I will tell you why the statistics are wrong and have always been wrong:
1. There is no legal requirement for an agency to send input to the FBI UCR.
2. There is no audit or other verification that the data reported is correct. It’s an honor system.
3. Politicians have been caught altering data submitted to make their city or county look better.
Crime statistics are like any other statistic the government collects.
Then there is the fact that the media doesn’t report every incident and most CAD (computer assisted dispatch) programs have a Not for News field that can be checked and that incident won’t be released on the blotter report to the media. Yes, there are valid reasons to mark incidents Not for News but it can also be used to create the impression that things are better than they really are.
One of the first things I discovered when I started in LE was how much went on even in a small town that the public wasn’t aware of.