Where are gun prices going ??

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Mr. Redneckrepairs,
I was only pointing out there are very many ways of looking at gun values....in a way, they are at all-time lows when compared to prices of consumables that nobody can do without.
There was no dig at the (all stand, please) Redblooded All-American Farmer, as I grew up on a small family farm and know all about getting up before sunrise to feed chickens, slop hogs, and milk cows, plus bunches of backbreaking labor in fields before the big operations with big equipment came along....
 
Sir, I did not take it as a dig of any kind. I am just trying to map out the future of collectible firearms and I figured this was a good place to get input. You address me as Mr redneckrepairs ? Is this because of my poor tying skills,, ? If so I understand and yes I have slopped hogs a few hogs myself and feed 200 head of cattle to this day but for how long I do not know. I have taken the largest portion of my farm operation out of cattle and have been raising corn, I know all about the All-American Farmer. God Bless this country and those who grow our food.
John
 
Nope, replying to another poster on the thread...personal feeling on investment guns being most folk can't afford true investment guns....investment guns being those so rare and expensive that only the very wealthy can afford them....ornate early guns, rare Winchesters, that sort of thing....only the buyer guarantees the value, and wealthy buyers are what it takes to maintain value.

All the complaining about higher prices is being blamed on sellers.....like gasoline prices, it's the buyers who are driving up prices....if nobody bought at high prices, the prices WOULD fall.
 
Cold Hard Truth,,

Thank You for letting me know he was replying to another member, I appreciate that, sorry for the confusion. Also let me commend you on your answer, I think you hit the nail on the head. I think the buyers control the market not the sellers,,, He who pays too much is the one driving up the prices/market. The seller is just along for the ride. I am glad to pay 4 bucks a gallon for gas. Dont get me wrong, I dont like the price but I do like the product. I aint gonna walk,,,, I'm gonna ride.
John
 
Collectible gun prices have undergone a ramp-up the last five/six years because of a few factors:

1) the internet, which has created a national, instead of local marketplace
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You know, that is very interesting to me that this has happened with guns. It seems to me that the internet has hurt the value of a number of other collectables.
 
Didn't they make the Terrier from the mid-30s to the mid-'70s? I know some of them got used, and used up, but there must be some nice ones left in circulation. I found one on GA that sold for $695, but that still seems too high.

Who knows which guns will be valuable tomorrow. I never thought I'd see people paying $400 or $500 or more for a Winchester Model 72 (sort of inexpensive .22 bolt action) and that much or more for a Remington Nylon 76 lever action .22.

Here's a Nylon 76, "never fired", with an asking price of $995.

www.gunsamerica.com/915016493/Guns-...YLON_76_LEVER_ACTION_22CAL_BEST_I_VE_SEEN.htm

And I thought I overpaid for the pretty nice one I gave my uncle a few years ago. HA! That $450 seems downright cheap now.

John

P.S. - You know all of that money that was going into real estate investments and the stock market? For the time being it's going into other things. That will change eventually and the price pressure in some sectors will ease off.
 
You can try to talk up prices if you want, but it would be wiser to sit back and wait...
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I think the same, that's why I never bid early in an internet auction.
Early bidding does nothing but driving up the price.

If you're really up to something, you wait and watch, just like a Mountain Lion and you act up to the situation at the moment of truth :D

BTW, I think the CA ban is lifted when it comes to anything older than 1940-50.
I am not into those items, but I think from there and older CA considers it rather a collectible then a firearm. So, imports are possible.

I never buy at MSRP. Usually way below, which helps at least to control a possible loss.

An investment can have different attributes, such as stable value, or value increase/loss option.

Even a 686 can be a solid investment.
It's value may not increase to dwindling heights, but if you buy at a price low enough, it also won't fall thru the bottom.

If you treat it well and keep it in good condition, it can achieve proper resale $$$, which together with increasing inflation rates can still be considerable.
 
Good example. Lucky seller. Must have been a bunch of folks really after it.
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Which brings up a good point: What is happening can be as important to sellers as it is to buyers.

The true value of something is what someone else will pay to get it. :scrutiny:
 
Invest: Does it cash flow?

Buy investment grade guns only if you love the guns.

A investment that you can't quickly liquidate is tied up working capital.

With the economy tanking, there will be lots of potential buys.

If you are going to be a serious firearm investor, then become a licensed gun dealer so that you can go to estate sales and easily acquire guns.

Buy doing this, you can now have business related expenses.

Of course you won't be able to take vacations with your family, but you can take them with you on your "business trips" that you make while you are prospecting for gun purchases from estates.
 
I assume they will keep going up. Gun and ammo prices are tied closely to three factors...

1-The cost of raw materials
2-The cost of energy
3-The political environment at large

... currently none of the three look too good.
 
All I can say is you guy have some great views on the subject ,actual and factual. I like that !! Concrete answers and a good forum. Solid !
John
 
Nicki,
You are correct about your statement
'' A investment that you can't quickly liquidate is tied up working capital ''.

True investment grade guns are liquid, but so many people buy the wrong items thinking they are buying investment grade guns. People buy what they like and assume they are investing there money wisely, sometimes yes and most of the time no. I hate to see people buy the wrong items and get dissapointed when they go to cash out. But its trial and error we all have bought the wrong things sometime or another,, I dont remember all of my winners but I can tell you every loser I ever had. It sticks with you. A old man once told me how to succeed in gun investing ,,,,, his word was participate. He said those books are simply for reference,, those guy writing price books make their living writing books not buying and selling guns.
John
 
I've bought, sold, traded guns off and on for years, along with antiques. Old rule of thumb, people with money to invest, invest in quality items as a hedge.

When time get hard, like they are now, look around. People are looking to sell and people are looking to buy. The nicer stuff will continue to rise because it will get scarcer. I can say I don't come across too many deals on good antiques anymore, the stuff just isn't out there. I don't even bother anymore. Best bet, buy what you personally like, at a fair price, don't worry too much about it.


I could have bought nice cased A5 Belgian Brownings years ago for 400 to 600 a pop. Had I done that, and sold when Browning stopped producing them, nice return. Now the prices are more in line.

However, there are folks that "want" a gun and will pay better than top dollar for it. They will see little return out of it, and maybe a loss when they sell. Those are some of the guns to look for, if the folks who bought them realize they can/will/have to sell at a loss.

I look at it this way, if I pay X for a gun to shoot, shoot it, enjoy it, own it for X amount of time. I can depreciate it accordingly to a fair level and move it on to someone else who can do the same. Odds are, enough time has gone by that when he move's it, it's worth more and brings more.

Buy one as an investment, best bet is buying nice solid guns, with lower production numbers. Embellishments are great to look at, but are they worth the upfront cost with the hope of the better return at the end?
Some are, some aren't.

I picked up two pistols out of an estate several years ago. One, a Colt SAA 1873 I sold. The other an Iver Johnson "Sealed 8" .22 I kept. Plenty of Colt SAA's out there, not as many Sealed 8's.
 
Dryhumor,
Its funny you bring up antiques,, that is what I have done all my life. I broke in buying small estates when I was young. I have always bought and sold fine antiques it goes hand in hand with guns. People want nice all original unmolested items, and they want the best. What we call honest items and the good items in demand more than ever even in these tough times. Its a tough game anymore, I collect gas pumps coke machines roseville watt griswold duck decoys porcelain signs and turn of the centry items, brass cash registers cofee grinders ect but I cant find enough stuff anymore to keep my interest. Ten years ago the stuff was around, but it all has been ebayed and the good stuff is locked away in collections. The days of the barn find is over,, but I still look.
John
 
Yep, I look too, but not too hard.

I've found decent guns at fair prices just by asking folks if they have any while visiting yard sales and whatnot. Or, someone knows someone kind of a thing. Once in awhile a treasure turns up.

Forget about the estate auctions. The prices seem to really climb, plus the buyer's premium, plus the taxes.

I spoke to a fellow a couple of months back about "semi safe queen", a model 19 .357. It was listed locally for $600. Maybe it's just me, but I just didn't see any sanity in paying $600 for a gun that I had bought new for $250 in 1981.

Yeah, he had the box, paper, etc. But at that price, it just wasn't an investment. At that price it was a gun to shoot and enjoy, though somewhere around $450-500 would have been more enjoyable.
 
Prices are extremely high for sure, but when a plastic glock cost you 550.00 a good old smith dont seem so bad at 600.00. They all cost too much but so does everything else. I personally would rather have a 99% gun for 500 than a new in the box for 800.00 . I can shoot and enjoy the cheaper gun and I dont have to worry about it so much. I have the safe queens and I have the shooters,, the nice shooters are my favorite for sure but the new in the box gun will sell faster than the 99% shooter even at almost double the price. Cardboard and paper is whats got expensive. Colts SAA black boxes are literally worth their weight in gold.
John
 
Personally, I’m watching the phenomenon of internet gun sales quite closely. It is probably a REAL education in economics. I’m certain that history will look back on this with great interest in not only guns but all commerce taking place on the net.

The key term is “Speculation”. Take a look at the price of oil today. The steep climb of oil prices is directly tied to the increased activities of the speculators after the deregulation on them at the end of the 90’s. We live in a society were “Making a Profit” no matter how it’s done, is admired and encouraged. The question in my mind is, "Where do we draw the line and should we draw the line?” I believe that the free market will correct itself, but in the meantime we do need to keep a close eye on SPECULATION.

Look at the mess the housing industry is in. Once again, the speculators have been driving up housing costs dramatically in the last 20 years. Now, due to the over inflated costs and the potential of losses by the average American whose life savings are tied to this market, the government is forced to bail the system out. Once again the speculators have been hard at work.

You can read various opinions on this subject as it applies to the gun market in many of the gun forums on the net. Look at the poster who starts out “Look at what I found this weekend. Model X gun at the unbelievably low price of $XXX.” Then they go on to crow about their great fortune because the internet dictates that this gun is most certainly worth 3 or 4 times what they paid for it.

I believe that you can divide the gun market in to two categories. There are true collectors/hobbyists who acquire their guns purely for the sake of collecting and shooting. Then there are the speculators who prey on the collectors/hobbyists for the purpose of making a profit. As I said, I am watching this with great interest. Most all of the true collectors I am familiar with are getting older and this market will dry up through attrition. There are very few young collectors that I have met. The younger individuals are in this buying and selling every day on the net and at the gun shows. They are out there selling books and running auctions. They scrape their profits right off the top. This is very similar to the casinos of Las Vegas or the horse racing tracks around the country.

The speculators always take the position that this is America and I am free to make my profit because this is the land of the free. Well, I have no argument with that. When the market corrects, as it most certainly will, the only question will be, “Who will be left holding the bag?” As the speculator always points out that it is their right to make a profit, I am of the opinion that it is imperative that the collector/hobbyist bring their side to the light of day so that the most deserving are the ones “Left Holding the Bag”.

Remember the famous quote, "There's a sucker born every minute."
 
Supply and Demand,, its a crazy thing. The people who do not put up a few nice old guns will be left holding the bag. The bag full of regret. I am convinced you cannot pay to much for the best. I may be wrong but when a 71 Cuda brings over a million bucks at Barrett-Jackson and K-22 are bringing 800.00 it makes you want to invest in high end high condition items. The key words here are " The Best " mediocre is still mediocre 50 years from now. Buy the best and keep the boxes,,, :p ENJOY YOUR COLLECTION AND CASH OUT IN 20 YEARS,, ITS A WIN WIN,,, !!!!!!!!!!
John
 
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