Status Quo of Firearms

[denton]

In 10 years, there will be incremental changes in ergonomics and a few technological changes.

One technological change that may make things different is a military service cartridge and rifle that does not use a brass case. The military has good reasons to want to get rid of brass: cost and weight. Someone will figure out how to fill that need.

On the legal front, I expect many regulations to be rolled back. I think SCOTUS has not taken a major 2A case for a long time because it takes 4 Justices to grant certiorari, and given the present makeup of the court, the 4 who want to set things right can't be sure of a 5th vote, so they hold back. With ACB on the job, I expect that to change. The old AWB was clearly unconstitutional under present-day Heller. Magazines are functioning parts of firearms, not mere accessories, and as such are entitled to the same protections as firearms. In order for magazine capacity laws to meet constitutional muster, the state has the obligation of showing that something just awful happens when you add capacity for that 11th cartridge. I think that is a tall hill to climb. I'm optimistic about our legal future.

The present day riots and looting have fueled a sea change in attitudes about gun ownership. People want to protect their families and businesses, and if the police cannot be depended on, they will provide their own security. And that is very likely to become messy in a hurry.

It can easily take decades for the legal landscape to adapt after rulings like Heller and McDonald. I think things are progressing about as well as we could expect.

 

[spraay]

Musing over something, and a question occurred to me. Irrelevant of what party goes into office this year; a decade from now, do you think the broad iconic platforms of the firearm world to still be available, or even as popular, depending on gun law ?

I bought my first AR platform rifle in the 90s. It was a product of the then current AWB, with no bayonet lug or flash suppressor. The AWB eventually sunset and off my rifle went to have the muzzle threaded and a flash suppressor installed. I've never looked back.

In the intervening years since then, my gun collection has grown steadily, including various semi-auto rifles and pistols with whatever the current capacity magazine was at the time. Everyone pontificated that such things would be banned eventually and yet more than twenty years later, arms-makers sell millions of the vilified black rifles and many millions more full-capacity magazines.

And now, in 2020, there seems to be a greater variety of firearms than ever before. My tastes have changed and the market fills every demand (seems to be how capitalism works). The trend has been towards more choice and variety, not less. I see that continuing.

 

[WestKentucky]

What I get from this thread is that ‘Molon Labe’ and ‘from my cold, dead hands’ were nothing more than catchy slogans vs. a commitment to draw a line in the sand regardless of the consequences.

I remember when that was a big deal. We jokingly referred to the guys with those and the spartan helmet bumper stickers as moron labels. Anybody want to guess what vehicle in the parking lot has a small Arsenal in it... yeah they are 99% of the time picking the jacked up truck with the molon labe and various other gun related stickers on the window, meanwhile my Honda Accord with car seat and diaper bag has the Arsenal in the trunk. Inconspicuous is the name of the game folks.

 

[ozarkhillbilly]

Depending on who wins the election I think there is a far greater chance that we see the country split into two to four different countries. It is unfortunate but our differences are growing to the point that we can no longer say we are all Americans and many do not want to claim that.

 

[Mr. Mosin]

Depending on who wins the election I think there is a far greater chance that we see the country split into two to four different countries. It is unfortunate but our differences are growing to the point that we can no longer say we are all Americans and many do not want to claim that.

Only issue with *that* idea is... will it be peaceful, who will step in to fill our power vacuum, and who will attempt to wipe us off the map immediately after the Civil War Mk. II ?

 

[AlexanderA]

Odd that you think we have lax gun laws when we are guaranteed the right to keep and bear arms by the 2nd amendment. Any and all gun laws in the US are draconian and unconstitutional (IMO) not lax.

Looking at it from a worldwide perspective. No other country that I know of has a constitutionally-protected "right to keep and bear arms." Yes, U.S. gun laws are "lax" compared to the rest pf the world. Even the strictest U.S. states (California? New Jersey?) don't compare in strictness to places like the U.K.

 

[WestKentucky]

Looking at it from a worldwide perspective. No other country that I know of has a constitutionally-protected "right to keep and bear arms." Yes, U.S. gun laws are "lax" compared to the rest pf the world. Even the strictest U.S. states (California? New Jersey?) don't compare in strictness to places like the U.K.

Switzerland is the closest I can think of. Per my understanding, the guys serve a mandatory stint in the armed forces and are issued a weapon which is kept in their home until such time as they are considered too old to be militarily capable. That means every home with a male in it between teenage years and retirement age has a gun in it. I like that. Now if I can talk Uncle Sam into issuing new an m4 for a few years I could report back how I feel that it makes the country less apt to be overran by communist hordes, and no I don’t mean the ones being voted into office in blue states... but I guess that also applies.

 

[Jim Watson]

I believe Switzerland is moving in the direction of Common Europe and is not as liberal on guns as before and as we talk about on the gun boards.

 

[Mk VII]

Yes, Swiss voters were offered a choice between continued access to the Schengen Area, and more gun restrictions. They chose restrictions.

 

[Mk VII]

British gun owners went back to muzzle loading revolvers, initially, altho' their popularity fell away as they came to appreciate their limitations. Pistol-caliber lever actions became the pistol/revolver substitute, and 10/22s.
The AR platform is still used, in manually operated form.

 

[Jim Watson]

Is punt gunning still legal in England? It was right up into the late 20th century but I can't find a recent report.

 

[Mk VII]

Not sure, must be vanishingly small numbers of people who still did it, it was mostly harvesting for the London markets.

 

[Old Dog]

maybe a bunch, maybe none - demand may be even higher, nobody can really predict the future. just saying, I think support for any type of gun control legistlation will be low when a very large portion of the population is arming itself out of fear for their lives. which is now.

This is the very type of hubris that those on the RKBA side has displayed for years. We absolutely cannot depend on what everyone else supports or does not support.

The fact is, the nanny state mentality is alive, well and growing. Election results throughout the country continue to demonstrate that (1) not enough folks on our side seem to be voting, or we're actually way more of a minority that we want to believe; (2) most voters WANT the government to take care of them and are acceding defense of themselves, home and family to the state.

We are truly not at a point where most citizens accept the responsibility for their own lives, most are ceding total control of their to the government, so long as that comes with a 65" flatscreen, a brandnew car ever five years, a reliable microwave oven and the latest I-Phone or Android.

 

[Hartkopf]

I don't think people see how quick the world is changing.

What would China do? It will be more drastic and unfair than anything we are used to. Change is happening quick and the new world power is controlling more of our country than most people can understand. One example, five years ago did anybody think the NBA would be controlled by China?

Some in the media are saying extreme things that only a communist media would say. Like the ex CEO of Twitter saying after the revolution you capitalist will be the first to be "lined up against the wall and shot." And Keith Olbermann saying "Trump and his supporters need to be removed from society." And some other nimrod saying there needs to be a "ministry of reconciliation" after Trump is removed from office. These are Chinese statements.

Do we know who is controlling the people controlling the mobs crushing free speech. (the way china crushes free speech)

They have excellent control of virus distribution too.

If China infiltrates our big tech, we are in trouble. Of course big tech just started doing some extreme censoring to help one presidential candidate over another. Maybe China is already in our big tech? We know they have already payed off some of our high level crooked politicians so paying off tech workers is small beans.

I could go on with examples but my point is, greed on our side and a 100 year plan on Chinas side will result in us living like China. Their rules are already starting to apply to the American people so look to what gun laws China has in place. That's what will be attempted here, probably with success.

 

[huntsman]

I’m in the already infiltrated camp.

 

[army_eod]

I don't think people see how quick the world is changing.

What would China do? It will be more drastic and unfair than anything we are used to. Change is happening quick and the new world power is controlling more of our country than most people can understand. One example, five years ago did anybody think the NBA would be controlled by China?

Some in the media are saying extreme things that only a communist media would say. Like the ex CEO of Twitter saying after the revolution you capitalist will be the first to be "lined up against the wall and shot." And Keith Olbermann saying "Trump and his supporters need to be removed from society." And some other nimrod saying there needs to be a "ministry of reconciliation" after Trump is removed from office. These are Chinese statements.

Do we know who is controlling the people controlling the mobs crushing free speech. (the way china crushes free speech)

They have excellent control of virus distribution too.

If China infiltrates our big tech, we are in trouble. Of course big tech just started doing some extreme censoring to help one presidential candidate over another. Maybe China is already in our big tech? We know they have already payed off some of our high level crooked politicians so paying off tech workers is small beans.

I could go on with examples but my point is, greed on our side and a 100 year plan on Chinas side will result in us living like China. Their rules are already starting to apply to the American people so look to what gun laws China has in place. That's what will be attempted here, probably with success.

This has already happened. Hence why the country is in such bad shape. Red China basically owns us.

 

[Ivy Mike]

When you look at civilian shootings, you often find the number of rounds fired is not very high. While I don't particularly like the idea of artificially limited capacity, I don't think I'd be undergunned with 10rd magazines.
So, to my mind, this is not a hill to die upon. I simply don't care that much. 10rds of 9mm or 45 or whatever is plenty and extra magazines are easy to carry with you.

 

[Mr. Mosin]

When you look at civilian shootings, you often find the number of rounds fired is not very high. While I don't particularly like the idea of artificially limited capacity, I don't think I'd be undergunned with 10rd magazines.
So, to my mind, this is not a hill to die upon. I simply don't care that much. 10rds of 9mm or 45 or whatever is plenty and extra magazines are easy to carry with you.

I'm a Christian. I've got better things to worry about than whether or not the Beretta 92 I want can hold 10 rounds or 15. My priorities lay elsewhere.

 

[Hartkopf]

This has already happened. Hence why the country is in such bad shape. Red China basically owns us.

I was trying to leave a little bit of hope in my post. I agree it's really bad. Greed on the part of politicians and others who can be bought by the communist will be the downfall of this country. It's a shame that over half of America is too blind or manipulated to see what's happening.

 

[Hartkopf]

When you look at civilian shootings, you often find the number of rounds fired is not very high. While I don't particularly like the idea of artificially limited capacity, I don't think I'd be undergunned with 10rd magazines.
So, to my mind, this is not a hill to die upon. I simply don't care that much. 10rds of 9mm or 45 or whatever is plenty and extra magazines are easy to carry with you.

Bloomberg said you only need three rounds. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile. I prefer to fight for the no limit hill. Fight for every hill because zero rounds is their goal.

 

[Ivy Mike]

Bloomberg said you only need three rounds. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile. I prefer to fight for the no limit hill. Fight for every hill because zero rounds is their goal.

Uh, enjoy your fight I guess.

 

[Hartkopf]

Uh, enjoy your fight I guess.

There is nothing enjoyable about it but I'll do what I can.

 

[23tony]

What I will add, however, is that, over the long run-the really long run-they won't quit; they will never quit. They won't stop until they succeed. And they were doing rather well until this year. So I don't believe my grandchildren (I don't have any yet) will be owning semi automatic guns of any type or of any magazine capacity.

The next time there is an authoritarian majority in the House , Senate and White House, Hell yes, they're going to take your AR15.

Orwell's vision of the future...

I think it's likely to come to pass in some form, but I also think things tend to be cyclical. The only question is, how long is the next cycle?

 

[kidneyboy]

Orwell's vision of the future...

I think it's likely to come to pass in some form, but I also think things tend to be cyclical. The only question is, how long is the next cycle?

About 1 generation - 80 or so years. We are coming to an end of a cycle now. This cycle started around Woodrow Wilson and started to come to an end in the Clinton, Bush, Obama years. We now have to spend a decade or 3 cleaning up that mess just so we can get back to the center. If you go back 2 generations from right now we had the Civil war going on.
Europe went through a similar 80 or so year cycle that started just before Otto Von Bismark and ended with Hitler. Do the math and you will see Europe is coming to the end of the next cycle. History endlessly repeats.

 

[Fiv3r]

Mini-rant incoming. Just skip to the ****** below to bypass my bullhockey

I don't think the issue can be so cut and dry "Liberals take my guns! BAD!" "Everything the Right does is OK, because...guns!"
There are SO many winding threads and reasons of why people lean and support and tolerate what they do when it comes to gun laws. At the risk of this turning into a Codger vs Whippersnapper post, the simple fact of the matter is that many gunowners that check off the traditional and rational boxes ie likes to shoot for fun, likes to shoot safely, believes in protecting his/her family, might hunt/might not but understands the importance of teaching conservation and gun safety to all kids who may stumble across a gun have left the next generation behind.

Blaming millennials for the downturn in gun culture is easy...just get in line. Everything is supposedly their fault. "It's the damn vidya games those kids play!" I'm a proto-millennial/first of my name/born in 1981. I will be 40 years old at the beginning of 2021. The youngest of my generation is in the backhalf of their 20s and is trying to be a working professional and start a family. People my age in their upper 30s MIGHT have had a hunting safety class like I did back in Jr High, but even growing up in rural Indiana I don't remember any kindly older gun owners taking any kids under their wings to show them how to shoot. My gun education was vicariously through Rambo, Chuck Norris, and every other go-go rah-rah late cold war 1980s action movie. There weren't any outreach programs or even kindly neighbors that would nurture that into a real love of the hobby nor instill a protectionist attitude toward the importance of firearms and history. I didn't choose to get into firearms until my late 20's when my late father in law decided that he needed to find a gun for my mother in law to use to protect herself while traveling after he passed and had me start doing some research. Furthermore, the "kids" in their 20s and 30s (as well as this 39 year old) who like to play military shooters get it honest. I was a junior in college when 9/11 happened. I got to watch people 4 or 5 years younger than me watch the towers fall, graduate highschool, and choose to enlist in the fight. However, there is a whole generation under me that watched us go to war with the same weapons and watch our soldiers do their brave duty on the news while they were in elementary school. Someone growing up in the 1950s may want a 1873 Colt because of the westerns he/she watched and playing cowboys in the back yard with a stick. A kid growing up in the 2000s got his fix on an Xbox. Same thing, different medium. It doesn't mean much, really. However, I do like to make sure that the fact Millennials have been the fighting backbone for the longest armed engagement in our country's history doesn't get glossed over.

My longwinded point is that we are stewards of those who come after us. It is our job to teach and show, and not just our own kids. Be kind, be accepting, invite someone into the fold. Be patient. You might start out with a young person who is all about the high-speed, low-drag poser life they ape from a Call of Duty video game and turn them into a real ally of responsible gun ownership that we would actually WANT representing us to the average public. Optics is half the battle, and we need to make sure that gunowners are seen as regular folks and not a fringe group. Spurning your kids and grandkids for not being like you is not going to do anything to protect the 2A. You WILL age out. You WILL pass into dust. You can grouch about it at your keyboard or puff up your chest and proclaim that you "would never let that happen!" when it comes to the passage of gun laws you don't agree with. But what WILL you do? Dig a bunker? Guerilla tactics? The people have spoken. The vote passes. What you can do is change the dialog. Be more inclusive instead of making it us/them when it comes to what you like vs what others are into, or even politically. We are all Americans here. I think we all love our country. We all want it to be better for kids and their kids and so on. However, it is important to understand that many folks will vote in a different direction that what will be good for gun owners because their are more pressing things happening to them RIGHT NOW. Most voters are not one issue voters or at the very least vote to remove pain of what is bothering them in the present. If things start to drastically lean left or right, IMHO, it's because power was squandered when it was had. It's a lesson all politicians refuse to learn as both sides have been taking turns crapping the bed over the last 25 years. If we don't want to have to worry about 5 round limits and massive permits/taxes to purchase guns and ammo, then I think it is important to realize that you can't keep squeezing greater margins out of a shrinking group. We need to grow the pie. That will require dialog and empathy on both sides of the discussion unless everyone is just content to harumph in this echo chamber.

******

Anyway, as far as what do I see in the future:

Regardless of how the election goes, I don't see a massive shift when it comes to guns. There isn't ever going to be enough political will to move in massive jolts. If Sandy Hook under a democratic president didn't cause knee-jerk outright banning, then I can't see anything pushing extreme gun reform hard. Even if the House, Senate, and Whitehouse are blue, they will need to deliver on the more immediate promises they make regarding jobs and health care before musling in too much that would be unpopular with the majority of the country (remember, not everyone who votes blue does it over gun laws). I would say an outright ban on "high capacity" magazines may be in the cards if they can get it through. However, this is where i think negotiation could come into play. Maybe 7 or 10 rounders are what comes with the gun. Maybe someone purchasing a 17 or 30 round magazine would have to purchase it separately and have it called in like a firearms purchase. No extra tax, but just one more step. That seems "reasonable". You know what else sounds reasonable? Being able to do the same thing with a sound suppressor to protect my hearing while I shoot. So one passes a restriction, the other counters with a way to make it less painless, and further presses the deal by at least getting something that should never have required a stamp to begin with to be more easily obtainable. It is compromise? Yes. Will it cause bile to rise in some throats? no doubt. Is it better to get something rather than just let our magazines get restricted for 2 decades? I would argue so.

If an outright restriction is made on higher capacity magazines and maybe even "weapons of war" like Ars, I think as others have mentioned the move to a lever gun that can both be a hunting tool AND a viable form of defense makes sense. The 30-30 has been lovingly referred to as the Hillbilly AK for good reason. I could see revolvers coming back into vogue. However, I see quality single stacks really surging. 1911s for those wanting 7 rounds of heavy hitting power out of a full size gun, or maybe more belt friendly guns like the Shield. Perhaps a bit of technology will juice up something like the .40 S&W to where it would flirt with 10mm power levels without splitting the gun. If I could only take 7 rounds with me, maybe a hard hitting 180 gr slug makes more sense?

Time will tell, I suppose.