The National Instant Criminal Background Check System

[Ohio Gun Guy]

I did a little work and looked up the NICS numbers from the FBI. I then put them into excel so I could make some graphs and see some trends.

I find this interesting. (My observations (I'll keep it short of a book)

1. NICS checks (Therefore Gun Sales) have increased consistantly every year
2. There appears to be a repeating and definate pattern to gun sales
3. Now, Nearly 1 million NICS Checks are done per month (You guys have been busy)
4. We are at an interesting cross road, the buying spree may be over, as the month to month sales dip negative for the first time in November 2009; however November 2008 was such a record month, it may account for the trend. Therefore, if December was a higher than average December, the spree continues, otherwise it could be over.

Your thoughts? Interesting?

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

The charts are attached, I couldnt get them attached like a picture.

 

[wishin]

Wow! A million checks per month is one huge number. I never woulda thunk it. It would take one big posse a long time to confiscate all our guns, even without any resistance. Thanks.

 

[berettaprofessor]

.....try and remember we could have a million NICS checks/month and it doesn't mean ANY new guns have been purchased....just that the existing ones are changing hands. A more important number might be the number of NEW guns entering the system.

 

[ny32182]

Doesn't the ATF release manufacturing numbers that would provide more insight into how many new guns go into circulation each year, if that is the goal?

One could probably compile those two data points and get a pretty good idea of what percent of the NICS checks were for used guns.

 

[hso]

Good work!

 

[Old Fuff]

The numbers show most of the commerence (new and used guns) in firearms as conducted through FFL dealers. They are not a complete total because some states or cities make background checks through agencies other then NICS.

Also private sales of firearms not made through FFL dealers are not included (which is part of the reason that gun control advocates want to put gun shows and other private sales under FFL's).

But when you consider that these buyers are all old enough to vote, these numbers will not cause any secure feelings among gun control advocates who hold elective officies. They may be in a safe (liberal/left) district, but upsets can, and will likely happen in boderline areas.

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

Old Fluff.... Yeah I realize there are limitations. Many of the varriables may have off setting factors like denyals vs multiple gun purchases. I did not realize that NICS would not include all states. Which states dont report? (If its Texas, these numbers may double! )

Im interested if a few of you want to research some of the manufacturer's and take a stab at figuring out private party sales. It's reasuring to know my fellow Americans are exercizing their rights!

I think it would be truely impressive to figure out the size / scope of our gun habbit in this country. I'm encouraged.

 

[mcdonl]

Be careful, you may become Ohio Data Analyst Guy...

 

[Geneseo1911]

Wow; fascinating numbers. Good work, and thanks for sharing!

It is kind of interesting to see that we generally buy more guns in the spring before shooting season, taper off in the summer, and then binge again at Christmas time.

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

Yeah, I know......

I get curious about things and just have to figure them out. I would love to be a fly on the wall when the anti's discuss these kinds of numbers. 1,000,000 per month......

 

[DoubleTapDrew]

Oregon doesn't use NICS. They go through the Oregon State Police (who charges $10 for the service).
It would be interesting to see numbers for FTF sales as well but there is no way to track those, as well there shouldn't.

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

Interesting thought, looking at the total checks graph.

Is the NICS increase actually the inverse the economy? Is there an increase when the economy slows? I wonder, because the increase started well before the election. Could gun sales be an economic indicator?

2000 through 2005 were steady (With an uptick in 2001, likely due to 9/11).

Then in 2006 the checks increase and contunue upward dramatically.

OR Could it be the AWB sunsetting in 2004?

 

[JKimball]

Wow, that yearly totals graph shows an impressive and steady increase from 2005 to 2009, and is as good of an explanation as I've heard or seen for the increase in ammunition costs. More and more people are getting into shooting.

Looking at the yearly totals, there's a little bump for 2001 likely due to 9/11, but that is eclipsed by a huge surge that doesn't start for another 3 or 4 years. Even though the 2008 election shows a lot of action on the monthly charts, according to the annual charts it is pretty much maintaining the prior trend.

Here's a 10 year chart of the Dow Jones:
http://www.forecast-chart.com/stock-dow-industrial.html

 

[divemedic]

Do you have the underlying numbers, or a link to them? It would be cool to do a statistical analysis of them.

 

[RS14]

Thanks for doing this. Is there a reason 2008 is missing from the monthly data?

It's interesting to see that sales picked up around 2005. It's not just panic over Obama that we're seeing, as he didn't declare his candidacy until 2007. Possibly it coincides with the housing collapse?

 

[Old Fuff]

Old Fluff.... Yeah I realize there are limitations. Many of the varriables may have off setting factors like denyals vs multiple gun purchases. I did not realize that NICS would not include all states. Which states dont report?

I didn’t mean to criticize your excellent work. I know they’re some states, but I’m not sure which ones. I’ll look into it and see what I can find. I doubt that they will have a significant affect on your numbers though. What would, but we probably never will know, is the number of private intrastate transaction that in most states aren’t recorded – except possibly handguns.

Regarding handguns, Michigan might be interesting because they require a police-issued purchase permit be obtained prior to all sales, those made by dealers, at gun shows, and otherwise. The Michigan State Police might have some numbers, but keep in mind that unemployment in parts of the state is close to, or above 50%

 

[Gunsafe]

Thanks for posting this! 1,000,000 checks per month, +/- a typical 3-5% is still a significant number!

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

RS14, the data for 2008 is there, I think I must have deleted the tag when cleaning up the chart. I'll double check & fix it.

Old Fluff....I didnt take it that way! No problems!

 

[ironcode]

No wonder a NICS appeal takes 170 days on average. Make yourself a favor and don't get denied; appealing is a pain in the ass.

 

[KAC1911]

Great job. It seems some of these trends follow a anti gun pres also. If I remember correctly right after Clinton got in everything spiked. Gun dealers told me this was better than any advertising they could do the way sales and prices soared.

 

[unspellable]

Iowa

In Iowa you must have a "Permit to Acquire" in order to buy a handgun from dealer or private individual. That's the down side. The up side is that with such a permit you don't do NICs for either a handgun or long gun when buying from an FFL. So handgun sales and probably about half of long gun sales don't show up in the NICs stats.

 

[leadcounsel]

Interesting. In 2001, prompted no doubt by the terrorist attacks, there were 9 million checks and that trend rose and peaked with 12 million when Obama got elected...

The drop in checks in November means, IMO, the market has reached momentary saturation. Everyone who wanted a gun has gotten his and some people who bought hi and cannot afford are selling privately. There are tons of private sale great deals out there. Why would you go through and FFL?

 

[Ohio Gun Guy]

leadcounsil - Yeah, I think the November numbers has 1 of 2 answers.

Yours OR

The other is that the sales in 2008 were so large that 2009 couldnt match them. They show negative on the month to month growth chart but may still be an increase or on par with the trend for 2009.


We wont know which until December 2009 comes out.

 

[4D5]

Another factor is that these numbers don't include states where a CWP CCW waves the background check.