The Divided States of America (Based on G&A Rankings)

[baz]

Here's a little different take on the G&A rankings of gun laws by states that were under discussion recently. Many noted how that the ranking was flawed because it assigned different ranks to states with the same scores. So what I did was create three different groups and build a color coded map of the US based on the groups:


The "free" states (red) are those which generally respect the 2nd Amendment and the RKBA; they have G&A scores of 39 or better. The "slave" states (blue) are those which notably restrict gun rights, and have G&A scores below 23. The "border" states (grey) are those in between (G&A scores of 34 and 35), which seem to want to have it both ways. (I've assigned Colorado to the blue/slave state category based on the recent legislation passed there.)

We truly are a nation divided over this. But one has to wonder why it is even close in the US Senate. It would appear that a lot of red/free states have Democratic Senators, more than just the ones that are known to be up for reelection in 2014. (Harry Reid, for one.) If you are in one of these states, even if your Democratic Senator is not up for reelection in 2014, please keep the pressure on to defeat the even diluted bill that Reid is trying to get through the Senate.

 

[beatledog7]

Interesting.

I built the attached table after reading that article. Note the trend: states that ranked high in the G&A rankings typically voted Republican in the 2012 presidential election and have Republican legislatures.

 

[HorseSoldier]

We truly are a nation divided over this. But one has to wonder why it is even close in the US Senate.

Part of the problem is of course that using states as the unit of measurement is flawed, even if the unit of analysis is state gun laws.

Colorado is, for instance, a red state with a blue urban ulcer in the middle that swings a lot of political weight. Illinois isn't much different, big chunks of New York are very rural pro gun places, etc. So even in the senate where you don't have the same sort of silliness with gerrymandered districts and such that you see in the House, it's still more complex than just the map shows.

 

[JShirley]

Make this thread about anything other than firearms, and it will be closed.

 

[Outlaw Man]

I find it interesting that the majority of and some of the biggest gun manufacturers are in the blue states, with a few notable exceptions.

I wonder how much of a correlation there is between this chart and percentage of gun owners. Like Horse Soldier said, there are a lot of gun owners in many of those blue states, but there are a lot of non-gun owners, too.

 

[baz]

Part of the problem is of course that using states as the unit of measurement is flawed, even if the unit of analysis is state gun laws.

I think it is mostly a rural/urban divide. But the laws are made at the state level, so the "blue" states tend to be those where urban districts dominate or control the state house. Illinois is probably the best example of that. And that is more or less what happened in Colorado.

So one lesson to draw is how do we get more urban voters vested in the 2nd Amendment and RKBA? I think the answer is obvious. We need to make this a more "libertarian" issue, and make it about "self-defense." I think the gun groups -- NRA, GOA, etc. -- need to create a presence on college campuses. Get behind "campus carry" causes, things like that. The NRA has done well, I think, in emphasizing the self-defense aspect to RKBA, downplaying the more traditional "sporting arms" focus of gun ownership. The latter underpins the rural support for the 2nd Amendment, but as urban interests grow, that becomes less significant, and if it is not replaced by a focus on the right of self-defense, then more states will go the way of Colorado.

Which ones? Well, the "grey" states on the map are candidates. And some states which are "blue" politically, but "red" on this map, could fall quickly too. It wouldn't take too many to change the character of the debate in Congress. We're stemming the tide against anti-RKBA sentiment in Congress right now, but that's because there are still enough states with Democratic senators but a strong tradition of gun ownership and support for RKBA. Should those states fall to the anti-RKBA tide, then those senators would no longer feel pressure to not support gun control measures.

 

[baz]

I wonder how much of a correlation there is between this chart and percentage of gun owners.

Compare it with this:


I see a correlation, though it isn't exact. States like CA, IL, and NY are on the low end of the gun ownership scale. But is that a cause or an effect of stricter gun control laws? But I can see some additional info provided by looking at this map. Take the West Coast, for example. CA, OR, and WA are all "blue" politically. But in the G&A based map, CA is blue, OR is red, and WA is grey. Why the difference between OR and WA? Well, gun ownership might be a factor. It appears to be higher in OR than in WA. I suspect that on the rural/urban divide, that in OR rural interests have stronger representation in the state house than in WA. But that is just a guess.

A notable feature of this map: note how it draws attention to the high homicide rates in states with low gun ownership, such as CA and IL. Or, as we might say to those states, "how's that gun control working out for you?" But then there are states like LA and MS. There I think you'd find that while gun ownership is high because of a large rural population, homicide rates are high because of other demographic factors which we're not allowed to discuss. But staying on topic, we can say that homicide by firearms is not correlated with gun ownership per se.

 

[baz]

Make this thread about anything other than firearms, and it will be closed.

As the OP, I'm asking readers not to hijack the thread in a direction that would cause it to be closed.

 

[Outlaw Man]

Compare it with this:

Thanks! I never thought I'd say this, but I'm happy to see I live in a very dark blue state.

 

[baz]

And I'm excited, for once, that my state -- Arkansas -- is ahead of Texas in something gun related. In fact, Arkansas looks to have the highest per capita ownership throughout the South and Southwest. (Alabama looks almost as dark as Arkansas, though.)

 

[Cosmoline]

I fear for Oregon as well, though it's still on our side overall. If the antis in Colorado remain in power after next year's election, we could well see Oregon joining Washington, Minnesota and a few others in adopting cap limits and an AWB. There is still a remnant of the old libertarian core, but it's a shadow of what it used to be. The Portland metro area has been taken over by immigrants from California and back east. I recognize it less and less every year I go down there.

 

[Kiln]

Make this thread about anything other than firearms, and it will be closed.

Well that pretty much rules out anybody stating the obvious about which states are free and which states aren't.

 

[JShirley]

Hey, this is a firearms board- or is that too obvious?

 

[Kiln]

Hey, this is a firearms board- or is that too obvious?

Right, this is a firearms board. So I suppose it makes sense to ignore the fact that there's always this one group that attacks firearm related liberties.

 

[larryh1108]

I think that the easiest way to look at states view on the 2nd amendment is to see which states have large city populations in relation to total population. Therein lies the real issues. E.g. Il has about 12.8 million people and Chicago metro has 7 million people. New York State has about 19.5 million and NYC metro has about 10 million. See how it works? It's not fair but it is urban versus rural when you get down to it.

 

[JShirley]

Yep. Pretty much all of GA is pro-gun, except for Metro Atlanta~ which unfortunately is half of the state population.

 

[HorseSoldier]

I suspect that on a statistical basis, people who live in densely populated areas are inherently more comfortable with government control measures -- gun related or otherwise -- simply because being stacked in cheek to jowl with millions of other folks and the stresses associated with it. (Which is not to say that everyone who lives in a city loves intrusive government, just that urban life skews feelings on that matter.)

 

[CmdrSlander]

If only land could vote, we'd be winning.

 

[JShirley]

I suspect that...people who live in densely populated areas are inherently more comfortable with government control measures -- gun related or otherwise -- simply because being stacked in cheek to jowl with millions of other folks and the stresses associated with it

I'm going to agree with your idea, but not your reasoning. I think it's probably truer that people in more rural areas are by nature more independent.

 

[USAF_Vet]

Yep. Pretty much all of GA is pro-gun, except for Metro Atlanta~ which unfortunately is half of the state population.

Kinda like Michigan and Detroit, Kentucky and Louisville, Illinois and Chicago, and most states with one major population center.

 

[col_temp]

Adding Seattle Metro to Washington State.

 

[Kiln]

I think a large portion of it is that in rural areas you're generally taught that you need to be self sufficient, especially with your own defense. The unhappy truth of it is that in the countryside, it takes police a long time to get there and people know this.

In the larger cities, people rely more on government agencies to protect them, like police. What the average city dwelling citizen doesn't seem to understand is that the police are not a pre-emptive measure and that they can only come AFTER the crime is over. Sometimes response time is only 4-5 minutes but a lot can happen in that time.

You could lose your life in seconds.

 

[baz]

In the larger cities, people rely more on government agencies to protect them, like police. What the average city dwelling citizen doesn't seem to understand is that the police are not a pre-emptive measure and that they can only come AFTER the crime is over. Sometimes response time is only 4-5 minutes but a lot can happen in that time.

You could lose your life in seconds.

So what can be done to improve awareness among urbans that the 2nd and RKBA is "for them"? I think NRA and other pro gun groups with money to spend on advertising should target these groups with pro gun messages. Don't preach to the choirs. Go after new converts. And college campuses, and cities with colleges, too.