What's the chance of Trump's SCOTUS pick in time for this: Gun rights groups ask Supreme Court to...

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Aim1

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If this case is granted cert, what's the chance of having Trump's SCOTUS pick in place by the time they make a hearing and ruling?



http://fox5sandiego.com/2017/01/13/...-end-state-restrictions-on-concealed-weapons/



Gun rights groups ask Supreme Court to end state restrictions on concealed weapons

POSTED 10:48 AM, JANUARY 13, 2017, BY CITY NEWS SERVICE

SAN DIEGO — The National Rifle Association and the California Rifle & Pistol Association have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review a case brought by a part-time San Diego resident and other gun owners regarding their right to carry a concealed weapon in public.

The case stems from a 2009 lawsuit filed by Edward Peruta and other gun owners who were denied concealed-carry permits.

In 2014, a three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals held that the San Diego County Sheriff’s restrictive ”good cause” policy for the issuance of a concealed carry license violates the Second Amendment.
 
Trump has indicated that the nomination will happen within a couple of weeks of inauguration. Rules of the Senate will probably end up allowing confirmation with 51 votes, so confirmation may not take long. What are the odds? Unknown. But it's going to be an interesting trip.
 
Trump has indicated that the nomination will happen within a couple of weeks of inauguration. Rules of the Senate will probably end up allowing confirmation with 51 votes, so confirmation may not take long. What are the odds? Unknown. But it's going to be an interesting trip.


So, Trump's new SCOTUS pick could be on the bench by Spring.....and they wouldn't even look to grant cert on this case until Fall probably, right?
 
With an evenly divided court would they even consider to hear a contentious case until the ninth justice is seated?
 
By the time any case reaches the SCOTUS it is already a contentious case. They have been hearing cases with 8 judges and if they deadlock the last lower court ruling stands.
 
they won't hear the case until the seat is filled just my opinion ymmv


When does SCOTUS hear cases to grant cert? Wouldn't it be the summer or fall? If so, wouldn't Trump's pick most likely be seated by then?
 
- See CA law makers do bad things to take away guns people enjoy

- Fear CA not finished until law makers take away all the joy of owning and shooting guns

- See people of CA get mad, angry, depressed and some leave

- Don't become like California

To prevent your state becoming like CA, vote out anti 2A law makers and vote in pro 2A law makers.
 
SCOTUS wouldn't grant cert on any gun cases while Scalia was still drawing breath, they sure as heck won't now.

TCB
 
When does SCOTUS hear cases to grant cert?
Granting cert(iorari) happens first; this means "we'll look at it." At that point they docket/schedule is figured out, which determines when the arguments occur (they occur during the warmer months, coincidentally, so Ginsburg can thaw out)

TCB
 
With an evenly divided court would they even consider to hear a contentious case until the ninth justice is seated?
What makes you think the court is evenly divided on gun issues? Kennedy has said repeatedly he has buyer's remorse over Heller, so we're in a 5-3 situation, which is why the four remaining pro-ish gun justices weren't agreeing to hear cases (Thomas, Scalia, Alito, Roberts). Kennedy is no longer even a 'wildcard' on this issue, and Roberts has proven *exceedingly* unreliable on then bench when it comes to challenging policy with powerful government backing. To be honest, they will most likely continue to refuse hearing more gun cases until Ginsburg finally drops.

TCB
 
Rules of the Senate will probably end up allowing confirmation with 51 votes, so confirmation may not take long.

No. Supreme Court nominations can be filibustered. Reid's "nuclear option" only applied to nominations below the Supreme Court level. Trump will have to negotiate some other "quid pro quo" to get his Supreme Court pick out of the Senate. This will take a long time. Meanwhile, an 8-member Supreme Court will not hear any gun cases. Sorry to rain on everybody's parade.
 
- See CA law makers do bad things to take away guns people enjoy

- Fear CA not finished until law makers take away all the joy of owning and shooting guns

- See people of CA get mad, angry, depressed and some leave

- Don't become like California

To prevent your state becoming like CA, vote out anti 2A law makers and vote in pro 2A law makers.
California’s firearm regulatory measures are consistent with current Second Amendment jurisprudence, until the Supreme Court rules otherwise; consequently, California is not ‘anti-Second Amendment,’ to maintain otherwise is ignorant and wrong.

Moreover, California’s firearm regulatory measures are enacted at the behest of the people of the state by their elected representatives, reflecting the will of a majority of the people of the state, where the will of the people of a state should be respected when they act in a manner in step with Constitutional case law.

Should the laws governing the issuance of concealed carry permits in California be invalidated by the Supreme Court, the state’s laws will continue to be consistent with Second Amendment jurisprudence, jurisprudence which is still in its infancy and will continue to evolve for decades to come.
 
Sorry jdc1244, but several of the politicians in CA have said they want all guns out of CA, including the most likely next governor, and will work to get it achieved.

That's anti 2A no matter how you want to rephrase it.

The desire of the majority should never trample the Rights of the miniority.
 
The desire of the majority should never trample the Rights of the miniority.
That's why the founding fathers chose a constitutional republic where the majority could not take away the rights of the minority instead of a democracy where the majority could override the minority.

That's why we also have the electoral college.

What happened in California is democracy at work where the minority has no voice.

Do not become like California.
 
I cannot stand California. I really hope #Caliexit works. I am actually doing what I can to help it. I would love to see them leave the union.
 
I cannot stand California. I really hope #Caliexit works. I am actually doing what I can to help it. I would love to see them leave the union.

The United States doesn't have an exit clause like the EU does. In Justice Scalia's words: "If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede."
 
That damned state was paid for in the blood of patriots. People can secede, as has been amply demonstrated by any and every liberal, but states cannot.
 
California’s firearm regulatory measures are consistent with current Second Amendment jurisprudence, until the Supreme Court rules otherwise; consequently, California is not ‘anti-Second Amendment,’ to maintain otherwise is ignorant and wrong.
So, you really think the Supreme Court will uphold assault weapon bans that restrict the vast majority of options available outside California to those inside California, ever increasing toward the openly-stated goal of an outright ban on an entire class of firearms (autoloaders). Gotcha.

The only 'jurisprudence' regarding AWBs is the lack thereof; there haven't been any cases seriously challenging the laws that *also* garnered serious, thoughtful responses from judges (just some lower-level cases where the ignorant wise men voted to uphold because "that's just silly to let people have assault guns" that don't really carry much precedent, or argument)

TCB
 
The United States doesn't have an exit clause like the EU does. In Justice Scalia's words: "If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede."
Scalia was right, but this was also an area where Lincoln was in stark disagreement with most of the founding fathers of only forty years prior. Lincoln himself at times spoke favorably of dissolving bonds of federalism where abuses were present and disagreements intractable, but framed the South's ambitions as illegitimate due to their continued institution of slavery (even though that logic doesn't really follow, despite Lincoln being a very smart man) and because he felt it threatened the continued existence of the remaining Union (again, logic that doesn't really follow, but necessitates a pragmatic course of action by the Union to quell the rebellion)

TCB
 
Should the laws governing the issuance of concealed carry permits in California be invalidated by the Supreme Court, the state’s laws will continue to be consistent with Second Amendment jurisprudence, jurisprudence which is still in its infancy and will continue to evolve for decades to come.
Isn't that just incredible, considering how our nation is nearly 250 years old, with gun control of the type being challenged on the books for about one hundred of that? And highly controversial the entire time of its existence? It'd be like the rise & fall of Temperance or the (racial) Civil Rights movement coming to pass with only a couple incidental Supreme Court cases of any relevance (and largely ignored). I'm continually fascinated by just how long the blind eye has been turned to this issue, and wonder at the cause, since it isn't like the Court is shy about weighing in on technical issues they are ignorant of, or moral issues they have questionable legal precedent to draw upon.

My theory is they really, really, really don't want to look too closely at this issue, for fear of the obvious conclusion they'll reach.

TCB
 
"SCOTUS wouldn't grant cert on any gun cases while Scalia was still drawing breath, they sure as heck won't now."

This^^^^^^^^

With Scalia sitting on the court SCOTUS allowed the Highland Park, IL "assault weapons" ban to stand. SCOTUS has not granted cert in several other Second Amendment cases. Several lawyers who argue appeals before SCOTUS believe the court is through with the Second Amendment.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-supreme-court-assault-weapon-20151207-story.html
 
Several lawyers who argue appeals before SCOTUS believe the court is through with the Second Amendment.

"Vee have vays, of mekking you tock."

Much as is the case for the senate, the next decade carries rather high likelihood of the replacement of more consistently liberal justices. Either that, or precedent will be established for opinions dictated via Ouija Board.

TCB
 
"SCOTUS wouldn't grant cert on any gun cases while Scalia was still drawing breath, they sure as heck won't now."

Many people are saying this but what about McDonald and Heller?

Forgive my ignorance if there is any....
 
"Many people are saying this but what about McDonald and Heller?"

Read Heller carefully. Heller is not a resounding confirmation of our Second Amendment rights. IMO: The appeals courts are simply following Heller:

"Like most rights, the right secured by the Second Amendment is not unlimited. From Blackstone through the 19th-century cases, commentators and courts routinely explained that the right was not a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose. See, e.g., Sheldon, in 5 Blume 346; Rawle 123; Pomeroy 152–153; Abbott 333. For example, the majority of the 19th-century courts to consider the question held that prohibitions on carrying concealed weapons were lawful under the Second Amendment or state analogues. See, e.g., State v. Chandler, 5 La. Ann., at 489–490; Nunn v. State, 1 Ga., at 251; see generally 2 Kent *340, n. 2; The American Students’ Blackstone 84, n. 11 (G. Chase ed. 1884).

Although we do not undertake an exhaustive historical analysis today of the full scope of the Second Amendment, nothing in our opinion should be taken to cast doubt on longstanding prohibitions on the possession of firearms by felons and the mentally ill, or laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in sensitive places such as schools and government buildings, or laws imposing conditions and qualifications on the commercial sale of arms.26

We also recognize another important limitation on the right to keep and carry arms. Miller said, as we have explained, that the sorts of weapons protected were those “in common use at the time.” 307 U. S., at 179. We think that limitation is fairly supported by the historical tradition of prohibiting the carrying of “dangerous and unusual weapons.”"
 
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