a long path of countless divorces, and the people who report on such things, lie to you when they quote that statistic to you - to make marriage seem risky and undesireable, becuase they have an agenda and lie to you, for what it is worth. Fake News as they say ... what is the quote - lies, dang lies, and statistics ...
 
Double Naught Spy said:
That the study found no correlation between concealed carry legislation and a rise in violent crime is no surprise. Why? For the same reason that crime doesn't go down, either. There are many other factors that have a much more significant impact on crime rates than a few people carrying guns.
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In scientific study, this is the correlation/causation conundrum. I would very much like to read this whole study to see what their inclusion/exclusion criteria was for the data they used. Happily, this new study can be shown to legislators that think more "gun control" will mean less "gun violence", but most of the time, their agendas are diametrically opposed to what science tells them anyway. I'm also quite surprised that this study came out of that Journal. Many of the people who own/edit/review these scientific journals have a very particular political lean to them, and tend to not release data that is opposed to their political leanings.
 
To prevent this being a drive-by, here's the text summary from the article:
Background
Over the last 30 years, public opinion and state level legislation regarding the concealed-carry of firearms have shifted dramatically. Previous studies of potential effects have yielded mixed results, making policy recommendations difficult. We investigated whether liberalization of state level concealed-carry legislation was associated with a change in the rates of homicide or other violent crime.
Study Design
Data on violent crime and homicide rates were collected from the US Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) over 30 years, from 1986 to 2015. State level concealed-carry legislation was evaluated each study year on a scale including “no carry,” “may issue,” “shall issue,” and “unrestricted carry.” Data were analyzed using general multiple linear regression models with the log event rate as the dependent variable, and an autoregressive correlation structure was assumed with generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimates for standard errors.
Results
During the study period, all states moved to adopt some form of concealed-carry legislation, with a trend toward less restrictive legislation. After adjusting for state and year, there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive to nonrestrictive carry legislation on violent crime and public health indicators. Adjusting further for poverty and unemployment did not significantly influence the results.
Conclusions
This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime. Policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm-related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention.
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The reference bibliography has some fascinating publications in it.
(Hot link references retained, w/o valid link verification):
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FFGColorado said:
Surprising to me. Under the heading of ‘an armed society is a polite society’, I would think having more people armed would result in a reduction of violent crime. At least, that’s what you hear and read...all those ‘instances’ of a crime being thwarted because the ‘victim’ has a gun.....
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Or just maybe the crime rates would have been much worse without more legal concealed carriers.
 
As DNS said, Heinlein's society was unpleasant. It was a genetically determined autocracy with folks categorized by their genetic profile. One should breed according to your duty to your genetic caste. It was not a nice place.

The hero was so fed up with the gunfights and posturing, he considered dropping carry to wear a brassard announcing that he was unarmed and thus could not be challenged to a fight. However, you went to the end of the line and had to comply to the armed populace. He was talked out of it and to do his 'genetic' duty.

One interesting nuance is that he carried a replica 1911 instead of an energy weapon. When it blew a bloody hole in someone, rather than a neat cauterized little hole, the victim was shocked.

Heinlein went off the deep end in later books with a touch of bizarre sexuality.
 
film495 said:
ever put 2 + 2 together and think that if a robber, who wants drugs or food, who is turned away when they come up against someone who is armed, is still in a situation where they are just going to keep looking until they find a person who they can victimise. so, the study IMHO implies things that are not likely reality. just becuase there was not less statistical crime, does not mean people who carry do not have a way lower risk of being a victim. that is an extrapolation of data that isn't valid. Fake News as they say ... what is the quote - lies, dang lies, and statistics ...
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IMHO, extrapolation is about all one can do from the linked article. I am not about to " to read this article in full you will need to make a payment". The article does not tell us if the act was or was not actually completed or if the numbers are based on "attempts" in which there would still be a victim. Unless one is open carrying(and this linked article is about CWC) how does just CWCing, reduce the number of attempts and create for you, as you claim "a way lower risk of being a victim." IMHO, my extrapolation is just as valid as yours. What I have seen on so many of these types of forums is that by just CWCing, one becomes automatically impervious from danger from others. I CWC and I have weapons within reach from my bed. Still, those will not prevent someone form attempting to mug me, car jack my vehicle or stop them from attempting to forcibly enter my home. It may reduce the chance of me dying or being otherwise injured during the attempt, but it will not prevent the attempt.
 
buck460XVR said:
IMHO, extrapolation is about all one can do from the linked article. I am not about to " to read this article in full you will need to make a payment". The article does not tell us if the act was or was not actually completed or if the numbers are based on "attempts" in which there would still be a victim. Unless one is open carrying(and this linked article is about CWC) how does just CWCing, reduce the number of attempts and create for you, as you claim "a way lower risk of being a victim." IMHO, my extrapolation is just as valid as yours. What I have seen on so many of these types of forums is that by just CWCing, one becomes automatically impervious from danger from others. I CWC and I have weapons within reach from my bed. Still, those will not prevent someone form attempting to mug me, car jack my vehicle or stop them from attempting to forcibly enter my home. It may reduce the chance of me dying or being otherwise injured during the attempt, but it will not prevent the attempt.
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I agree with you completely, I was just trying to make the point that what the article implies, it not way makes even a reasonable effort to prove. As an aside, and I don't know if this is accurate or not, but have heard and read consistently - that simply having a firearm puts an end to a high percentage 90%ish, of robberies, assaults, street crime, cause as soon as the perpetrator sees that there is a firearm in the posession of their possible target, they abort - and move on to find an easier target. So, yea - I don't now if it is accurate or provable, but that says to me - carrying reduces your risk by like 90% out of the gate. It doesn't help the next person who that same person may go mug, cause they still need to eat, or buy drugs or whatever .. so, it is what it is. The article, IMHO is trying to make the impression that carrying is of no value to the person carrying, and at a Macro level statistic level, that may very well be true, but - for the Micro level, having a firearm to actually protect yourself and others, is very valuable to not being a victim - but, it doesn't mean someone else isn't just going to take the role of victim in your place, as they are a softer target. I've never been involved in any of this stuff - so, it is just the impression I've gotten from info I've seen - which may very well be as misleading as the article this thread is about.
 
Double Naught Spy said:
An armed society being a polite society is based on a fictional book about a dystopian society that is polite, but also VERY VIOLENT. Everybody always leaves out the rest of that quote that basically says a person must be ready to defend their lives for the slightest transgressions.
Here is the other half... Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.
Read the book, Lost Horizon by Robert Heinlein. You won't be impressed with the armed society. It is a very stupid model/concept on which to base pro-gun arguments.
Lots of the most violent cities in the US are in states with concealed and/or open carry. Crime rates do go up and down whether or not a tiny tiny smattering of people in that society are armed. Crime does not actually correlate well one way or the other with concealed carry. However, I will go back to the statistic I enjoy most because it is from my state. Texas got concealed carry in 1996 and pro gun folks noted that crime went down and went down for several years. Never mind that crime was going down all over the country or that the trend in Texas started years BEFORE concealed carry was enacted. People see what they want to see.
That the study found no correlation between concealed carry legislation and a rise in violent crime is no surprise. Why? For the same reason that crime doesn't go down, either. There are many other factors that have a much more significant impact on crime rates than a few people carrying guns.
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buck460XVR said:
^^^my thoughts exactly. While opening up CWC did not result(according to this study) in the wild west scenario so many feared, apparently it did not reduce the threat to most of us from being murdered or the victim of other violent crimes. I would be interested in a study of impact on lesser crimes too, like muggings, robberies and home invasions..
Click to expand...

While that violence may not have decreased, does not most of it happen in major metropolitan areas that usually deny CC within their borders? The outlying areas where CC is allowed/accepted, the overall likelihood of violence is less than those nearby cities and, as such, makes little impact on the violence in the area.
 
JTHunter said:
While that violence may not have decreased, does not most of it happen in major metropolitan areas that usually deny CC within their borders? The outlying areas where CC is allowed/accepted, the overall likelihood of violence is less than those nearby cities and, as such, makes little impact on the violence in the area.
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I would have thought the study would have considered this, since it's all about the effect of CWC on crime. But again, who knows, info given in the linked article was vague and brief.
 
film495 said:
...it is like the statistic - 50% of all marriages end in divorce. most people think that means if you get married you have a 50% chance of getting divorced, but it does not mean that. The actual percentage of people who get divorced is like 12%. It is the people who get divorded 17 times, that make that statistic seems to dramatic and most divorces are people who are on a long path of countless divorces, and the people who report on such things, lie to you when they quote that statistic to you....
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Bingo.

This, THIS, is why I say over and over that How to Lie With Statistics should be required reading and why I - and others - constantly repeat that one should not base one's choice of carry gun based on statistics.


Double Naught Spy said:
An armed society being a polite society is based on a fictional book about a dystopian society that is polite, but also VERY VIOLENT. Everybody always leaves out the rest of that quote that basically says a person must be ready to defend their lives for the slightest transgressions...
Click to expand...

That's a good illustration of how people do violence to literature by ripping narrow quotes
out or their context and applying them to unrelated situations.
Kinda like how misogynists constantly quote the one little bit Paul wrote about wives obeying their husbands but always leave out the rest of the whole long paragraph about how husbands are supposed to treat their wives like queens.

Not wishing to get into religion; that's just a prime example.
 
film495 said:
it is like the statistic - 50% of all marriages end in divorce. most people think that means if you get married you have a 50% chance of getting divorced, but it does not mean that. The actual percentage of people who get divorced is like 12%. It is the people who get divorded 17 times, that make that statistic seems to dramatic and most divorces are people who are on a long path of countless divorces, and the people who report on such things, lie to you when they quote that statistic to you -
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bdickens said:
Bingo.

This, THIS, is why I say over and over that How to Lie With Statistics should be required reading and why I - and others - constantly repeat that one should not base one's choice of carry gun based on statistics.
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The statement "50% of all marriages end in divorce" is not a lie, nor is it skewed. Just because as film495 states, folks misunderstand on misinterpret it, doesn't make it a lie, nor does it diminish it's validity, and it's not as confusing or as open to interpretation as saying we have a 50% chance of rain today. Just like our 2nd Amendment, misinterpretation does not make it invalid. Like the RKBA, maybe folks sometimes interpret it they way they want, so it fit's their mindset or their argument. The linked article in the OP gives us no statistics, real or implied, just their synopsis of what they believe those statistics, known only to them, tell. Without those statistics or their source, it's kinda hard to claim they are lies or are skewed. As far as choice of carry based on statistics, I too question that decision. While choosing to carry or not, based on risk data for your area maybe, but choice of carry gun. not so much.
 
JTHunter said:
While that violence may not have decreased, does not most of it happen in major metropolitan areas that usually deny CC within their borders?
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NOPE!

You can find several of these lists and they vary slightly, usually in the order of ranking, but the trend for all of them is the same. Here is a list of the 25 most violent cities in the US. I have carried in several of them where CC permit was allowed. In the top 10, only Baltimore and Stockton are in states where CC is difficult or impossible to obtain...but look at all the places that are in states that allow open and/or concealed carry.
https://www.mapquest.com/travel/25-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-us-in-2020/#:~:text=25 Most Dangerous Cities In The US In,... 9 Milwaukee, Wisconsin. ... More items...

I have legally carried in Detroit, Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Nashville, and Tulsa. None of those have city laws that disallow concealed carry as you suggest. Nor do the largest metropolitan areas of my state such as Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Fort Worth, or El Paso...not even Austin, which is very liberal.

You have places like New York and Chicago where it is very difficult to obtain permission that didn't even make the list.
 
Double Naught Spy said:
NOPE!

You can find several of these lists and they vary slightly, usually in the order of ranking, but the trend for all of them is the same. Here is a list of the 25 most violent cities in the US. I have carried in several of them where CC permit was allowed. In the top 10, only Baltimore and Stockton are in states where CC is difficult or impossible to obtain...but look at all the places that are in states that allow open and/or concealed carry.
https://www.mapquest.com/travel/25-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-us-in-2020/#:~:text=25 Most Dangerous Cities In The US In,... 9 Milwaukee, Wisconsin. ... More items...
Click to expand...

I find it very strange that Philly, PA and Camden, NJ did not make that top 25 list.
 
buck460XVR said:
The statement "50% of all marriages end in divorce" is not a lie, nor is it skewed. Just because as film495 states, folks misunderstand on misinterpret it, doesn't make it a lie, nor does it diminish it's validity, and it's not as confusing or as open to interpretation as saying we have a 50% chance of rain today. Just like our 2nd Amendment, misinterpretation does not make it invalid. Like the RKBA, maybe folks sometimes interpret it they way they want, so it fit's their mindset or their argument. The linked article in the OP gives us no statistics, real or implied, just their synopsis of what they believe those statistics, known only to them, tell. Without those statistics or their source, it's kinda hard to claim they are lies or are skewed. As far as choice of carry based on statistics, I too question that decision. While choosing to carry or not, based on risk data for your area maybe, but choice of carry gun. not so much.
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12% of people who get married get divorced. People who carry are far less likely to be victims. Not sure what else to say, but that is reality.
 
Double Naught Spy said:
NOPE!

You can find several of these lists and they vary slightly, usually in the order of ranking, but the trend for all of them is the same. Here is a list of the 25 most violent cities in the US. I have carried in several of them where CC permit was allowed. In the top 10, only Baltimore and Stockton are in states where CC is difficult or impossible to obtain...but look at all the places that are in states that allow open and/or concealed carry.
https://www.mapquest.com/travel/25-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-us-in-2020/#:~:text=25 Most Dangerous Cities In The US In,... 9 Milwaukee, Wisconsin. ... More items...

I have legally carried in Detroit, Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Nashville, and Tulsa. None of those have city laws that disallow concealed carry as you suggest. Nor do the largest metropolitan areas of my state such as Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Fort Worth, or El Paso...not even Austin, which is very liberal.

You have places like New York and Chicago where it is very difficult to obtain permission that didn't even make the list.
Click to expand...

Also, most shootings are criminals shooting other criminals, cases in which legal CCW is not a factor.
 
Here is the one clearly obvious fact. If the bad guy has a gun and you don't your odds approach 0%, if the bad guy has a gun and so do you your odds approach 50%.

Real Freedom would mean you get to choose which group you want to be in without Government interference.
 
Conclusions
This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime.

I find this conclusion interesting, especially when putting it beside John Lott's well-documented observations using actual crime statistics comparing concealed carry states with nearby no-carry states. His side-by-side analysis said that armed robberies and deadly force assaults and rapes went down when concealed carry laws went into effect. He also documented that non-confrontational burglaries (no one home) went up in those carry-allowed states.
As already pointed out above, it is easy to lie with statistics, and reconciling these apparently conflicting conclusions will require more deep analysis of the report than i wish to invest.

Craig
 
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