The Three Fallacies: Waco Rules vs. Romanian Rules.

[Rachen]

I want to post this as an extension to the "What good can a Handgun do against an army?" thread we had here a couple of weeks ago.

Print copies of this and make sure every gun owner and patriot reads it. Many take freedom for granted, but it doesn't take a history professor to realize how painful it is to obtain it, and maintain it.

Resistance is Futile": Waco Rules vs. Romanian Rules

by Mike Vanderboegh



"What country can preserve its liberties if its rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them." --Thomas Jefferson to William Stephens Smith, 1787

"We are the Borg. Lower your shields and surrender your ships. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile." -- Star Trek: First Contact
"Resistance is Futile"

You know, the most dangerous thing about liberals in today's America is that they are always taking policy decisions based upon three fallacies:

a. Woeful ignorance of the subject at hand,

b. Extrapolation of their own cowardice onto their opponents, i.e. expecting their opponents to react the way they do, and

c. Willful refusal to grasp that the Law of Unintended Consequences applies both to their world view and to the schemes that they use to enforce that world view upon the rest of us.

They are, in a phrase, without a clue. This is not so dangerous when they are out of power. However, as they now control both houses of Congress and have a better than even chance of controlling the White House in 2009, this has the potential to get a lot of people killed by 2010. An illustrative case in point is David Prather's recent column in the Huntsville (AL) Times, entitled "In a Shoot-out, the Feds Always Win.". Mr. Prather, it seems, has second-guessed the Founders of our tattered Republic and come up with his own idea of the futility of the armed citizenry to secure their own liberty. He writes with scorn of the belief that the Second Amendment means exactly and precisely what it says:


"This argument says that keeping firearms is necessary to ensure that the public can resist government oppression should such arise. In other words, unless you can shoot back at the feds, you can't be free. That's a nice, John Wayne-type view of the world. But it's wrong. It's not just debatably wrong. It's factually wrong. And the reason it is wrong is this: The government has and will always have more firepower than you, you and your neighbors, you and your like-minded friends or you and anybody you can conscript to your way of thinking. You simply can't arm yourself adequately against a government that is rotten and needs to be overturned. Your best defense is the ballot box, not a pillbox.. . . . You can't beat 'em. You'd be foolish to try. So let's take that argument off the table. I don't presume to say that by doing so we will be able to reach a consensus or a compromise or whatever about how we should or shouldn't control firearms in modern society. I'm just saying that shooting it out with the government is like the exhibition team versus the Harlem Globetrotters as far as who is going to win. Only a lot more bloody." -- David Prather, "In a shoot-out, the feds always win", Huntsville Times, May 2, 2007
(http://www.al.com/opinion/huntsvilletimes/dprather.ssf?/base/opinion/1178097466131870.xml&coll=1)

I am reminded here of the famous Dorothy Parker line, "You can lead a horticulture, but you can't make her think." Now Mr. Prather, who has risen to the lofty position in life of Associate Editorial Page Editor of the Huntsville Times asserts that we gunnies inhabit a "John Wayne-type view of the world (that's). . .factually wrong." As the quote from the principal Founder above clearly shows, it is in fact a "Thomas Jefferson-type" view of the world. Mr. Prather believes the ballot box is a better defense against tyranny than the cartridge box. Oddly enough I agree, as long as the tyrants are willing to play by the election laws. But what happens when they don't? In his novel Starship Troopers, Robert Heinlein offered an answer:


"Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor, and the contrary opinion is wishful thinking at its worst. Nations and peoples who forget this basic truth have always paid for it with their lives and freedoms."
Indeed, the Founders were only able to secure their right to the ballot box by taking up their cartridge boxes and muskets and standing against the army of the most powerful empire in the world at the time and fighting it to a standstill. What has fundamentally changed about the universe since then? Communication is faster, weapons are more powerful, but as we see in Iraq, a determined armed minority can be impossibly overmatched and still cause a good deal of trouble.

"Waco Rules"

Now I have spent a lot of time since the early days of the Clinton Administration considering the Founders' concepts of the deterrence of tyranny by the armed citizenry from the perspectives of philosophy, history, strategy and tactics. The catalyst for all this reflection was, of course, the twin menaces of the increasing Clintonista proscriptions of firearms rights (Brady and the Assault Weapons Ban) and the massacre of the Branch Davidians at Waco. The subsequent failure of the Republican congress and the courts to do anything substantive about either threat-- legislative tyranny or rogue bureaucracy-- led many of us to conclude that we had now entered a time when we could only count on ourselves to maintain our liberties.

 

[Rachen]

And here is Part II:

The Law of Unintended Consequences decreed that there would be two unexpected results of this Clintonista constitutional misbehavior. The first was the importation and sale within a few months of several millions of semi-auto rifles (principally SKS and AK-variants) into the U.S. This was in anticipation of, and defiance of, the so-called "Assault Weapons Ban." Indeed, this was more rifles of these types than had been sold in the previous TWENTY YEARS. And it was in a political climate where it was fully expected that the next law would call for the confiscation of such weapons. Why, then, did this massive arming take place? Were we buying these rifles merely to turn them over later? When the Clintonistas realized that we were not buying these rifles to turn them in, but to turn ON THEM if they became even more threatening to our liberties, it gave them considerable pause. I am told the analysts in the bowels of the J. Edgar Hoover building were particularly impressed.

The second unexpected result of Clintonista misbehavior, although of lesser import than the millions of rifles, was the rise of the constitutional militia movement. As London Telegraph senior reporter Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote:


"The Clinton era . . spawned an armed militia movement involving tens of thousands of people. The last time anything like this occurred was in the 1850's with the emergence of the southern gun clubs. It is easy to dismiss the militia as right-wing nuts: it is much harder to read the complex sociology of civic revolt. . . No official has ever lost a day's pay for precipitating the incineration of 80 people, most of them women and children, in the worst abuse of power since Wounded Knee a century ago. Instead of shame and accountability, the Clinton administration accused the victims of setting fire to themselves and their children, a posthumous smear that does not bear serious scrutiny. It then compounded the injustice by pushing for a malicious prosecution of the survivors. Nothing does more to sap the life of a democracy than the abuse of power." Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Secret Life of Bill Clinton

You see, what impressed us gunnies the most was the fact that under what we came to know as "Waco Rules", Catch 22 was in full swing. It was as if the Clintonistas were shouting, "We can do anything you can't stop us from doing." The constitutional militia movement, despised by the administration, caricatured by the media (and professional liars for money like Morris Dees of the Southern "Poverty" Law Center), and unjustly vilified after the Oklahoma City bombing, began to explore the question of just what could be done to stop such unconstitutional conduct on the part of the government. We realized that another way to express Catch 22 is to say, "You can do only what we let you get away with."

I think the FBI realized our power before we really understood it's full implications. For one thing, we had them surrounded. At its zenith, the militia movement had perhaps as many as 300,000 active participants, but we were backed up, you see, by the undeniable fact of those millions of rifles. Of the 85 million gun owners at the time, how many would join the militias if another Waco happened? That was the question. Both sides eventually came to the realization that in any case, it was enough. As Clausewitz observed, "In military affairs, quantity has a quality all its own."

And the first thing we noticed was that the FBI became very much more solicitous of our sensibilities and sought at every turn to avoid a flashpoint. During each little potential Waco-- the Republic of Texas, the Montana Freemen, etc-- the FBI would seek out local militia leaders and ask their advice, seeking their opinions with what sounded like real concern.

The best answer that I recall to one of these FBI queries came from Bob Wright, commander of the 1st Brigade, New Mexico Militia. When asked if he and his friends would actually go to the scene of a future Waco in another state to assist the potential victims, Bob replied, "Why would I want to do that? There's plenty of you federal SOBs around here." This was a perspective the Fibbie had not considered before, and it showed on his face.

So we got through the rest of the Clinton Administration by waging a low-intensity cold war, the history of which has yet to (and may never) be written. The principal point was this: there were no more Wacos. Although they never renounced Waco Rules, they did not again implement them.

The Three Fallacies

Which brings us to today and our armchair theorist of contemporary domestic military operations, David Prather. Let us examine his thesis: "the feds always win" by referring to the three fallacies listed above. First, let us test his woeful ignorance of the subject at hand. In fact, you CAN beat the feds in a shoot-out as was demonstrated by the Branch Davidians in the initial raid of 28 February. Four ATF agents died in this monstrous misuse of government power and far more would have, but for the fact that the Davidians, having repelled the ATF raiders from entering their home, allowed them to leave after the men in black exhausted their ammunition. In effect, the ATF asked the Davidians if they could go home and reload their guns and the Davidians, being nice guys, agreed.

Had Vo Nyugen Giap been running what the Feds later claimed was an "ambush", none of the ATFs would have left that property alive. Indeed, had the Davidians understood the full implications of Waco Rules as they were being worked out for the first time, they would have put up a far tougher fight on both 28 February and 19 April and likely could have stopped the armored vehicles in their tracks.

So, when Prather says "the feds always win", he's probably thinking of Waco, but then so are we. In his ignorance, he does not realize that others observed Waco and the exercise of Waco Rules with a keener military eye, took notes, studied and learned.

Secondly, Prather is extrapolating onto others his own cowardice and unfamiliarity with weapons. He knows HE could not resist a predatory police raid, so he assumes that others could not as well. Should there come another dark time when the feds think they can resort to Waco Rules once more, both they and Prather will discover that such assumptions are deadly mistakes.

Thirdly, The Law of Unintended Consequences is still issuing forth unplanned dividends from the Clinton misbehavior of the 90s. Remember those millions of rifles? They didn't go anywhere. They haven't disappeared.

Romanian Rules

So we have the rifles and we have one other thing: Romanian Rules.

On 16 December 1989, riots in the Romanian city of Timisoara ignited a nationwide revolt which spread to the capital Bucharest. Parts of the army joined the revolutionaries, and on 25 December, after 45 years of communist tyranny, dictator Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elene received a Christmas present from the Romanian people when they were summarily executed. Said one Romanian radio announcer, "The anti-Christ died. Oh, what wonderful news."

Ceausescu had ruled the Romanians with an iron hand, using his dreaded secret police to pick his opponents off one by one for imprisonment or execution-- until the day came when the people learned their lesson and met the secret police and the army face to face. Thousands were killed in the fighting, many because they lacked the weapons to do the job. But we're Americans. We observed the Romanian Rules and learned. We realized too that we're much better armed than the poor Romanians.

So what makes Prather think that Americans who may wish to resist our own government if it spins out of control again, will sit idly in their little houses allowing themselves to picked off one by one? In his ignorance and arrogance, Prather has committed the ultimate sin of military planners throughout the centuries: he is presuming that the straw-man opponent he has created in his own mind will sit still and wait to be beaten on his (or Hillary Clinton's) own terms. He is presuming that his opponent won't react, won't be agile, and won't be thinking.

Prather makes much of modern day weaponry that only the government may possess. But you know, artillery and nuclear bombs are of limited utility to a government when the battlefield is its own cities, towns, transportation hubs and commercial centers. Then it becomes like Iraq, only far worse. It becomes a rat hunt where the rats outnumber you, and often, at the point of decision, beat you in the one thing that is most fundamental in an up-close infantry fight: rapid and deadly accurate rifle fire. Shouting Borg-like that "resistance is futile" may scare the faint-hearted, the weak-minded and certain children under the age of ten. It does NOT scare us.

And that is what invalidates Prather's fantasy scenario: we've had almost 15 years to study Waco Rules now. Fifteen years of studying how to best direct the resources of the armed citizenry against the next predatory administration grown too big for its constitutional britches. Fifteen years of considering the lessons of Christmas, 1989. After the cold war with the Clintonistas, we gunnies began to understand the finer points of credible deterrence. Now, having completed a long and challenging curriculum, we certainly understand what Jefferson meant by "pardon and pacify them." It would be wiser if Mr. Prather and his historically foolish liberal friends did not seek to give us a final examination in this subject of study, for the results are NOT academic. Just ask Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu. Of course, you'll have to go to Hell to do that.

Mike Vanderboegh
PO Box 926
Pinson, AL 35126
GeorgeMason1776ATaolDOTcom

 

[rainbowbob]

Thread-lock in 5...4...3...

 

[dm1333]

I would disagree with this:

a. Woeful ignorance of the subject at hand,

b. Extrapolation of their own cowardice onto their opponents, i.e. expecting their opponents to react the way they do, and

c. Willful refusal to grasp that the Law of Unintended Consequences applies both to their world view and to the schemes that they use to enforce that world view upon the rest of us.

Too many people assume that the "liberals" are ignorant of the subject and are cowards. I would never paint a group of people with such a broad brush and I would never make the mistake of underestimating my opponent. Two perfect examples of that would be James Webb and Joe Murtha. I may not agree with something that they stand for, but I would never characterize them as ignorant or as cowards because they are members of the Democratic Party. You'll see plenty of reference here to "bleeding heart, big city, liberal northeners" in recent threads here. Hogwash.

I agree with a lot of your post but the biggest weakness I have seen with conservatives is to assume way too much based on too little information.

 

[rainbowbob]

...2...

 

[Technosavant]

Prather's argument depended entirely on a straw man- the thought that superior firepower ALWAYS wins. I wonder what he thought about Vietnam, and what he has recently said about Iraq.

Yet, he persists in his straw man argument, for one reason- his blithe dismissal. He said "So let's take that argument off the table." Yes, he cannot handle that argument, it just flat doesn't hold to up to the most simplistic scrutiny, so he just bypasses it by claiming that it is ludicrous to think otherwise.

Mr. Prather and logic must not correspond much anymore.

Any time somebody dismisses an argument, particularly one supported by history, in that cavalier a fashion, it only underscores the true weakness of their own arguments.

 

[ctdonath]

Well put article.

I've been recounting a highly abbreviated version for some time thus:

While the gov't won the conflicts at Waco and Ruby Ridge, they were Pyhrric victories, and such was not tried again for 15+ years.

Mr. Prather may be right insofar as if it's you vs. gov't, you probably won't win. The Branch Davidians didn't. Randy Weaver didn't (survived to win a case, but lost his family). Thousands of Romanians didn't. The 300 Spartans didn't. The South didn't. Occupants of The Alamo and the Warsaw Ghetto didn't. ...but in each of those "wins", the cost to the winner was so high the approach was abandoned.

This notion of what we could deem "the winning loss" even permeates our literature & movies (names akin to "Gladiator" momentarily escape me, but examples are numerous): the loner and small group may lose, but the price is worth the crippling of the winner.

...and sometimes the little guy, the small group, does win outright.

 

[LiquidTension]

I think that's the first time I've seen the Borg referenced when talking about Waco. No, I'm sure of it - it's a first.

 

[Rachen]

...and sometimes the little guy, the small group, does win outright.

A general who wins the heart of the people will win the country.

A tyrannical regime can impose the most ruthless rule over it's people, and still produce propaganda to make the people believe otherwise, HOWEVER, each victim of the hypothetical government's criminality will harbor lifelong hatred against it, as well as his/her family and friends. Over time, only atrocities become known, and propaganda becomes as worthless as fast food wrapping paper.

Zhi Bao Buliao Huo: Paper envelope cannot hide fire within. Even a lantern made of black silk will emit light.

 

[TexasSkyhawk]

A tyrannical regime can impose the most ruthless rule over it's people,

Sorry, Rachen, but when I read your thoughts and opinions such as your glee when the students at Tiananmen Square were ruthlessly killed, and you referred to them as "traiterous scum," your credibility with me is LESS than zero.

I spent over 20 years of my life carrying a gun and working to protect innocent citizens from the tyrranies imposed by governments like that of your "beloved, glorious Homeland." I fought in civil wars where simple folks only wanted the right of self-determination and freedom to choose who leads their villages, regions and country.

Your blatant hypocrisy coming on here and proselytizing about "rights and freedoms" and the use of arms to secure and defend them while simultaneously glorifying and defending one of the most cruel, dictatorial governments in the history of modern civilization makes me doubt your motives.

Even more amazing is that you're doing it on a forum founded, owned and administrated by a refugee from a similarly cruel and dictatorial government--of which the owner here has never praised or glorified that I know of.

I think it's time you join my Ignore list, and for a multitude of reasons.

Jeff

 

[Rachen]

I am sorry Jeff, but in order so this thread will not be closed, I just want to say this:

Whatever happens in China, stays in China. It is complicated, and even if I explained it in my best composition to other people, they wouldn't understand it. Sure, it looks like "students" being "crushed", but the story is far more complicated and twisted than you might think. I am born here but I studied China since I began to read and write, and I have access to the testimonies and primary-source documents of plenty of native Chinese. Therefore, I know a lot.

So I just want to say this. Please don't make assumptions about whatever is going on over there. It is a lot more complicated than you think. Please.

 

[CBS220]

I realize it's off topic, although the thread was already full of tinfoil... but your defense of the murder of many innocents and unarmed civilians in the face of that Chinese commie regime is beyond reproach. It's disgusting that you can even tolerate a government who would do that to (largely- and by credible, non Chinese-state run media outlets, almost entirely) nonviolent protesters.

You can't simply dismiss things out of hand by saying "Oh, I study this, I know more than you".

Quite frankly, I'll take the tripe the US media deals out and believe every word of it before I buy into a paragraph of what the Chinese government writes up!

The heart of the issue is not that it's "complicated". It's that a repressive, human-rights violating regime ran over protesters with tanks, and shot them, and etc... we don't shoot fascists and communists in the more civilized parts of the world, and it shouldn't be condoned elsewhere.

 

[Rachen]

Like I already said, and I am repeating myself, the events going on in China is a lot more complicated than anyone can possibly imagine, and one of the things I cannot begin to accept, is that these extremists groups would use the guise of nonviolent protest to make us look horrible. IT IS NOT WHAT YOU THINK.

The events that have happened in China is already bad enough. The thing we want least is having the whole world actually believing the lies that these groups make, and pitying them.

I am not going to say this anymore, since I am tired of repeating myself. You can believe me, you can distrust me, you can call me a liar, but it is much, much, much more complicated than you think.

 

[Justin]

Yeah, threads about violently resisting the government are totally under the purview of THR's charter to be "an online discussion board dedicated to the discussion and advancement of responsible firearms ownership."